Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am all for raging through April if the pattern is conducive to significant threats, but it isn't. I am all set enduring a month of windy and 42 for the remote chance of something....I know that sounds silly because we have no control, but I just mean that I'd rather warm weather at this stage, if the likelihood of big tickets is relatively low, which it is. I'm not chasing any kind of record, so you can keep the 1-3"ers that mealt within an hour, at this point. Lol - 90% agree... If you change, "...Through April," to ..'through March...' By April I really don't want snow ever, period. Druthers and reality seldom agree though ...I'm living in the wrong part of the world from ~ March 20th onward. I've thought my utopia would be the girl of dreams at my side, and a second home ... well, 'bomb shelter outfitted to be home,' residence out in NE Oklahoma. Resettle there every spring from then through circa early June... maybe mid May pattern tenor permitting. Then, returning here for mid summer. And every autumn, we have the wherewithal and luxury to tour the world in travels to learn sites and cultural histories in subjects having nothing - thank god - to do with the weather... Returning in November, again pattern negotiable. Although, I might break and key the door in September if hurricane is nearing the PR climo key slot - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: There have been some serious boring stretches this winter. Retention had been fantastic since Grinch, however, so even with the lack of bigger storms I still have nearly 30” OTG. In NNE that's what matters. You need good pack to enjoy the skiing and snowmobiling. Of course storms help for powder days and for moral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Haven’t had a snowfall over 2” since Feb 2. Wow But you have had several below 0 readings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow But you have had several below 0 readings Which makes the dearth of snowfall worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Euro has the MJO going into 1. CMC is cold next week 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: There have been some serious boring stretches this winter. Retention had been fantastic since Grinch, however, so even with the lack of bigger storms I still have nearly 30” OTG. Time to sell as it fell short of expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Cmc with a full fledged blizzard, the phase potential is real with this time period if we can get lucky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow But you have had several below 0 readings Far fewer than usual, I think. It hasn't been that cold here. Just cold enough to keep my pack. It does snow here almost every day or other day, but to the tune of 1.5" at a clip. That kept the pack fresh all month but I am really craving a 4-8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Far fewer than usual, I think. It hasn't been that cold here. Just cold enough to keep my pack. It does snow here almost every day or other day, but to the tune of 1.5" at a clip. That kept the pack fresh all month but I am really craving a 4-8 storm. LA Nina is usually great for you but blocking really changed everything this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Cmc with a full fledged blizzard, the phase potential is real with this time period if we can get lucky With the MJO going to phase 1 like the Euro shows , this is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Cmc with a full fledged blizzard, the phase potential is real with this time period if we can get lucky Am not sure I buy it just yet ... seeing as you asked and so cherish my input - lol. no seriously, there's a modality in the PNA that is intriguing coming from the GEFs ... Kind of insidiously innocuous because the curve doesn't actually go higher into positive .. but, the many members all are on the same curve... here, There are a lot of members buried in that nearly collocated curve trajectory ...so that actually lends confidence in a significant mode adjustment across that 5 or so day of that length of time there. I surmised awhile ago that the 'behavior' may be more important than the absolute positive or negative value - and I really believe so frankly ..but whatever. Anyway, the PNA is a huge domain space. It may be that the American ( PNAP ) aspect is more Euro-like, ...but the total Pacific and American domain is pulling the curve down... It's like we have to split the PNA into quadratures...and if so, the PNAP aspect would be greater. Regardless...that above for me signals there's room for amplitude...I'm curious how the heights in the deep south layout though - it could imposed so negative interference from that aspect too - Anyway, as far as that CMC run it almost looks like bowling season antics - which could work out in its own right but if it's not rooted in the above stuff in my be coincidence. And ...it's the Canadian - haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Hey pros, is that a massive windex signal for NNE early next week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: People throwing in the towel at the end of February make me laugh. Who the hell wants warm weather now? World's biggest weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 GGEM shows you how it could happen. I think I mentioned yesterday how that trough would need to dig for oil a bit and this run does that. I agree with Tip on being skeptical of such a solution aside form just the lead time...you have to overcome some gradient in the flow. But that ridge out west does get very amplified which helps it overcome other forces and it pinches off into a rex block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 42 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Cmc with a full fledged blizzard, the phase potential is real with this time period if we can get lucky George? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Cmc is certainly possible if the MJO goes into 1. Go ahead weenie me but it's the truth and some people don't want to hear it. 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 54 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Cmc with a full fledged blizzard, the phase potential is real with this time period if we can get lucky A better shot of Wentz and the Eagles winning the SB next season........... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 39 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is certainly possible if the MJO goes into 1. Go ahead weenie me but it's the truth and some people don't want to hear it. If I'm right , I should gain a met tag. 2 2 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 I just looked at the models and out of nowhere, they now have a low! Is this pattern March 2018 good? No, the models don’t show that yet. However, the pattern does look more favorable for major east coast cyclogenesis than a typical March pattern. The pattern quickly becomes more amplified towards the March 5th- March 10th time frame, which gives the northern branch more room to dig and phase with the southern branch, allowing for east cyclogenesis to occur. The models were not showing this yesterday, but on today’s run of the Canadian it shows exactly this, the amplified flow allows for the northern branch to dig and phase with the southern branch off the Jersey coast. As the energy transfers off the jersey coast, this phasing of energy allows for the storm to not only bomb out, but it also closes off and slows down, which leads to a slow moving Miller b blizzard in eastern mass. In my opinion this is a highly plausible solution based on the pattern in place, and cannot be discounted. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is certainly possible if the MJO goes into 1. Go ahead weenie me but it's the truth and some people don't want to hear it. Yeah I don’t know why this period is being written off. It’s a legitimate threat that is supported by the pattern, and it’s not like climo is super unfavorable either. It’s early March, which can and does produce winter weather as long as the pattern in place isn’t extremely hostile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: With the MJO going to phase 1 like the Euro shows , this is possible. Snowmanihatewinter19 is sniping you with weenies lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2021 Author Share Posted February 26, 2021 Some of the guidance tries over 50kts on Monday Night/Tuesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM shows you how it could happen. I think I mentioned yesterday how that trough would need to dig for oil a bit and this run does that. I agree with Tip on being skeptical of such a solution aside form just the lead time...you have to overcome some gradient in the flow. But that ridge out west does get very amplified which helps it overcome other forces and it pinches off into a rex block. Hey, the GEM was the first to lock onto that 2/16 event phasing and going to shit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Analogs based on the PNAP. I see March 77 showing up. Probably not remembered here by many but false spring with a week of 60s and 70s followed by a couple of snowstorms mid month. Would be interesting to duplicate. That was my 2nd winter in N. Maine and snowiest ever with 186.7", though March '77 remains CAR's mildest. An early month storm dumped 11" and boosted depth to season's peak of 54". A few days later came a run of 40s and 50s which dropped pack by 20" but made it really solid. Two weeks later we were cruising spruce-fir east of Depot Lake (T13R16, a border town between Daaquam and St.-Pamphile, PQ) and our 1st day's lines ran 1.75 miles east from the lakeside road, 1/4 mi north then back, parallel to line 1. Crust looked good but the thought of having it degrade nearly 2 miles from our sleds meant carrying our snowshoes. Shortly after starting the return leg we jumped a cow moose which cantered off, leaving tracks less than 2" deep. Next day it was mid 20s with light snow (N fringe of a storm that dumped 2'+ in NW CT) and the raquettes stayed in the truck. We had snowshoe-free walking nearly 3 weeks into April, by far the longest boots-only crust I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 58 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: A better shot of Wentz and the Eagles winning the SB next season........... Would be difficult since he was traded to Indy. Gets returned as damaged goods and has a miracle season? Nice map there - another near miss for NNE? Edit: 2nd one's much nicer (even if unlikely.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2021 Author Share Posted February 26, 2021 We pray to the Lord.....Lord hear our prayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: We pray to the Lord.....Lord hear our prayer. Please make George a bird, and have him fly far....far, far away... 2 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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