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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a torch! 2nd all time 

 

1998 didn't have 6 straight days in the 60s but had 5 straight in the 70s-80s, which to me is far more impressive.  In fact, those 5 days (/27-31) had an average max of 78.0 and reached 84.  The six consecutive 70s of 3/18-23/2012 averaged 75.4 (max 78) but as they were 8-9 days earlier their departures averaged greater than in 1998.  In any case, both those March torches rise far above this month.  So might 1986, 1962 and perhaps other years that I'm not about to sift the data to search out.  I'll just enjoy this year's run, especially since before today it was full sun and light winds - perfect.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

We were wedged for a day i the middle of that warmup. I was in MHT at the time...so 3/29 is legit. It was thrust out pretty easily the next day though. Around midnight into the morning of April Fool’s screen doors slammed shut and it quickly went from a mild night around 70° down to the 40s with drizzle and dropped all day.

man...

fascinate the hate - that's all we can do with 'em

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I wouldn't be shocked if we see a GEFs based PNA correct up in tonight's computation.

If there's any continuity off the 12z run, that PNA is gonna rise - the EPS and GEFs mean have preludes to some sort of bigger warm signal formulating in upon their D9 -> ..

So it's a distant signal ...but seeing both those guidance source in tight agreement on a low frequency wave ejection that is anchored subtropically and arcs to the Dakota latitudes on D10 getting ready to roll easward, ...I've seen that before a summer Sanoran heat expulsion ... here we are April

I also want to point out that some notable April heat has happened in the past following cool ENSO winter - 

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3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

The models all pop the secondary too late now. I don't see that trend reversing. I had a feeling NNE would end the dry spell with back-to-back rainy cutters. Oh well...

Time for GYX to bust out the "atmospheric river" talk, I guess.

I still think we’ve got another warning event coming at some point.  Mostly because I trust climo (maybe too much) and even if it’s April 14th, I think we still have one in the tank.  At the very least spring cut-off season has led to some monster upslope events after a cutter or something as lows meander around NE of here.

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Dew point up to 44F now, compared to 19F yesterday at this time.  That 25F increase in dews is notable... the air doesn't have that immediate chill around sunset that was in place the last several days.  The temperature isn't going to plummet immediately below freezing tonight.

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3 more torch days.. then back to normal to slightly above . Couple more cutters it looks like, so we’ll probably see those extra warm, muggy one day spikes that are too cool on guidance now, and then a quick 1 day cool blast with wind behind them. If that keeps up, you’d think we see at least one severe threat in Napril 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3 more torch days.. then back to normal to slightly above . Couple more cutters it looks like, so we’ll probably see those extra warm, muggy one day spikes that are too cool on guidance now, and then a quick 1 day cool blast with wind behind them. If that keeps up, you’d think we see at least one severe threat in Napril 

Cold start to April. Fisher went wild today at BOS.

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37 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

shorts a definite today once the murk clears out.  won't be suprised to see a sharp green-up today.

mm.. having my doubts - but I usually do when day's that are supposed to bust out, but the dawn reveals the way that this one has... - sometimes I end up surprised, sometimes I don't.

But high res vis imagery shows that paint-spill on the pavement look while synoptic cloud traffic whizzes by over top - that's a signature for low cloud smear in a saturated soup inversion that is effectively trapped. 

 

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