Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 not helping that there's a llv cyclonic 'echo' S of ISP... almost looks on satellite like it's producing a low ( 700 mb ) level deform band of light shits over eastern sections. It's whirling away at the speed of 'utterly disconnected from the steering field' so who knows how long that thing claims the day too - yuck. it sucks out there now... I just hope we've at least managed some appreciative rain... But if today busts... it looks like Saturday is trending milder with less backside cold ... 850s stay 0 -ish, with WNW d-slope and 540 thickness > 540 so... it may still make 64... Cold fails in sneaky ways at this time of year when it does, and spring sometimes has a way of proving by force that July is still coming - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Thunder tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Thunder tomorrow? I was mentioning that yesterday. Might be some morning rumbles..maybe srfc stuff in the aftn esp north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Thunder tomorrow? Oh yeah. Some of the synoptic basics are in the region - ... not talking Enid OK soundings or anything..but, regional LI's are -3 ..and with low level moisture left elevated by this bs out there now being cooked by sun inside a warm sector... oh, look - here comes a late day front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Uggh i miss winter Probably will get some flood watches here for the second storm on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Tim Kelley NBC10 Boston @TimNBCBoston · 1h you are in the 'eye' @BrandonBlbn2015 ! kidding of course.. confounding low pressure south of Cape Cod may be a monkey wrench in our sunny warm Thursday eastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 ...and I wonder how 'confounding' it really is ... or 'was,' too. It's almost like collectively et al we just sort of assumed its vague presence in the guidance ...to mean 'noise' and less influencing perhaps. Yet it's been there lurking in the guidance all along. I think if it busts the day, like it probably will, it won't really be as much of a blind sided thing as it will an error in not taking it seriously: That said, it's also not really fair - what is in life... - because the guidance over the last 48 hours really showed that as being less influential ... here we are with gumming up matters clear to MHT NH such that it is... It's a whirl that is decoupled from the mid levels, where the models do better in open air - in other words, it's 'cyclonic volume' is essentially all contained where the models don't do so well. The NAM sort of hinted at 00z ...with Logan in an slight inversion T1 to T2, and 92% RH1 values through 16z... I saw that and went uh oh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Another thing I noticed and pisses me off because this happens a lot and I never know when to trust the observation at hand... yesterday, ...while we finagled that decent day east of the CT River Valley, there was a this nearly stalled N-S oriented wall of light shits from the Capital District of eastern NYS to PHL... inching E at that blazing speed of excruciating. I saw that ...and thought, 'that looks like it'll be here tomorrow - is that gonna do that here?' ... Seems now, that's precisely what happened ...and, it is still blazing along at the speed of excruciating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 52 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Probably will get some flood watches here for the second storm on Sunday. GY already has your area in a watch. Doesn't extend into Maine yet though the morning AFD mentioned the Swift River in Roxbury, which can reach flood stage if 2 moose pee into it at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, tamarack said: GY already has your area in a watch. Doesn't extend into Maine yet though the morning AFD mentioned the Swift River in Roxbury, which can reach flood stage if 2 moose pee into it at the same time. Not here yet, unless I missed it. There is a watch over in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: shorts a definite today once the murk clears out. won't be suprised to see a sharp green-up today. .16 here crocus all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 May have to sell the temps in ern areas? Stubborn low level RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Where's My sun? Locked in with drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 That little mesolow off the southcoast kinda has to kick east before the westerly flow starts mixing down. So it’s probably a slow progression from SW CT up to my way. Models don’t mix the crap out up here until after 18z and we know how that can lag so my hunch is I’m screwed. I’ll probably get some breaks after 5pm when the sun is behind the western pines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 24 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Not here yet, unless I missed it. There is a watch over in VT. Correct - my mistake. Clouds remain thick here though the fog is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Signal to destroy April is getting harder to ignore - ... It was always a wonder to me whether or not the La Nina longer terms climate signal for 'warm tendencies in spring' in the OV/MA/NE regions would kick in. I have been using that in my seasonal assessment efforts ( ...which is really just voiceless whisper in the din of social media blather such that this outlet offers...). I had surmised ...if not 'engineered' a way in which it could. The problem is the HC... The expansion shit is real - again...this is not me and my hypothesis. This empirically measured and discussed out there in the greater ambit - I've provided primer material ... but since no one in here ever seems to discuss it, I can only assume that means no one takes it seriously? I am saying that because hopefully it will help people to believe it - it's not me. https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/ Key Finding 1 The tropics have expanded poleward by about 70 to 200 miles in each hemisphere over the period 1979–2009, with an accompanying shift of the subtropical dry zones, midlatitude jets, and storm tracks (medium to high confidence). Human activities have played a role in this change (medium confidence), although confidence is presently low regarding the magnitude of the human contribution relative to natural variability. Key Finding 2 Recurring patterns of variability in large-scale atmospheric circulation (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and Northern Annular Mode) and the atmosphere–ocean system (such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation) cause year-to-year variations in U.S. temperatures and precipitation (high confidence). Changes in the occurrence of these patterns or their properties have contributed to recent U.S. temperature and precipitation trends (medium confidence), although confidence is low regarding the size of the role of human activities in these changes. So, even a small expansion in the tropics has to physically integrate into more overall gradient...and, that expansion has been happening since (1979 thru 2009) + 11 years ... a time in which the "hockey stick," CC acceleration is going on, . ... that doesn't end well. The expansion is probably gone on further, and ... gee what the f's been happening in the last 10 years. Velocity saturation Index correlation failures, ocean and air Seasonal and intra-seasonal excessive Standard Deviation anomalies like 70s and 80s in February at 40 N around the hemisphere ... like, 3 or 4 times in 10 years... Commercial airliners backing us into a wonderful experimental sampling with their consummate record breaking short flight times over oceanic basins, with some nearing sonic speeds... ...litany of examples that ... seems like threshold is either being crossed, or... it's pulled pretty taut. So ... that 'index correlation failure' bold there... that's been iffy for this spring and assessing whether the La Nina stat would dominate. But that April with the blockbuster -NAO out of now where and suddenly explosion of +PNA into the first week of the month - that's not winter coming back, first of all... What that is, is relaxation slosh back at hemispheric scales. It's the HC velocities abandoning the flow, and suddenly, for a window that may last a couple of weeks ( ~) you get these residual blocking nodes to pop off. It's done this ever spring in the past 5 years and it seems that the models/ ens means are trying to send the continent through the seasonal gating again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: That little mesolow off the southcoast kinda has to kick east before the westerly flow starts mixing down. So it’s probably a slow progression from SW CT up to my way. Models don’t mix the crap out up here until after 18z and we know how that can lag so my hunch is I’m screwed. I’ll probably get some breaks after 5pm when the sun is behind the western pines. yeah... 'been bitchin' about it all morning myself.. heh kind of bust - sort of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 52.9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I was mentioning that yesterday. Might be some morning rumbles..maybe srfc stuff in the aftn esp north? 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh yeah. Some of the synoptic basics are in the region - ... not talking Enid OK soundings or anything..but, regional LI's are -3 ..and with low level moisture left elevated by this bs out there now being cooked by sun inside a warm sector... oh, look - here comes a late day front. SNE in the morning. NNE in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 This is when Southwest is Best. If that sun can pop out it’s off to the races here. Getting closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: SNE in the morning. NNE in the evening. Spinners in VT tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Spinners in VT tomorrow. People torn off the chairlifts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: People torn off the chairlifts. Anything left standing gets knocked down by CAA after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: People torn off the chairlifts. I was at Cannon once in March (early 2000's) and they closed the Mountain due to severe. I was riding the lift with my BIL and we were getting a little anxious watching the lightning fire off in the distance. Not a good feeling lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I was at Cannon once in March (early 2000's) and they closed the Mountain due to severe. I was riding the lift with my BIL and we were getting a little anxious watching the lightning fire off in the distance. Not a good feeling lol. Stowe Snowboard at 3K violently and uncontrollably flying around and decapitating people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Love a cool spring Sucks it will not last 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 62 with clouds still, but brightening up..c’mon baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Love a cool spring Sucks it will not last Hope it torches. Who wants 40s and 50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 58 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Spinners in VT tomorrow. mentioned last week, this would have been a banger had we fast forwarded this to May. Hope this continues for a few months because 2nd year Ninas are usually decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now