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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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Brightening even here under the butt-bang band of clouds of the I-495's dying deform ...  temp from 52 to 60 in an hour...

It's really warm aloft - folks that get sun going'll probably see some soaring...

Brian I think mentioned 18z for eastern zones...

 

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Thing I'm always wondering about those instability profiles like that -

Aren't those SFC based lifted parcels based upon modeled temperature profiles ??

Those could be wrong if the model's f'ed up -

Like the NAM will have MOS of 67 when 77 .... and throw up 850 elevated convention because it's SBCAPE is a piece of shit... Yet it seems these references to instabilities in tweets and whatever ...it's not clear they are leaving plenty of wiggle room for model temperature bullshit

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the models aren’t showing it right now, but early April needs to be watched for a possible early spring noreaster. The 500 millibar pattern on the european guidance is a bit too progressive right now for a storm, but it has been trending less progressive with more digging of the trough. Looks like NNE after getting skunked most of winter is going to get hammered in early spring, with a foot and possibly more for Phineas Dryslot and Dendy for the 28th storm, then another threat for April 2nd. It also looks like the european guidance is gearing up for yet another early spring snow threat towards the 7-10th timeframe. Climo is extremely unfavorable at this point however there is blocking and a displaced polar vortex in central Canada with ridging out west. Especially for interior CNE/NNE these threats need to be watched, SNE is a long shot due to climo at this point but even here I’m keeping an eye out. The setup looks similar to the 28th so I am leaning more CNE/NNE right now, as it would have to dig a lot more for SNE to be in the game.

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stubborn low cloud...  the orb of the sun is plainly getting through... enough that it's 66 and way above normal but somehow still an injustice - hahahaha.

I guess not advertising 77 with mid summer appeal would help that set up, huh -

But in any case, it is clear like 3 miles west of here out to NYS ... open sky, and the clouds are move WSW to ENE so this is entirely lower level terrain fall away caused at this point... They'll probably make 74 to 76 west of the ORH hills, and then that air mass floods east as late high with a later mix out I'm guessin...

The old 6 pm Logan t-spike ?

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Quite a bit cooler in Hampton today then I was expecting. Still plenty nice enough to fire up the grill later though for the third day in a row! Also wishing for a good outcome for our friends in the south. Birmingham metro is under the gun in a bad way. ~65dbz debris ball on this sucker as well :(

6511D21A-90ED-4D74-9522-8DDD36C6B574.png

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Glad we live here not there 

oh yeah...it's an eastern zones issue ...

warm fronts creep to the rim of the worcester elevation line and then stops there... You need a p-wave of a f'n comet impact to scour this shit

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