Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: snizzle with your drizzle If wishes were dishes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 13 lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: Its March Winter month Not in NYC its not. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2021 Author Share Posted February 26, 2021 27 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Not in NYC its not. Time to garden in NYC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2021 Author Share Posted February 26, 2021 GFS tries for a few SHSN or squalls with the fropa next week. Otherwise, ZZZZZZ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Time to garden in NYC. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Sounds like its time to fire up the lawn thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 46 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Not in NYC its not. I guess you forgot March 2018 and other years Carry on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 People throwing in the towel at the end of February make me laugh. Who the hell wants warm weather now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2021 Author Share Posted February 26, 2021 I know it's not imminent, but still should watch the 4-6th. I know I mentioned Zzzzz earlier....but it's probably irresponsible to just gloss over those dates. It's a window for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: People throwing in the towel at the end of February make me laugh. Who the hell wants warm weather now? Getting pretty late down south....we're def not done with snow in interior New England (and prob not the coast either), but the climo temps are rapidly warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: I know it's not imminent, but still should watch the 4-6th. I know I mentioned Zzzzz earlier....but it's probably irresponsible to just glass over those dates. It's a window for something. EPS shows some mild potential there....it would be a late bloomer probably but if you get something deepening quick enough on that trough diving in, then you could get a surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I guess you forgot March 2018 and other years Carry on A month here and there does not a climate make. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 14 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: How ... and of what constitutes the determination for these CPC analogs ... Is it GEFS ... operational trend, the blend therein ... Any cross guidance? Is it all just 500 mb heights? what goes into the product. what metrics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: How ... and of what constitutes the determination for these CPC analogs ... Is it GEFS ... operational trend, the blend therein ... Any cross guidance? Is it all just 500 mb heights? what goes into the product. what metrics... That's from the GEFS I'd assume. They have two analog options there....one from the GEFS and another from the GEPS (GGEM ensembles).....too bad they don't have one from the EPS which would be more useful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I guess you forgot March 2018 and other years Carry on There is nothing even remotely resembling March 2018 this year. That pattern is not happening. That was the result of a late SSW....it happened earlier this season, and we have already seen the impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 16 weenies, a "huh" and two laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 9 hours ago, ice1972 said: Whole Foods makes a great sourdough....picked up a loaf Tuesday actually....tasty Lol..was just busting your chops a bit. I’ll have to give it a try :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2021 Author Share Posted February 26, 2021 After the 6th, EPS looks pretty mild for sure. Lots of creeps in front of Fox Hall in Lowell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 But what is the metric - all I see is a day, and colors... Okay ...so ( excuse I don't typically look at, nor have I been exposed to that product suite ) that's "ON D+11" - must be a snap shot of what it looks like on that day compared to historically? I don't see what/why "D+11" should bear any particular significance over any other day out in that range ... why day eleven? Must just be 'that's always been that way,' operational lineage thing. Not only that, ... looking at the individual GEF members, I fail to really successfully even imagine how the hell that day 11 from 12z yesterday, or last night's 00z ... could blend out to a that kind of .. what the f are those units in y-cor ?? 90 what? % above average? egh, not in the mood to root around in their labyrinth of online disclaimers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: GFS tries for a few SHSN or squalls with the fropa next week. Otherwise, ZZZZZZ. Haven’t had a snowfall over 2” since Feb 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: But what is the metric - all I see is a day, and colors... Okay ...so ( excuse I don't typically look at, nor have I been exposed to that product suite ) that's "ON D+11" - must be a snap shot of what it looks like on that day compared to historically? I don't see what/why "D+11" should bear any particular significance over any other day out in that range ... why day eleven? Must just be 'that's always been that way,' operational lineage thing. Not only that, ... looking at the individual GEF members, I fail to really successfully even imagine how the hell that day 11 from 12z yesterday, or last night's 00z ... could blend out to a that kind of .. what the f are those units in y-cor ?? 90 what? % above average? egh, not in the mood to root around in their labyrinth of online disclaimers Yes, it basically takes the GEFS mean for that frame and tries to match it to the closest H5 pattern historically. They have two different days we can choose for the analog composite...D8 and D11. (the other days on the left hand menu do not produce analog composites) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: People throwing in the towel at the end of February make me laugh. Who the hell wants warm weather now? Most rational people want warm weather by March especially after a winter with a pandemic. I got all I could ask for out of this winter personally. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2021 Author Share Posted February 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Haven’t had a snowfall over 2” since Feb 2. That's crazy. I mean you can get 2" in early May lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 16 weenies, a "huh" and two laughs. He won the car too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Haven’t had a snowfall over 2” since Feb 2. I've had one 3" storm since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Most rational people want warm weather by March especially after a winter with a pandemic. I got all I could ask for out of this winter personally. I am all for raging through April if the pattern is conducive to significant threats, but it isn't. I am all set enduring a month of windy and 42 for the remote chance of something....I know that sounds silly because we have no control, but I just mean that I'd rather warm weather at this stage, if the likelihood of big tickets is relatively low, which it is. I'm not chasing any kind of record, so you can keep the 1-3"ers that mealt within an hour, at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's crazy. I mean you can get 2" in early May lol. There have been some serious boring stretches this winter. Retention had been fantastic since Grinch, however, so even with the lack of bigger storms I still have nearly 30” OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes, it basically takes the GEFS mean for that frame and tries to match it to the closest H5 pattern historically. They have two different days we can choose for the analog composite...D8 and D11. (the other days on the left hand menu do not produce analog composites) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php Analogs based on the PNAP. I see March 77 showing up. Probably not remembered here by many but false spring with a week of 60s and 70s followed by a couple of snowstorms mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 In any case ... It seems like no matter what salient point one makes regarding the weather patterns over the next three weeks, the emergence vector is always pointed up one's butt - f! It's frustring.. like there really some kind of "Matrix" to the cosmos ...and it exists for that singular purpose. Risking the no-win setup that suggests .. ha, the operational Euro seems like it is a vastly over-amplified version of GEFs PNA index, if one were hoping for cross-guidance confidence. The EPS blend at the free sites I've look over, it is hard to glean support for the operational version as the last several cycles have more and less supported - no clear trend. Maybe a little more amped? But the operational Euro looks like it's gotta be soaring to some +3 PNA. Hm, the Euro also tends to over amp flows in both directions beyond D5 ..it could all just be bs for that reason alone. Still, I would nod to the GEFs for having concerted ( agreeing...) members; en masse they rise and fall almost along the same PNA values. They are all tightly clustered around the 5 day bulge - I think that behavior is more important than the absolute value of PNA apex, ... I'm willing to hunch. One might focus too much on 'positive' or 'negative,' but it goes from -2 SD to 0, which is still an upward correction of 2 total SD mass. It matters in determining a higher impact threat, vs just a nuisance ordeal next week ... There's may be a kind of limit in how much that can amplify though - even with trending western heights. The entire region from S of Hawaii to S of Bermuda is higher than normal heights. It's a part of that same insidiously creeping ... over decades really, aspect I've been railing about and (hopefully) successfully rollin' eyes or readers, because clearly my ultimate goal is to irritate people... yeah yeah HC again but ..heh, unfortunately, reality whether readers are either smart enough, moral enough, or lucid enough to accept, is going to impose limits to the southern aspect of these troughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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