HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 At least something to watch. Odds are low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 Could be wild late Monday night and early Tuesday. Squalls and wind? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Could be wild late Monday night and early Tuesday. Squalls and wind? Ginx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup Negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ginx? Probably already splashed twice just looking at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It would be Thursday or Friday . Not 8+ Lol...for what it’s worth, the overnight Euro has whatever it is for Sunday. Not Thursday. I’ll be sledding this weekend...so it should be a hit cuz I’ll be gone. Enjoy all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Euro Para closer at 0z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 Kevin going cold and dry? Been a tough winter for the KFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin going cold and dry? Been a tough winter for the KFS. Cold and dry? I don’t see any semblance of your warm and wet call the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Let's kick that NM energy eastward by half-a-day, then we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Better example here. If we can get the trough axis over ETX to ELA..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Cold and dry? I don’t see any semblance of your warm and wet call the next few weeks. Because I didn’t have that. But it looks warm after the first week of Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Def need to speed up that southern stream just a bit and it would probably pull this storm back in for a hit. Of course, that’s simplistic “all else equal”...other variables could change too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Probably already splashed twice just looking at it. Been quietly admiring the down playing of that cold shot and squalls by NWS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because I didn’t have that. But it looks warm after the first week of Morch. Warm and wet is fine. Let's give that a try because the "pattern" since the beginning of Feb has been shit. Can I just get one coherent, semi-potent low pressure system to pass to my south and toss 0.5" of liquid equivalent up here? Just one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 I frankly have seen nothing that offers any specific focus of improved chances in the overnight. Basically still what we were looking at over the bevy of guidance yesterday. Although the CPC telecon tended warmer in the AO. The GGEM collapsed back to longer term velocity/progression look - not sure why I spend much time with this model as I do.. Only because it's bandied about by NCP ... AFDs and in here and I'm "sheepling" it. Maybe someone has some nsight as to its usefulness. But, it opened that phantom ( we suspected its falsity - ) trough and favors its extended toward lifting out winter. It sends everyone E of the Divide by S of the border through a Chinook processor and solid spring temp spread by D10... The Euro lags that by perhaps a day, but ultimately ends up there by reasonable error/~ half day...clearly extrapolating just beyond the end of that run toward a +8 F afternoon bath for the same area as a general theme.. The GFS has done what it always does between March and July ...every 5th cycle: instead of morphing the pattern steadily toward spring and beyond, ..it merely takes the average January 20th map and scales up in heights and thickness. oh god - we have to deal with that piece of shit antic all summer with V16 now too, don't we. In general the models look to me like they are being physically modified by two sensitivities: - lingering gradient richness and the same battle of extended amplitude failing to hold into nearer term progressivity/velocity gauntlet ... that is routinely wnning and damping those robust systems into pedestrian normalcy or less.. - seasonal curvature shortening/ .. flow relaxation is trying to kick in ...in the heels of that, so a bit of transition bug. I noticed this three days ago, and it's been getting more prevalent The 00z Euro's extended again picks up on this and the GGEM (ugh) now shows it too; the entire Canadian shield cold reserve is rather abruptly modified by a goodly amount in the sub 700 mb troposphere ...pretty much everywhere S of 60 N.. The deep -30 plumes are no longer loading off a flat -EPO quasi arc over the NE Pacific ( that was kind of unnoticed by the way...) over the last couple of weeks. cold relaxes..gradient relaxes... flow slows and buckles... that may open the the door for La Nina and HC to engulf the hemisphere * just a guess. Our entire scope of the hemisphere can flip in a hurry. I do think/suggest that through D7 .. 9 ... there is a pinch low potential, perhaps even one more R-wave integrated. And though the 2nd bullet above ... keep in mind, that is not intended as any instantaneous distinction. It may take a week or so after D9 ... gee, like March does sometimes. There can be bowling balls .. However, as that transition occurs, the R-wave anchored low chances drop "precipitously" beyond D9... and that leaves the rarer bowling ball climo dependency ... Anyway, summary: feels like the same sort of "maybe-ism" we saw during yesterday, for D6-9, was put on display overnight - so... maybe for storm/winter enthusiast, it's not taking away. I was hoping the CPC PNA coverage might show that bulge edging into positive SD... but if anything it went south by a quarter point. Still there though.. EPS notwithstanding... it trend more robust with western heights, but less with the down stream trough D7-8 .. negotiable Someone else mentioned 1997 April.. I almost get the feeling that although there is nothing specific that remotely resembles that at this time... this "feels" like the type of spring that would deliver back-to-back 67 F afternoons, with a 33 F blue bomb ... then 66 two days later. But that's just my mood at this moment.. blah blah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Warm and wet is fine. Let's give that a try because the "pattern" since the beginning of Feb has been shit. Can I just get one coherent, semi-potent low pressure system to pass to my south and toss 0.5" of liquid equivalent up here? Just one? I think it’s hilarious you have snow up to your taint and you’re still angry. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I frankly have seen nothing that offers any specific focus of improved chances in the overnight. Basically still what we were looking at over the bevy of guidance yesterday. Although the CPC telecon tended warmer in the AO. The GGEM collapsed back to longer term velocity/progression look - not sure why I spend much time with this model as I do.. Only because it's bandied about by NCP ... AFDs and in here and I'm "sheepling" it. Maybe someone has some nsight as to its usefulness. But, it opened that phantom ( we suspected its falsity - ) trough and favors its extended toward lifting out winter. It sends everyone E of the Divide by S of the border through a Chinook processor and solid spring temp spread by D10... The Euro lags that by perhaps a day, but ultimately ends up there by reasonable error/~ half day...clearly extrapolating just beyond the end of that run toward a +8 F afternoon bath for the same area as a general theme.. The GFS has done what it always does between March and July ...every 5th cycle: instead of morphing the pattern steadily toward spring and beyond, ..it merely takes the average January 20th map and scales up in heights and thickness. oh god - we have to deal with that piece of shit antic all summer with V16 now too, don't we. In general the models look to me like they are being physically modified by two sensitivities: - lingering gradient richness and the same battle of extended amplitude failing to hold into nearer term progressivity/velocity gauntlet ... that is routinely wnning and damping those robust systems into pedestrian normalcy or less.. - seasonal curvature shortening/ .. flow relaxation is trying to kick in ...in the heels of that, so a bit of transition bug. I noticed this three days ago, and it's been getting more prevalent The 00z Euro's extended again picks up on this and the GGEM (ugh) now shows it too; the entire Canadian shield cold reserve is rather abruptly modified by a goodly amount in the sub 700 mb troposphere ...pretty much everywhere S of 60 N.. The deep -30 plumes are no longer loading off a flat -EPO quasi arc over the NE Pacific ( that was kind of unnoticed by the way...) over the last couple of weeks. With out that, ...? In La Nina and HC ... Our entire scope of the hemisphere can flip in a hurry. I do think/suggest that through D7 .. 9 ... there is a pinch low potential, perhaps even one more R-wave integrated. And though the 2nd bullet above ... keep in mind, that is not intended as any instantaneous distinction. It may take a week or so after D9 ... gee, like March does sometimes. There can be bowling balls .. R-wave anchored low chance, however, appear to drop "precipitously" beyond D9... and that leaves the rarer bowling ball climo ... Someone else mentioned 1997 April.. I almost get the feeling that although there is nothing specific that remotely resembles that at this time... this "feels" like the type of spring that would deliver back-to-back 67 F afternoons, with a 33 F blue bomb ... then 66 two days later. But that's just my mood at this moment.. blah blah... Anyway, summary: feels like the same sort of "maybe-ism" we say during yesterday, for D6-9, was put on display overnight - so... maybe for storm/winter enthusiast, it's not taking away. Things look awful. It’s looks cold (for time of year)and storm less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It would be Thursday or Friday . Not 8+ It's gonna be a big one. MJO now solidly expected to be in phase 8 too. When models start sniffing something out 7+ days then you know it'll be significant. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Been quietly admiring the down playing of that cold shot and squalls by NWS Hey now, I said we slash highs by 20+ degrees and gusts to 35+ yesterday. It does look a little squally from ALY into BOX's CWA on the tip of that TPV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Hey now, I said we slash highs by 20+ degrees and gusts to 35+ yesterday. It does look a little squally from ALY into BOX's CWA on the tip of that TPV. Yeah it’s an 18 hr shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's gonna be a big one. MJO now solidly expected to be in phase 8 too. When models start sniffing something out 7+ days then you know it'll be significant. Not seeing it . Seems extremely low likelihood of anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Been quietly admiring the down playing of that cold shot and squalls by NWS Box does have me down to 11F Monday night in the point n click with winds to 37F. They might get excited tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s an 18 hr shot. Maybe we can lose power one more time before the generator gets hooked up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's gonna be a big one. MJO now solidly expected to be in phase 8 too. When models start sniffing something out 7+ days then you know it'll be significant. Agree We should really watch this carefully. Should be the last storm of the season for many. The trolls will give this post weenies but its all good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 You guys are using the MJO way too much to determine storm outcome. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Maybe we can lose power one more time before the generator gets hooked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it’s hilarious you have snow up to your taint and you’re still angry. I am just jonesing for a 4-6" storm. Retention is great. 1" of upslope fluff every other day is fun too. But it is still nice to get a winter storm warning with a real radar depiction once in a while. That's my gripe right now. That seems really hard to come by here over the past 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You guys are using the MJO way too much to determine storm outcome. Seriously. We’ve had plenty of MJO treks into phase 8/1 produce nothing. There’s an outside chance at something D7-8 but a lot needs to go right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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