March 2021 Weather Discussion

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

1998 at ASH
3/25 50F
3/26 63F
3/27 77F
3/28 88F
3/29 73F
3/30 84F
3/31 90F

You’re right, This isn’t even close to the above temps. Just More fake news. 

[wx2fish]

Hard to ignore the min temps in the 20s at ASH for most of this stretch so far

[Typhoon Tip]

57 minutes ago, dendrite said:

1998 at ASH
3/25 50F
3/26 63F
3/27 77F
3/28 88F
3/29 73F
3/30 84F
3/31 90F

It was warmer than that still back WSW toward Lowell on the 29th -

Oh yeah... 3/29 was 87 up there on the monitor for the UML weather lab station - curious actually why KASH was 73... hm...  Either way, the next day on 3/30 was 88, and then 3/31 was 89! zomb ...

I've spun yore about what happened later on in the evening of the 31st that fateful day. The greatest backdoor front attributed, 1 hour temperature declination I had ever prior to, or since experienced while being a resident to anywhere east of the Hudson.  I did once come close in 2003, while working a gig that was set above the CVS at the 900 block of Comm Ave..across from B.C.'s then being built arena/rec center... It was 93 ish at 1 or so P.M. It was mid April ... Like all of 10 minutes passed the Labrador Current's seasonal nadir as it kisses by New England's coast as nice little foreshadow ...hm, maybe 89 in March and 93 in mid April isn't entirely synoptically stable - you think?

In she swept!  I distinctly recall the sky had two layers plainly observable: one was the on going cumulus ... the arriving BD was too shallow yet so the failed towers continued leaning NE... while underneath, shallow sailor's spirit scud racing SW...  Peering down from that 2nd floor over the Red line stop there... college girls clad in short-shorts with exposed thighs and halter tops stood arms crossed in huddles ... probably quite confused.  It was already 49 with wind funneling up the Ave. Ended up around 41 or so by early evening all through Metrowest...

 On March 31, 1998 it was 84F at 6 pm 3 hours after touching the 89.

It was 37F at midnight, 30 F of which shed in < 30 minutes between 7 and 8pm... You talk slammin' screen doors and snapping flags?  man - this was no 22 kt puffer BD ...these were whole gales for 15 minutes when that sucker ripped through.

Oh it was classic too - the 3pm analysis still back in the DIFAX days (although the web was catching on as a transmission/data dependency...) displayed a powerful S/W slicing SE just NE of Caribou up over far E Ontario...and immediately in the NVA region behind the cold frontal teeth were point literally not figuratively SW ... like it was a true BD.

As an aside, it seems we haven't really had 'that' particular ilk of BD in recent years... You know? where rolls in cold air form the NE ..and the front its self cuts rudely underneath a buoyant light warm air. I mean it's arguable either way... but in most of these lately - to me - seem more like N-door fronts, then a kind of secondary NE 'acceleration' - which may in fact be an amorphous BD genesis after the fact.. But it's a tedious distinction, either way.. 

Anyway, Caribous Maine at that 3pm hour was gusting on ASOS to 47kts!   NE... it was 41 after they had a record high - not sure...want to say 73... The radar had the boundary, too.  I guess it doesn't take long to get from KCAR to KBED at 45 kts, huh?

[dryslot]

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I see the 00z Euro is looking more weak and lame. Here comes the seasonal trend.

Good reason i did not invest, Nor did i want too, Looks to stay north.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I see the 00z Euro is looking more weak and lame. Here comes the seasonal trend.

 

And it's so persistent, and common among all guidance. So much so it reeks of some sort of technological or systemic aspect about 'modeling technology' in general.  Maybe something that emerges when they are only so constrained ... becomes more amplitude than is real, out in time.  If they can't "do it all" perfect, the little bit of uncertainty squirts out emergent events in a sense.

It's complex shit ..but, we learned in college in free discussion in FAST II that the only way to really forecast with 100% accuracy out in time, is to know precisely two aspect: 

one, what every quantum momentum state in real time is, of every incalculably large number of particles that make up the fluid mass of the atmosphere; 

two, predict the future of what/when/how/why those particle will "emerge" forces (chaos/fractals in other words) via synergistically in their interaction, and/or unknown outside influences to the system - which by definition of 'unknown,' therein represents a particular problem... 

Now..."I'm just a caveman and your fancy flying machines frighten me" ...but that 'sounds' a good deal like God to me.  Lol -  particularly in the latter of those two.

The first one...mm, maybe in some sort of far off futuristic Star Trekkian landscape of utopian technological wonder that kind of measuring can lay-in the initialization grids ... Even if so the computing power there after ? Even with these so dubbed PITA FLOP drives that can do like trillion cubit calculations in nano time, that'd be like asking a chimp to solve E=MC2 ... may take awhile.  Definitely need to call in "Data" and "Geordi LaForge" on that one... Ha.   'Course, by extension of Moore's Law ...any capacity to do all that ...prooobably has the ability to 'control' the weather anyway... Somehow with some kind of Quantum Scale Oscillation core of the Weather Modification Net, so to speak ...and there's no reason at that point to predict anything - the weather will be exactly what they want it to be. 

Can you imagine how silly this cinema rush weird addiction in here would be if the charts were being created in Kevin's basement??  oooh sign me up -

I dunno - but it's been down right dependable.  Throw a D12 giant thing on he charts, then spend 80 cycles figuring out how to get rid of it...  IF you have a historic bomb on a D9 chart, you get a pedestrian/ mid -grade event.  If you have a mid grade event, you get nothin'... 

Unless it's Dec 17 lol ... I mean there have been some that worked out..

[PhineasC]

43 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Good reason i did not invest, Nor did i want too, Looks to stay north.

CMC is just back-to-back rainers now. 

 Try again next fall. 

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

CMC is just back-to-back rainers now. 

 Try again next fall. 

Season in seasons, Next up fishing.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

CMC is just back-to-back rainers now. 

 Try again next fall. 

Euro also

Sorry

[yoda]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro also

Sorry

Winter is ovah

[PhineasC]

The models all pop the secondary too late now. I don't see that trend reversing. I had a feeling NNE would end the dry spell with back-to-back rainy cutters. Oh well...

Time for GYX to bust out the "atmospheric river" talk, I guess.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The models all pop the secondary too late now. I don't see that trend reversing. I had a feeling NNE would end the dry spell with back-to-back rainy cutters. Oh well...

Time for GYX to bust out the "atmospheric river" talk, I guess.

I'd still watch that ...

The Euro may yet be overdone, but that seasonal trend stuff is not true 'always,' either... If that 500 mb looks that way tomorrow, that's a pretty dicey scenario N of PWM north and E... 

Despite my own doubts, I am also open minded... I mean it's not impossible to bring a short duration deal to the doorsteps up there and that's too close to discount entirely just yet.. 

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It was warmer than that still back WSW toward Lowell on the 29th -

Oh yeah... 3/29 was 87 up there on the monitor for the UML weather lab station - curious actually why KASH was 73... hm...  Either way, the next day on 3/30 was 88, and then 3/31 was 89! zomb ...

I've spun yore about what happened later on in the evening of the 31st that fateful day. The greatest backdoor front attributed, 1 hour temperature declination I had ever prior to, or since experienced while being a resident to anywhere east of the Hudson.  I did once come close in 2003, while working a gig that was set above the CVS at the 900 block of Comm Ave..across from B.C.'s then being built arena/rec center... It was 93 ish at 1 or so P.M. It was mid April ... Like all of 10 minutes passed the Labrador Current's seasonal nadir as it kisses by New England's coast as nice little foreshadow ...hm, maybe 89 in March and 93 in mid April isn't entirely synoptically stable - you think?

In she swept!  I distinctly recall the sky had two layers plainly observable: one was the on going cumulus ... the arriving BD was too shallow yet so the failed towers continued leaning NE... while underneath, shallow sailor's spirit scud racing SW...  Peering down from that 2nd floor over the Red line stop there... college girls clad in short-shorts with exposed thighs and halter tops stood arms crossed in huddles ... probably quite confused.  It was already 49 with wind funneling up the Ave. Ended up around 41 or so by early evening all through Metrowest...

 On March 31, 1998 it was 84F at 6 pm 3 hours after touching the 89.

It was 37F at midnight, 30 F of which shed in < 30 minutes between 7 and 8pm... You talk slammin' screen doors and snapping flags?  man - this was no 22 kt puffer BD ...these were whole gales for 15 minutes when that sucker ripped through.

Oh it was classic too - the 3pm analysis still back in the DIFAX days (although the web was catching on as a transmission/data dependency...) displayed a powerful S/W slicing SE just NE of Caribou up over far E Ontario...and immediately in the NVA region behind the cold frontal teeth were point literally not figuratively SW ... like it was a true BD.

As an aside, it seems we haven't really had 'that' particular ilk of BD in recent years... You know? where rolls in cold air form the NE ..and the front its self cuts rudely underneath a buoyant light warm air. I mean it's arguable either way... but in most of these lately - to me - seem more like N-door fronts, then a kind of secondary NE 'acceleration' - which may in fact be an amorphous BD genesis after the fact.. But it's a tedious distinction, either way.. 

Anyway, Caribous Maine at that 3pm hour was gusting on ASOS to 47kts!   NE... it was 41 after they had a record high - not sure...want to say 73... The radar had the boundary, too.  I guess it doesn't take long to get from KCAR to KBED at 45 kts, huh?

CAR hit a record 73 on 3/30/1962, then their warmest March day - 2012 brought 73/75/73 on 20-22.   Probably had a solid BD as 3/31 and 4/1 each recorded 3.3" SN. 
3/30-31/98 there had highs of 51 and 44, with 0.8" on the 31st.  On those days I was with 2 co-workers on state-managed forest a few miles outside the NE corner of Baxter Park, scoping out a later training visit.  On those 2 days the 2-day temp range there was about 37/33, with occasional sprinkles and some IP on the 31nd.  Some dense fog on that day as well.  Had zero awareness that it was a scorcher to the south.

[PhineasC]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd still watch that ...

The Euro may yet be overdone, but that seasonal trend stuff is not true 'always' ... If that 500 mb looks that way tomorrow, that's a pretty dicey scenario N of PWM north and E... 

Despite my own doubts, I am also open minded... I mean it's not impossible to bring a short duration deal to the doorsteps up there. 

 

I could see a scenario of some snow after a bunch of rain, not denying that. But this late in the season getting 4" of slop after an inch of rain is not super exciting. 

[tamarack]

31 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Season in seasons, Next up fishing.

Looked at Flying Pond yesterday afternoon, and what I saw convinced me to dump my shiners into the little tributary of Muddy Brook that runs thru our woodlot.  (There was a good shiner population - otters sure thought so - in the beaver pond on the lot until the beaver left about 2010 and the dam failed 3 years later.)

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I could see a scenario of some snow after a bunch of rain, not denying that. But this late in the season getting 4" of slop after an inch of rain is not super exciting. 

She gone.

[NW_of_GYX]

Just now, PhineasC said:

I could see a scenario of some snow after a bunch of rain, not denying that. But this late in the season getting 4" of slop after an inch of rain is not super exciting. 

Your model run flipping is as bad as any poster on here. Relax and enjoy your 4" of slop while it's 70 degrees in the MA. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, NW_of_GYX said:

Your model run flipping is as bad as any poster on here. Relax and enjoy your 4" of slop while it's 70 degrees in the MA. 

With all due respect (which is zero), I couldn't care less what you think.

[dryslot]

Just now, tamarack said:

Looked at Flying Pond yesterday afternoon, and what I saw convinced me to dump my shiners into the little tributary of Muddy Brook that runs thru our woodlot.  (There was a good shiner population - otters sure thought so - in the beaver pond on the lot until the beaver left about 2010 and the dam failed 3 years later.)

I have a pond nearby that i kind of keep under wraps that i throw a couple bait traps in that produce some nice common shiners with more yellowish scales that the salmon and lake trout just thoroughly enjoy.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I could see a scenario of some snow after a bunch of rain, not denying that. But this late in the season getting 4" of slop after an inch of rain is not super exciting. 

Yeah I get ya ...  Not trending right for a 'big kahoona' event -

Frankly, I know you didn't asked but part of my gear shifting and warm season enthusiasm is ...I admit, engagement fatigue -

I mean I just get sick of it.. the whole everything.  I don't care what bomb is on what f'n chart after March 1 any year...OR it had better be greater in prominence and awe-capacity to offset the exhaustion.  I'm just ready to do something else - anything...by March, so long as it is not following cyclone disappointment lol

The reason I bring that up is because of that right there, in the Euro.. .Like, doesn't that routine get old... wringing hands in want, only to know that July is nearing at the gravity-time constant of the cosmos ...ain't helping. I guess I'm weird...

By the way - for Scott - nice Sanoran/SW heat release setting up on the D10 Euro!   who's with me -

[NW_of_GYX]

Just now, PhineasC said:

With all due respect (which is zero), I couldn't care less what you think.

whoa there, right back at ya chief 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

CAR hit a record 73 on 3/30/1962, then their warmest March day - 2012 brought 73/75/73 on 20-22.   Probably had a solid BD as 3/31 and 4/1 each recorded 3.3" SN. 
3/30-31/98 there had highs of 51 and 44, with 0.8" on the 31st.  On those days I was with 2 co-workers on state-managed forest a few miles outside the NE corner of Baxter Park, scoping out a later training visit.  On those 2 days the 2-day temp range there was about 37/33, with occasional sprinkles and some IP on the 31nd.  Some dense fog on that day as well.  Had zero awareness that it was a scorcher to the south.

Yeah ..It may have been PWM that had the 73 high ... I know that CAR had the NE wind gusts though. I remember seeing that in a special ASOS interval.  It could be that the BD was just formulating ahead of that acceleration - speculation...

 

[tamarack]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ..It may have been PWM that had the 73 high ... I know that CAR had the NE wind gusts though. I remember seeing that in a special ASOS interval.  It could be that the BD was just formulating ahead of that acceleration - speculation...

 

PWM hit 88 on 3/31 and 48 the next day.  BD slam!

[tamarack]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I have a pond nearby that i kind of keep under wraps that i throw a couple bait traps in that produce some nice common shiners with more yellowish scales that the salmon and lake trout just thoroughly enjoy.

We had golden shiners up to 10" long at the NNJ lake where I fished in the 50s and 60s.  My killer lures there were a large gold Rapala (silver was good, gold great) and a gold-colored hardware lure much like a phoebe but it outfished a phoebe 10 to 1.  It was made by the Al's Goldfish outfit but I haven't seen one on the rack in 20 years as the lesser lure swept it off the market.  I still have one, which I use only rarely - some day a big pike will engulf it so deep that the wire leader is in its gullet and the regular line in its teeth, with predictable results.

[dryslot]

Just now, tamarack said:

We had golden shiners up to 10" long at the NNJ lake where I fished in the 50s and 60s.  My killer lures there were a large gold Rapala (silver was good, gold great) and a gold-colored hardware lure much like a phoebe but it outfished a phoebe 10 to 1.  It was made by the Al's Goldfish outfit but I haven't seen one on the rack in 20 years as the lesser lure swept it off the market.  I still have one, which I use only rarely - some day a big pike will engulf it so deep that the wire leader is in its gullet and the regular line in its teeth, with predictable results.

Yup, They love the golden's, I had some red fins from a brook that was a few miles away from that pond and the fish laughed at them, Not even a strike and i thought they looked amazing, Not so i guess to the fish as there being trolled thru the depths.

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ..It may have been PWM that had the 73 high ... I know that CAR had the NE wind gusts though. I remember seeing that in a special ASOS interval.  It could be that the BD was just formulating ahead of that acceleration - speculation...

 

We were wedged for a day i the middle of that warmup. I was in MHT at the time...so 3/29 is legit. It was thrust out pretty easily the next day though. Around midnight into the morning of April Fool’s screen doors slammed shut and it quickly went from a mild night around 70° down to the 40s with drizzle and dropped all day.

[tamarack]

44 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I could see a scenario of some snow after a bunch of rain, not denying that. But this late in the season getting 4" of slop after an inch of rain is not super exciting. 

That 4" slop after RA looks like BML's fate on the 12z GFS.  You would do better then they would if that run verified.  FVE would get pounded - RA to advisory-level SN Friday night then 10-12 (or more if the ratio is 10+) Sunday night.

[Torch Tiger]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

If you want a name change just let me know. We only allow 1 account.

my bad, have seen several people start new accounts and ditch old ones.  but seemed like my entire ip range was banned.. .:/

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro also

Sorry

Told em 

[Damage In Tolland]

What a torch! 2nd all time 

 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a torch! 2nd all time