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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies are interesting during week 3 and 4. Almost a Hudson Bay and far NE Quebec blocking. That's sort of nice to have for bowling ball season. Obviously climo starts to get hostile, but it's not an insurmountable task.

Yeah we're rarely done by 3/15. Really the last year we were was probably 2014 (the Cape wasn't, lol)....I guess 2017 for closer to the coast was done after the 3/14 storm, but 3/31-4/1 got the interior.

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1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

I wonder the same thing, I know Will mentions it a lot but not sure how to find it on the models.

It’s not something that you immediately pick out per se. In the winter, you have pretty stout features like ridges and troughs that are pretty far apart. For instance we always talk about a ridge out west, because that typically means a nice trough in the east which is what you want for cold and snow.  

In the Spring you start to lose the good thermal gradients and the flow can get very “wavy,” so for example it’s totally normal to have a trough out west, ridge near the eastern Rockies or Plains, and then another trough in the east. In this example having a trough-ridge-trough means you must have shorter wavelengths. This type of flow also allows for cutoffs, or s/w’s that get cutoff from the jet and can lead to big storms. Think 4/1/97. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not something that you immediately pick out per se. In the winter, you have pretty stout features like ridges and troughs that are pretty far apart. For instance we always talk about a ridge out west, because that typically means a nice trough in the east which is what you want for cold and snow.  

In the Spring you start to lose the good thermal gradients and the flow can get very “wavy,” so for example it’s totally normal to have a trough out west, ridge near the eastern Rockies or Plains, and then another trough in the east. In this example having a trough-ridge-trough means you must have shorter wavelengths. This type of flow also allows for cutoffs, or s/w’s that get cutoff from the jet and can lead to big storms. Think 4/1/97. 

Thanks for that explanation. Great example and super easy to picture. 

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