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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Massachusetts is probably the most weird place in the NE. Just ultra left libs making crazy decisions right and left. So weird. Problem is too many people jammed into Emass. 

Well with more people comes more restrictions needed. It makes sense. That will happen more and more.

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Just now, dendrite said:

heh...8”

I’m wondering if that guy slants. Or finds the weeniest pile. I just find his obs and what Phin reports doesn’t seem to jive. They’re pretty close to each other. And I get the micro climate stuff.....just seems a bit strange to me. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m wondering if that guy slants. Or finds the weeniest pile. I just find his obs and what Phin reports doesn’t seem to jive. They’re pretty close to each other. And I get the micro climate stuff.....just seems a bit strange to me. 

I go up to his place all the time. My take is that his numbers are a little inflated. For example, he was saying a couple days ago he still had nearly full coverage in the fields and woods. That was bullshit when I went up there. I found many bare areas, anywhere facing south. One thing to remember is my property is probably the most open and south-facing plot there is in all of Randolph Hill. The CoCoRaHS guy is in thick forest and his plot is flat instead of sloped towards the south. He has a huge barn in the middle of his wooded area with a field behind it, and that is apparently where he does his measurements. I could see that holding on to snow for a long time. There is still some snow there now. So the conclusion is he isn’t slant-sticking per se, but he is measuring in a nano-climate spot basically. 

Also, my south facing cam is not going to be a great judge of depth compared to even the other side of my house. It gets baked with solar every day. 

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Through all of Jan, feb and most of mar, my snow depth obs were right on accurate with my neighbor. It wasn’t until this warm and rain spell started that the gap opened up and my snow melted out pretty quickly and he was still reporting a foot plus with “full coverage.” I definitely went up there a few times and was scratching my head about it. I guess you can observe melt patterns over the years and just stick your depth stake in that spot to take your measurements for CoCoRaHS. Makes me question many of the late season depth reports, especially at the ski places. 

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21 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I go up to his place all the time. My take is that his numbers are a little inflated. For example, he was saying a couple days ago he still had nearly full coverage in the fields and woods. That was bullshit when I went up there. I found many bare areas, anywhere facing south. One thing to remember is my property is probably the most open and south-facing plot there is in all of Randolph Hill. The CoCoRaHS guy is in thick forest and his plot is flat instead of sloped towards the south. He has a huge barn in the middle of his wooded area with a field behind it, and that is apparently where he does his measurements. I could see that holding on to snow for a long time. There is still some snow there now. So the conclusion is he isn’t slant-sticking per se, but he is measuring in a nano-climate spot basically. 

Also, my south facing cam is not going to be a great judge of depth compared to even the other side of my house. It gets baked with solar every day. 

So based on what you said, if he’s doing it in a shaded spot, that’s not a true account of the area. You are supposed to take into account the general area, not a shady spot behind a structure.  

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

So based on what you said, if he’s doing it in a shaded spot, that’s not a true account of the area. You are supposed to take into account the general area, not a shady spot behind a structure.  

Melt patterns are so tough this time of year when you have consistent snow cover on one aspect (like E-NE) almost 1500 vertical feet lower than say S-SW.  But then there’s a micro-scale stuff... there’s one house near me on Mountain Road near the old Gables Inn that literally just doesn’t melt.  Large pines and a hill side block any afternoon sun, but it covers like his whole property.  That guy could probably claim an 8” depth right now at 750ft while he looks out at literally no snow in all directions at that elevation.

But yeah it’s a little weenie-ish.  Though with time the records have usefulness as a comparison to that specific site and not the general area.

 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So based on what you said, if he’s doing it in a shaded spot, that’s not a true account of the area. You are supposed to take into account the general area, not a shady spot behind a structure.  

Well, that whole area is more shaded than my plot so he isn’t being totally deceptive, I suppose. If I measured for CoCoRaHS in my front yard above the septic drain field it wouldn’t be representative either. LOL

I do think he found the weeniest spot and measures there, but his topography is much better for retention here in late season than my spot. Like I said, I tracked closely with him all winter until a couple weeks ago.

 

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25 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Through all of Jan, feb and most of mar, my snow depth obs were right on accurate with my neighbor. It wasn’t until this warm and rain spell started that the gap opened up and my snow melted out pretty quickly and he was still reporting a foot plus with “full coverage.” I definitely went up there a few times and was scratching my head about it. I guess you can observe melt patterns over the years and just stick your depth stake in that spot to take your measurements for CoCoRaHS. Makes me question many of the late season depth reports, especially at the ski places. 

Ski area base depths are generally a made up number, pay no attention to those. We even know it’s a made up number but people want to see “average base depths.”  WTF does that even mean?  Could be 0” in a bare spot or 120” when man-made snow is piled up.  0-120” then.  We sort of mocked those this year on the snow phone by saying like 9 to 99” sometimes. We’d find the deepest pocket of manmade on the grooming data (the snowcats map snow depth on the trails like a fishing boat measures water depth) and use that as the upper end and give a ridiculous range.

In the end the grooming data will give an average snow depth for a given trail by averaging depths of all the passes... but snow depths vary so much.  All winter long at any ski area there’s a wind swept area with bare ground and then another area with 15 feet under a snow gun.

Thats why the Mansfield COOP stake is the barometer here.  It has its own issues BUT it’s consistent and has a 65 year period of record to compare to.  

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This all being said, I was very happy with the retention this year. It was actually amazing to me. It was also amazing how a light switch was flipped in mid-March and the snow started to melt on cue.

A grade for retention in my spot, especially given the lack of meaningful snowfall for Feb and March and the fact that Grinch wiped out 10-15” on Christmas. If that hadn’t happened I would have had great depth all winter. 

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ski area base depths are generally a made up number, pay no attention to those. We even know it’s a made up number but people want to see “average base depths.”  WTF does that even mean?  Could be 0” in a bare spot or 120” when man-made snow is piled up.  0-120” then.  We sort of mocked those this year on the snow phone by saying like 9 to 99” sometimes. We’d find the deepest pocket of manmade on the grooming data (the snowcats map snow depth on the trails like a fishing boat measures water depth) and use that as the upper end and give a ridiculous range.

In the end the grooming data will give an average snow depth for a given trail by averaging depths of all the passes... but snow depths vary so much.  All winter long at any ski area there’s a wind swept area with bare ground and then another area with 15 feet under a snow gun.

Thats why the Mansfield COOP stake is the barometer here.  It has its own issues BUT it’s consistent and has a 65 year period of record to compare to.  

Just do what Cannon should do and tell people to pack both a life preserver and ice-tuned racing skis. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

This all being said, I was very happy with the retention this year. It was actually amazing to me. It was also amazing how a light switch was flipped in mid-March and the snow started to melt on cue.

A grade for retention in my spot, especially given the lack of meaningful snowfall for Feb and March and the fact that Grinch wiped out 10-15” on Christmas. If that hadn’t happened I would have had great depth all winter. 

Yeah, you're impressed and it was realistically a meh winter up there. You'll love it when we get some real cold and frequent storms. Your area should be able to produce some wire-to-wire Nov-Apr packs. Not much worked out this year except for that one good storm you had and the Dec biggie down here. You win some; you lose some.

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Massachusetts is probably the most weird place in the NE. Just ultra left libs making crazy decisions right and left. So weird. Problem is too many people jammed into Emass. 

It’s funny I started working in Westwood and people in Emass thought western Mass started at 495! People would drive an hour + from Braintree or Quincy and here I am jetting into work in 55 minutes from Southern ORH county

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2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

It’s funny I started working in Westwood and people in Emass thought western Mass started at 495! People would drive an hour + from Braintree or Quincy and here I am jetting into work in 55 minutes from Southern ORH county

When we moved from Cambridge to Greenfield almost nobody I talked to in E MA knew where Franklin Co. was. Lol. 

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12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

One of my favorite spring storms

 

In the running for my favorite snowstorm ever.  Our place in Fort Kent didn't get CAR's 26" but 17 with winds gusting near 60 sufficed to bury our black Chevette save for a single patch not much bigger than my palm.  Oddly, the snow stake lost an inch, thanks to capricious drifting - 15' either side there was 5-6 feet.  Most of the snow fell with temps low-mid teens, mid-January wx. 
Also the best positive bust I'll ever see - late on 4/6 CAR added "flurries" to their cold and windy forecast.  3-4 hours later we had S+ and those "flurries" established a new mark for biggest snowfall at the WSO.  (Since broken in 12/03 and 12/05.)   It's the coldest major April snowstorm on record for most NE sites, and the day after in NYC had a high of 30, tied with a day in the 1880s for coldest April max.  For New England anomalous events, I'd put it just a small step behind 3/1888, 1938 and the Octobomb.

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Winter starts in April if GEFs gets its way...

Five nights of banging negative NAO with a huge rise in the PNA… It’s going to prove to y’all not to discount Tele connectors so early in the season for one but secondly ...indicates a seriously f*ed up spring until mid May “IF” that happens...

Originally I had surmise the possibility that as the flow relaxed, the Lanina would maybe take over and we ‘d end up with a warmer spring consistent with that longer-term ENSO footprint ...

that doesn’t seem to be emerging -

Instead we are manufacturing the same shit that happened for the last five years… Which is to say the flow relaxes—> blocky notes pop —> seasonal rollback screwed

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Wachusett is using the grooming data.  It seems reasonable for the middle of the trails.  But you can definitely tell where spots are lower near the edges and near poles etc.     still a neat use of technology 

They are pretty darn accurate.  Can give a very good picture of snow depths on trails... can even see where the snow guns deposited the snow.  Yellow is very deep (5-10 feet), red is like a foot before grass.  Shows you where the stockpiles are.

Untitled.jpg.78679658abac9820e15993e90f1ca700.jpg

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

They are pretty darn accurate.  Can give a very good picture of snow depths on trails... can even see where the snow guns deposited the snow.  Yellow is very deep (5-10 feet), red is like a foot before grass.  Shows you where the stockpiles are.

Untitled.jpg.78679658abac9820e15993e90f1ca700.jpg

The pretty colors.......

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42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Winter starts in April if GEFs gets its way...

Five nights of banging negative NAO with a huge rise in the PNA… It’s going to prove to y’all not to discount Tele connectors so early in the season for one but secondly ...indicates a seriously f*ed up spring until mid May “IF” that happens...

Originally I had surmise the possibility that as the flow relaxed, the Lanina would maybe take over and we ‘d end up with a warmer spring consistent with that longer-term ENSO footprint ...

that doesn’t seem to be emerging -

Instead we are manufacturing the same shit that happened for the last five years… Which is to say the flow relaxes—> blocky notes pop —> seasonal rollback screwed

may i raise the notion of fake spring being an official season? because we sure have been dealing with that a lot lately  

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Winter starts in April if GEFs gets its way...

Five nights of banging negative NAO with a huge rise in the PNA… It’s going to prove to y’all not to discount Tele connectors so early in the season for one but secondly ...indicates a seriously f*ed up spring until mid May “IF” that happens...

Originally I had surmise the possibility that as the flow relaxed, the Lanina would maybe take over and we ‘d end up with a warmer spring consistent with that longer-term ENSO footprint ...

that doesn’t seem to be emerging -

Instead we are manufacturing the same shit that happened for the last five years… Which is to say the flow relaxes—> blocky notes pop —> seasonal rollback screwed


Seems there’s always some hell to pay.

If we’re going to -NAO in early spring, make it big. That typically means the consistent dank/misery mist is sent to the mid Atlantic and we are about average with surface HP overhead. “Best in Maine“ has been a recurring theme in past few April’s...

That’s my bet at the moment. Better weather north.

 

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