March 2021 Weather Discussion

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like all three ensemble suites are a pretty safe whiff.

LOL a week out

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

LOL a week out

You had a good winter dude, no need to desperately chase ghosts. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Summer is here 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You had a good winter dude, no need to desperately chase ghosts. 

C'mon man. Play nice. Bunch of bullies in here. What's worse is there are several of the same people who are always so quick to judge others, but dont like being critiqued. Im sure I'll get some choice comments as well, but I could give 2 shits. 

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

C'mon man. Play nice. Bunch of bullies in here. What's worse is there are several of the same people who are always so quick to judge others, but dont like being critiqued. Im sure I'll get some choice comments as well, but I could give 2 shits. 

He knows what I am saying. We are cool. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Summer is here 

Enjoy your 10 weeks of April.

[SouthCoastMA]

I give it a 1/5 shot. Not dead 

[Ginx snewx]

 

[SouthCoastMA]

Because I'm bored, the 18z GFS ensembles for day 8 - a few hits, most notably a 956mb near Nantucket. Long shots obviously but fun to look at

 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Because I'm bored, the 18z GFS ensembles for day 8 - a few hits, most notably a 956mb near Nantucket. Long shots obviously but fun to look at

 

Ha. So it takes a 956 nuclear bomb to get a low inside the BM. 975 and it's way out to sea. Looks like better chances for a 1038 high vs a low.

[George001]

Just now, dendrite said:

Ha. So it takes a 956 nuclear bomb to get a low inside the BM. 975 and it's way out to sea. Looks like better chances for a 1038 high vs a low.

With a low that strong it could easily still produce even if the low is a bit offshore. March 13th 2018 was a similar setup with a late phase, and the low was in the 970s and about 200 mi se of cape cod. Normally this is too far offshore to produce a huge blizzard. However, in this case the storm was so big that despite being far offshore  the precip shield was extremely expansive and we ended up getting a massive blizzard in eastern mass anyways. In my opinion even those 975mb lows would produce due to how big the precip shield will be. That said, the 956mb low over Nantucket would be a historic blizzard, it would likely rival feb 1978 in terms of snow amounts (I’m not calling for that though, pattern supports something more offshore than that).

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not sure why people are so pessimistic.

The EPS wasn't a bad look 168hrs out. Other ensembles look similar.

There's been a sharpening of the PNA ridge and strengthening Greenland block ahead of the system. 

Nearly every system has trended west as we got closer. I'm all-in on this. It's the last threat of the season...go big or go home.

Good speed and stay safe.

[Typhoon Tip]

there's the Crocus pusher pattern ... La Nina knocking on the door ? 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

there's the Crocus pusher pattern ... La Nina knocking on the door ? 

Tip “walking by Fox Hall during the torch of March 1991 seeing the college women in bikini tops tanning on blankets and frisbees being thrown around” post incoming.....

[Henry's Weather]

41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ha. So it takes a 956 nuclear bomb to get a low inside the BM. 975 and it's way out to sea. Looks like better chances for a 1038 high vs a low.

January 2018 vibes

[dendrite]

53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Or the GEFS just suck. EPS had that cold shot even at d10.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Or the GEFS just suck. EPS had that cold shot even at d10.

True more intrigued with 50 50 and NAO. Hopefully one of those cases  where modeling loses a system day 7 8 and then gradually bring it back

[Torch Tiger]

gfs looks toasty after our 2ft. blizzard

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

gfs looks toasty after our 2ft. blizzard

I told Tip I’m on board with a 15F blizzard and then 70F 3-4 days later. Let’s lock it in. 

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I told Tip I’m on board with a 15F blizzard and then 70F 3-4 days later. Let’s lock it in. 

Was reviewing some Feb 15 stats. Didn't realize the Feb and March 15 2 month period holds the record for the coldest against normal 60 day period. Of course the snow records are insane but I forgot how cold March was, -7 or so.

  I am intrigued how often March 77 and 96 keep showing up in analogs. False spring then mid month shenanigans? Always funny when people are in full spring mode then boom a week to 10 days of winter returns.  I guess it's human nature to rush seasons. Winter has a way of showing up in Mid March some years to much surprise. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Was reviewing some Feb 15 stats. Didn't realize the Feb and March 15 2 month period holds the record for the coldest against normal 60 day period. Of course the snow records are insane but I forgot how cold March was, -7 or so.

  I am intrigued how often March 77 and 96 keep showing up in analogs. False spring then mid month shenanigans? Always funny when people are in full spring mode then boom a week to 10 days of winter returns.  I guess it's human nature to rush seasons. Winter has a way of showing up in Mid March some years to much surprise. 

RE: 2015....I actually think it is the coldest JFM for both ORH and BOS. Not just Feb/Mar though I could be wrong. I was working on the seaport that season and I vividly remember Boston Harbor being still totally frozen mid-March. I actually remember when it broke up a few days later. Started Mar 17 and then really accelerated Mar 18 that year...happens fast once it starts to break.

As for ‘96 and ‘77....different timing but both had a faux spring....’77 was early March and ‘96 was late Feb (like Feb 20-24)....a lot of people forget that late Feb ‘96 torch because everyone remembers the ridiculous Jan ‘96 one. 2nd half of Mar ‘77 was big...esp over interior.  

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RE: 2015....I actually think it is the coldest JFM for both ORH and BOS. Not just Feb/Mar though I could be wrong. I was working on the seaport that season and I vividly remember Boston Harbor being still totally frozen mid-March. I actually remember when it broke up a few days later. Started Mar 17 and then really accelerated Mar 18 that year...happens fast once it starts to break.

As for ‘96 and ‘77....different timing but both had a faux spring....’77 was early March and ‘96 was late Feb (like Feb 20-24)....a lot of people forget that late Feb ‘96 torch because everyone remembers the ridiculous Jan ‘96 one. 2nd half of Mar ‘77 was big...esp over interior.  

Yeah 96 was torched end of Feb. March 77 started torchy.  Southern NE snow then central and NNE . ORH caught both. I believe March 77 is ORH 5th snowiest March. I was dating a girl from Auburn and we used to go to dinner and concerts in Orh. I remember the stark difference in snow from my dorm at URI. Think the month ended though with like 85 degrees lol 

[Typhoon Tip]

There’s probably a lot of different metrics for analog computations but the ENSO -to me - looks a lot like 1976 and 2012 ..,

Both those year did well abv normal MAM’s 

I’m curious how ‘77 and ‘96 are comparing. 

1996 was neutral negative so there’s that.

I don’t know. I think the HC aspects are also skewing everything too. Analogs are obscuring when the thens did not immerse in the circumstances of the now ... etc

[PhineasC]

11 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I was wondering what those upslope guys do when it snows 1-2 inches every other day, snow blow or a quick shovel. I'd rather get it all once and blow it.

I leave it and then plow when it piles up to 6” or so. 

[MJO812]

PV over Maine on the GFS , Para and CMC.

Squashes and shreds storm

[WinterWolf]

51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Was reviewing some Feb 15 stats. Didn't realize the Feb and March 15 2 month period holds the record for the coldest against normal 60 day period. Of course the snow records are insane but I forgot how cold March was, -7 or so.

  I am intrigued how often March 77 and 96 keep showing up in analogs. False spring then mid month shenanigans? Always funny when people are in full spring mode then boom a week to 10 days of winter returns.  I guess it's human nature to rush seasons. Winter has a way of showing up in Mid March some years to much surprise. 

Great post!

And just like summer seems to hang on, or return mid September many times also, after a lil autumn preview early on in late August/early September.  Gotta be careful not to jump the gun on both ends of the season. 

[George001]

Uh oh, the low on the Canadian disappeared! I’m not going to lie, that’s concerning. I’m not going to write the storm off but not what I wanted to see. Hopefully the euro and navy look better tonight.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Uh oh, the low on the Canadian disappeared! I’m not going to lie, that’s concerning. I’m not going to write the storm off but not what I wanted to see. Hopefully the euro and navy look better tonight.

Stop with the NAVGEM...it absolutely BLOWS!  You might as well look at the CRAS (but it’s been discontinued, and for a reason, just like the NAVGEM should be) for God sakes. And we’re 7-8 days out. Please Grow up George. 

[weathafella]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

PV over Maine on the GFS , Para and CMC.

Squashes and shreds storm

That’s like agreement between the Mariners, the Pirates, and the Rockies.

[George001]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Stop with the NAVGEM...it absolutely BLOWS!  You might as well look at the CRAS (but it’s been discontinued, and for a reason, just like the NAVGEM should be) for God sakes. And we’re 7-8 days out. Please Grow up George. 

I know we are 7-8 days out, that’s why I said I’m not writing off the storm. However it’s important to be realistic, when one of the best models we have goes from a near miss with a strong storm just offshore to not even having a low that’s not a shift that can just be ignored. Maybe the Canadian picked up on something it didn’t before, but it could also just be an off run. Also you are wrong about the navy, it’s actually a great model if it’s used correctly. I strongly disagree with what you are saying about the navy. The navy has done a great job with catching onto real threats (2/1/21) and not biting on phantom threats (late jan). The navy does have a southeast bias, but it’s a useful tool. Its a great model in the mid-long range in identifying real vs fantasy storm threats. When the navy is on board for a big storm, even when other guidance is out to sea often it is picking up on something and it is a mistake to ignore that. It is usually saying that the other guidance is wrong and will correct west. On phantom threats, the navy often doesn’t even have a low. On the other hand the gfs, a model that many live and die by is absolutely horrible, it doesn’t even have a consistent bias, it’s just all over the place. It’s absolutely horrible at identifying patterns in the long range, and jumps around in the short range more than any other model. It’s honestly not even worth looking at, I personally don’t use it at all when making my forecasts. When my forecasts bust, if anything it’s because I’m not weighting the navy heavily enough if anything.