PhineasC Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Might be an elevated tstm risk early Friday in NNE, and then perhaps srfc based stuff in then aftn across the same area. Lets get some floods there. Let’s not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2021 Author Share Posted March 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, 512high said: DEW'S neighbor? Same town lol It's Dews. But he used to be Free_Man or whatever he was back in the day. Before the Aliens probed him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's Dews. But he used to be Free_Man or whatever he was back in the day. Before the Aliens probed him. Just joined.. with one post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2021 Author Share Posted March 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just joined.. with one post I can join as a new person too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's Dews. But he used to me Free_Man or whatever he was back in the day. Before the Aliens probed him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Good morning GS 1717. Now that could certainly explain some of our post reactions. Judging from that good fellows hair he may be in the ‘been there and done that’ group. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 I see the 00z Euro is looking more weak and lame. Here comes the seasonal trend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I see the 00z Euro is looking more weak and lame. Here comes the seasonal trend. WTTTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 38 minutes ago, rclab said: Good morning GS 1717. Now that could certainly explain some of our post reactions. Judging from that good fellows hair he may be in the ‘been there and done that’ group. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 10 hours ago, PhineasC said: Maybe some here haven't seen real "high dews" like Augusta, GA in July. I come from a place of high dews. The kind of weather where you need another shower by 9 AM sometimes. I have no idea why anyone would want that, unless they didn't understand what "high dews" really meant. PWM recorded a 77° TD in early August 1988 - that's more than enough for me. Worst of my experience was in Sept 1965 during pre-season football practice at Hopkins. One evening at 11 Baltimore (exact site unknown) was reporting 86° with rh 85% so TD was 81. Water was running down the inside walls of the concrete room where we bunked. Practice in pads was great fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 This has to be one of the tamest months of March in New England weather history....the highlight so far has been a 10 minute snow squall... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: This has to be one of the tamest months of March in New England weather history....the highlight so far has been a 10 minute snow squall... Some tree-toppling wind in the 1st half of the month, but otherwise that's right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 I realize the snark .. but, I still wonder if the April is that bad this year ... I originally surmised a few weeks ago, the plausibility of a La Nina and/or HC in combination, might eventually take over where the AO relaxes... serving up a warmer spring tendency. Unsure if it is for those reasons but regardless, this week is a good head start toward that statistical outcome. We'll see... Also, just looking at the Hemisphere from orbit: there are plenty of identifiable R-wave structures to gage the flow; that means the correlations are alive and well. I heard folks tossing the telecon breakdown out there... you're right in a vacuum but I'm not sure it is applicable to the here and now just yet. I mean yeah, at some point more nebular structures/'noise' will make negative and positive NAOs or PNAs less usefully telling... I don't believe the status of the hemisphere and the modeling out in time really represents we are in that state anytime soon. By the way, ...don't be shocked if the -NAO out there in the EPS and GEFs ... corrects more neutral. I'm only mentioning because of trends since the AO recovery began last month. These extended ranged polarward indexes have been sagging their curves out there, only to lift them up when D10-14 gets nearer in time. Just sayn' The 00z Euro - as we discussed - now more progressive and not as mechanically foreboding with that D6/7 system. It's a predictable correction scheme with that tool. Any modestly +PNAP structure with a S/W up in Manitoba on D9 and look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Might be an elevated tstm risk early Friday in NNE, and then perhaps srfc based stuff in then aftn across the same area. Lets get some floods there. Given the relative paucity of snowpack - no safer way to diminish it than the wx Sunday thru today - it would take a 2-3" warm RA to cause any flooding beyond some big puddles. And except for northern Maine, ice on streams/rivers has softened and eroded from below, so the ice jam threat seems to be minimal outside of the St. John and its tributaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2021 Author Share Posted March 24, 2021 Morning MCS here Friday? Lots of MUCAPE. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 All it takes is some modest ridging to get record temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 15 minutes ago, TorchTiger said: hard to believe it's only March...just another +20 day, or better Thursday... Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the week with daily record highs possibly being challenged. See the Climate section for details. Both the NAEFS and EC ENS situational awareness table show height and temperature field above the 99th percentile on Thursday, with 850mb temperatures rising to +10C to +12C. There remains some questions how quickly clearing could take place. As such, have utilized the 75th percentile to yield highs in the low to mid 70s, with the CT River valley having better chances of outperforming in temperatures because of the longer duration of sunshine. Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 24009985220 -3701 191408 55071105 30000742621 -2603 172703 59141308 36000762445 01501 171911 59171310 Most probably don't know wtf these numbers mean... but I love them nonetheless. The NAM model is probably not going to be around forever and with the direction of the tech ambit and so forth... it's trivially a waste of time to learn how to decode FOUS at this point - ha, man... When I was in college back when dinosaurs roamed ... if you were good at doing so and could visualize between neighboring FOUS sites ( ALB/LGA...ETC..) ...you really didn't need any of these graphical cinemas that we use for for entertainment than analytics these days .. Anyway...they are from the 12z NAM's FOUS grid for Logan ... The first bold is 24 hours from 8am just this morning - so 8am Thurs. The next, '09', mean 0.09 QPF... so that implies up to that point in time, light rain. The next is the wind about middle boundary layer, add a 0 by conventional usage yields 140 degrees ( SE/SSE). The next are temperatures are 980, 900 and 800 mb respectively... and still an inversion between the 980 mb and 900 mb ( 11C at 900 mb is pretty toasty for late March!), while it is only +7 below... That is a classic pre-warm frontal environment, 900 at 11 ...the boundary is nearby. Probably CT is already busted into warm sector there. The next row... bold, are the RH at 700 and 500 mb respectively. 50 to 70% is considered "partly cloud" by old school convention... SO, modulate accordingly.. These are showing/suggesting over eastern Mass, the sky is open and clear. That 74 (unbold) is because it is muggy actually.. .and that lower number can either mean low clouds or elevated DP - in this case..it's may be some of both..but I probably leans clear with blue tinted hills in a muggy appeal. The next bold, "27" ... again that is the wind having veered around the west in the middle boundary layer. Where available ... I suspect MOS busts too cool given that look. All that progression above is what it looks like with a strong warm front goes through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2021 Author Share Posted March 24, 2021 NAM 250 RH does try to get some cirrus in here tomorrow aftn. May have to watch to see if that has an effect on temps, but it may not occur until late day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Morning MCS here Friday? Lots of MUCAPE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 16 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: Yeah, a hugger or cutter seems more likely. Persistence If you want a name change just let me know. We only allow 1 account. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM 250 RH does try to get some cirrus in here tomorrow aftn. May have to watch to see if that has an effect on temps, but it may not occur until late day. Places will hit 80. Book it Dano Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM 250 RH does try to get some cirrus in here tomorrow aftn. May have to watch to see if that has an effect on temps, but it may not occur until late day. yeah ..that's a draw back of that approach using FOUS grids ... not sure why that never has offered that 300 mb milk layer like that. ...sooo many warm days of yore that busted less because of that elevated RH shit. I once saw it 22C at 850 mb, and 88 F at the sfc under a white sky 300 mb ceiling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Good call Brian - ... or 3km NAM I guess ? but my interpretation of today was way too pessimistic from a couple night's ago. It looked at the time like murk and pre-warm frontal sludge .. but it's dry as a bone and very high ceilings... Still 61 here ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 although... judging by radar/now at a larger scope..it's pretty shitting from NY south .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 GFS looks like shit. This one is slipping away for NNE. Maybe another shot in April. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 AWT.. right from Scooters boss. This warmth only behind 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 preview of this summer.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: AWT.. right from Scooters boss. This warmth only behind 2012. There's no way this was warmer than 1998 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: There's no way this was warmer than 1998 there. 1998 at ASH 3/25 50F 3/26 63F 3/27 77F 3/28 88F 3/29 73F 3/30 84F 3/31 90F 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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