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March 2021 Weather Discussion

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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George001
George001

The reason why people who live in eastern mass shouldn’t give up on the storm threat next week is that despite the fact that the pattern favors a large offshore ocean storm, we are pretty much stickin

George001
George001

I disagree, at least for east coast storms the Canadian is one of the best OP models, up there with the Euro and Navy. The Gfs and Icon are the garbage models not worth looking at. 

George001
George001

I have a ranking for the models that I’m somewhat familiar with   tier 1- Euro tier 2- Canadian, navy, href  tier 3- ukmet, nam, srefs, rgem tier 4- icon, kma, Jma, Brazilian

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

I suspect a 00z Euro-like layout is the likeliest general impact re that latter Sunday.  I might even edge the verified faster to leave if anything; it would fit seasonal trend ( which is really more like a dedadal trend ...) to do so - systems lose curvature of structure, modulating .. pulled/stretched in the models, due to speeding up in time.

I think that last predicate phrase is the main cause for why so many 'bigger events' in the extended times seldom get into shorter range without significantly minoring out, fwiw -

But I am noticing the westerlies are getting faster for next week .. right on schedule again.  This has probably been a 'canvas correction' that's been going on in all guidance all along...where the ambient velocities ( we call that geostrophic wind ..) are consummately correcting faster from D10s to D4s ...and that, right there, could simplify the search for why these bombs end up smeared whimpers so often.

Yep... round and 'round we go ...end up right back into HC expansion causing hemispheric compression against boreal winter heights...

I'm digressing but it is indirectly related, and why I am not ready to sans the notion of a big -NAO at some point in April. It's 'thermal rebound' - basically... the flow finally does relax as these heights N of 50th finally fill...and when that happens, there's a window were latent heat dumps into those regions and we get that blocks in springs. 

Trouble is, .. that is at statistical odds with the La Nina footprint ( that supposedly...) in the general planetary system right now.  This latter signal is a flatter 'ridgier' warmer April ... diametrical to a -NAO.  Lol.  blah blah   but HC shit is fighting the La Nina spring in that sense ... hm

 

 

 

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tamarack

tamarack

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely a lot of variability lately. 

March is easily the most variable for snowfall of our 4 "snow months" here, with CV nearly twice that of January.

Switching to biting bugs - my black fly season is mid-late May and last year saw the least I can recall since moving here.  At Randolph I'd guess late May would be he black fly peak, early June in a cold spring.  In Fort Kent the first 2 weeks of June were generally the worst, and far worse than here but quite variable.  1984 was terrible there; even in moderate wind enough critters would stick as they blew past to cause significant damage.  June 10-14, 1996 on our men's retreat at Deboullie was in a class by itself - even 500' from shore on Deboullie Pond I was getting hammered.  Maybe insufficient air space over land for the hordes.  At 90° they were active all day; usually they go hide in the shade if it's much past 80 - big heat is for deerflies.  

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tamarack

tamarack

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I get the chastising and finger pointing of the playground antics thing but ...  

C'mon Will - remove 2015's deep anomaly and that Trend "surges" all the way to a fiery +0.001  

LOL

In his "sort of like" defense ( I guess...), I will say ..I've personally noted some distinctly warm anomaly 'periods' that are sub monthly in scale, spanning the  last 7 or 8 years.  Thus anecdotal, these did actually take place in either February, March or Aprils. They were particularly obscene, and nothing like I had ever experienced or ever thought possible at this latitude at during late winter into early spring. 

Those longer term statistical graphs ... hide those, thus negate their significance.  However indicative they are or not, at least for this 8 or so years... hell call it 12 and include those crazy warm weeks in April of 2009, too ... A conclusion could be fairly made that isolated warm intraseasonal events are increasing in frequency ?  

I mean, that is empirically shown - ..so those stats should count for something too.. Open-minded:  Maybe this is how it begins ?  We start increasing frequency of 2 ... 3, 5 -day long +20 events enough, and we're 'playing with fire' - haha.  But we may start smearing some together and ... smear enough, there goes March..  -who knows when that would ultimately be, just sayn'

In fact, not only do those warm events host record breaking temperatures, I feel confident that if ever a metric could be derived, call it the "integrated kinetic index" ( kind of like ISE for TC... only "IKE" for warm events etc..), those events that each lasted multiple days? They probably best most warm anomalies that have happened in history, too - even if by decimals...  I'm sure there are/would be those that are comparable... ( say in the 90th %tile ...), sprinkled over the hundreds of years of climo, of course, but increasing frequency - that's the argumentative tell.

But 2009, 2013, 2017, 2018 ... last year... now...  I remember one year on Easter Sunday, at my sister's place up there in Winchendon, it was 87 F ...Anyway, I think the point is valid -

Having said that, it doesn't mean the March is no longer a winter month - not yet anyway.  No more than it would mean February is non-winter months in that list.  Funny thing is, those years that did that... had cold shots and CAA with virga exploded CU and packing pellet showers ...if not a synoptic threat or two, just the same. 

interesting... more of an "unstable" climate than one that qualifies no longer cold and snowy March's  - that much seems clad

2015 was Feb's year.  March was also cold then but it was 2014 when the Farmington co-op recorded its coldest March since data began in 1893.  Their 2nd coldest was in 1984, the year before Will's chart begins.  Upthread I noted the variability of March snow, but temps are also wild.  March 2012 had 90° between highest and lowest at my place, 80/-10, the greatest calendar month range I've recorded anywhere.  At that co-op March temps have a 108° span, 83 to -25.  Next highest are Jan/Dec, each at 101, and Feb's is 98.  At the lower end, the met summer months are all 72 or 73. 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

2015 was Feb's year.  March was also cold then but it was 2014 when the Farmington co-op recorded its coldest March since data began in 1893.  Their 2nd coldest was in 1984, the year before Will's chart begins.  Upthread I noted the variability of March snow, but temps are also wild.  March 2012 had 90° between highest and lowest at my place, 80/-10, the greatest calendar month range I've recorded anywhere.  At that co-op March temps have a 108° span, 83 to -25.  Next highest are Jan/Dec, each at 101, and Feb's is 98.  At the lower end, the met summer months are all 72 or 73. 

 

Yeah... I mean really - it's less  ( at this stage of the game of "climate monitoring" if people feel less confident or comfortable labeling it as 'change' ) about losing March as a winter-defined month, and more about just instability in wild swings

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It matters none in Napril. It could be hugely negative and we could be 60 and sunny 

Lol,   it matters none in "Napril" ...because that means it was a warm so it didn't -

but in general?  It matter in April's wholeheartedly. 

I have notice folks peddling out the index correlation seasonality stuff lately...and as usual, they don't get it or it comes off as though it's absolute - like a light switch.  "Up, -NAO and + PNA doens't mean anything now, phew -"

WRONG

Look, there's a 'gestation' ... it takes time for that to become the case, every year. It's not an April 1 or May 1 or June 1 requirement.  hahha.  It starts slowly...and over weeks and weeks and weeks, you end up at a state where the PNA and NAOs and the whereever she blows mean less.  

In April?  Holy hell - particularly the front side of that month, we are in the still heavy end of still gonna matter!

In fact, I'd strongly suggest not ignoring this,     

image.png.8460c67dbfbd500fbc55c5df49ae54ad.png

    .... at least for the time being.  And if it ends up mattering less, it won't be because the PNA didn't correlate - it would be because the pattern didn't verify. Two different things.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, looks very similar. Potent look on the gfs.

Im supposed to be staining my deck next weekend, not good.

I gotta do that too ...shit.

kicking myself for not doing it last Sunday in that 67 high sun dry air.   Woulda been fast -

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I gotta do that too ...shit.

kicking myself for not doing it last Sunday in that 67 high sun dry air.   Woulda been fast -

Yeah the best time of the year to stain is on those uber-low dewpoint days you get in spring before leaf-out. The stuff dries in like an hour when it's 66/28, lol.

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tamarack

tamarack

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1 hour ago, klw said:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most of VT through 4 pm.

Had one go thru here 12:10-12:25, only a few minutes RA+ but immediately before that had a strike within 100' of the house.  I was looking out the front window when everything lit up with KA-BOOM-BOOM (2 near-instantaneous crashes, maybe including an echo off the house.)  Looked out the side and saw a sizable puff of smoke (or condensation - was not out there to sniff which) about 20 yards away.  No visible sign of what it struck but there's a 90' white pine 10 yards farther from the house and directly behind that puff of whatever.  I can still feel the adrenalin and our dog is panting like she's just run half a mile.  Temp was 47 before the TS nd 46 after, and have had solid clouds all day though the earlier fog was gone before the storm.

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