Torch Tiger Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, George001 said: I know I said it was unlikely a couple of days ago but the models have changed since then. The chances of a massive ocean low have increased quite a bit. We have seen the changes we needed to see in the Atlantic, instead of a consolidated polar vortex over the pole we have a piece diving into the central us, phasing with the southern stream. We also have a small lobe east of Nova Scotia, which creates a mechanism to prevent the storm from escaping, leading to a slow mover. Imo the euro solution that gives NNE 2 feet is very possible and cannot be dismissed. Hell even down in se mass I’m watching it. This is going to be a big one, and the models have the track only 50 miles too late for us in southeast mass. If we can get that lobe east of Nova Scotia to back in to the south and west a bit, it will force the low to transfer farther south and undergo earlier cyclogenesis. If this happens, the storm would stall over nantucket instead of the gulf of Maine, which would bring those 2ft+ totals into all of eastern mass including the cape. Yes it will start as rain, but due to the rapid cyclogenesis the low will create its own cold air and will dynamically cool the atmosphere which will not only change the rain to snow, but it will increase the ratios as well. Since the low is going to stall, a slow moving blizzard is very possible if not likely and the areas to the north and west of the low where it stalls will easily get over 2 feet, possibly 3-4 feet (likely in the mountains). Honestly even James and Anthony are in the game, they need a lot more to go right but the pattern currently modeled suggests there is room for the low to transfer farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: May 2021 is going to suck isn't it? Endless 55 F 42 F and drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Given how other guidance looks, that isn't a far fetched look for NNE at least. Not sure why so many are dismissing it. NNE climo sensei J.Spin told them not to lose faith. Spring never moves in for good in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, George001 said: I know I said it was unlikely a couple of days ago but the models have changed since then. The chances of an massive ocean low have increased somewhat quite a bit. We have seen the changes we needed to see in the Atlantic, instead of a consolidated polar vortex over the pole we have a piece diving into the central us, phasing with the southern stream. We also have a small lobe east of Nova Scotia, which creates a mechanism to prevent the storm from escaping, leading to a slow mover. Imo the euro solution that gives NNE 2 feet in products that typically exaggerate snow totaling is very more possible for now and cannot be dismissed. Hell even down in se mass I’m watching it. This is going to be a big one, and The models have the track only 50 miles too late for us in southeast mass. If we can get that lobe east of Nova Scotia to back in to the south and west a bit, it will force the low to transfer farther south and undergo earlier cyclogenesis. If this happens, the storm could would stall over nantucket instead of the gulf of Maine, which would bring those 2ft+ totals impacts into all of eastern mass including the cape. Yes it will start as rain, but due to the rapid cyclogenesis the low will create its own cold air and will dynamically cool the atmosphere which will not only change the rain to snow, but it will increase the ratios as well. Since the low is going to might stall, a slow moving event blizzard is very possible if not likely and the areas to the north and west of the low where it stalls will easily get over 2 feet, possibly 3-4 feet (likely in the mountains). Honestly even James and Anthony are in the game, they need a lot more to go right but the pattern currently modeled suggests there is room for the low to transfer farther south. For the love of all that's good and decent would you please adopt a tamer set of adjectives ! jesus H. christ - ...you're not being taken seriously friend. Do yourself a favor and try to absorb the constructive purpose of the corrections above. All those crossed out phrase components - get rid of that imaginative stuff and save it for your spin-off series of "Guess what, things tend to wake up at Dawn anyway" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 I hope that happens for the sake of my forecast across NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 certainly is redic out there today. 70 is my nick high and 68 is my base max ... for a couple of hours while immersed in post equinox sun and very light wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Gonna pay for great weather immensely Pucker up you city slickers..the backwoods is coming for you soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: For the love of all that's good and decent would you please adopt a tamer set of adjectives ! jesus H. christ - ...you're not being taken seriously friend. Do yourself a favor and try to absorb the constructive purpose of the corrections above. All those crossed out phrase components - get rid of that imaginative stuff and save it for your spin-off series of "Guess what, things tend to wake up at Dawn anyway" .....asked by George 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 nice soaker, no drought talk for a few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 warm in PEI also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 40 minutes ago, George001 said: I know I said it was unlikely a couple of days ago but the models have changed since then. The chances of a massive ocean low have increased quite a bit. We have seen the changes we needed to see in the Atlantic, instead of a consolidated polar vortex over the pole we have a piece diving into the central us, phasing with the southern stream. We also have a small lobe east of Nova Scotia, which creates a mechanism to prevent the storm from escaping, leading to a slow mover. Imo the euro solution that gives NNE 2 feet is very possible and cannot be dismissed. Hell even down in se mass I’m watching it. This is going to be a big one, and the models have the track only 50 miles too late for us in southeast mass. If we can get that lobe east of Nova Scotia to back in to the south and west a bit, it will force the low to transfer farther south and undergo earlier cyclogenesis. If this happens, the storm would stall over nantucket instead of the gulf of Maine, which would bring those 2ft+ totals into all of eastern mass including the cape. Yes it will start as rain, but due to the rapid cyclogenesis the low will create its own cold air and will dynamically cool the atmosphere which will not only change the rain to snow, but it will increase the ratios as well. Since the low is going to stall, a slow moving blizzard is very possible if not likely and the areas to the north and west of the low where it stalls will easily get over 2 feet, possibly 3-4 feet (likely in the mountains). Honestly even James and Anthony are in the game, they need a lot more to go right but the pattern currently modeled suggests there is room for the low to transfer farther south. One day you are going to end up in a "bad weatherman meme" like the one below..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 40 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It's not a lie if you believe it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Just now, Hoth said: It's not a lie if you believe it. (love that show what a classic) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Just ridiculous air mass. Daytime maxes have been +25 while the mins have been like -2, ha. Last 4 days diurnal ranges have been: 41, 43, 48, and at least 46 today. Low of 22F this morning and high of 68F so far. Dew point is 14F for 12% RH. What a stretch of weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: For the love of all that's good and decent would you please adopt a tamer set of adjectives ! jesus H. christ - ...you're not being taken seriously friend. Do yourself a favor and try to absorb the constructive purpose of the corrections above. All those crossed out phrase components - get rid of that imaginative stuff and save it for your spin-off series of "Guess what, things tend to wake up at Dawn anyway" We need track changes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: CNN takes 'Trumpism' incindiary rhetoric to degrees of immortality that Trump himself would be jealous of... with their headlining tactical fear mongering, and turn of phraseology ... but, this is still alarming without their assisting in one doomscrolling their web source for profit... The GL eco systems is on the verge because of this. There are a lot of aquatic species that need ice in their spawning cycle .. and it is complex. Like Whitefish, need shallows to ice over so their eggs are protected, ..then when the water warms in spring there is a normal algal bloom that the fish feed on... but if the water is outside of a range ( to warm in this case..), the algae doesn't bloom... and that particular chain of dependent biota collapses... This sort of pyramidal relationship is just one in a huge life web of the lakes ecology that is on the verge... Oh, and yeah - it is climate change proven For every one of those maps from NOAA, there is also one like this: https://www.weather.gov/mkx/030814_Record_Ice_Coverage_on_Lake_Michigan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 This time last year I had like 5", and a few years ago (2018?) I got pounded with like a foot or something, I can't quite remember it was so good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 hour ago, George001 said: I know I said it was unlikely a couple of days ago but the models have changed since then. The chances of a massive ocean low have increased quite a bit. We have seen the changes we needed to see in the Atlantic, instead of a consolidated polar vortex over the pole we have a piece diving into the central us, phasing with the southern stream. We also have a small lobe east of Nova Scotia, which creates a mechanism to prevent the storm from escaping, leading to a slow mover. Imo the euro solution that gives NNE 2 feet is very possible and cannot be dismissed. Hell even down in se mass I’m watching it. This is going to be a big one, and the models have the track only 50 miles too late for us in southeast mass. If we can get that lobe east of Nova Scotia to back in to the south and west a bit, it will force the low to transfer farther south and undergo earlier cyclogenesis. If this happens, the storm would stall over nantucket instead of the gulf of Maine, which would bring those 2ft+ totals into all of eastern mass including the cape. Yes it will start as rain, but due to the rapid cyclogenesis the low will create its own cold air and will dynamically cool the atmosphere which will not only change the rain to snow, but it will increase the ratios as well. Since the low is going to stall, a slow moving blizzard is very possible if not likely and the areas to the north and west of the low where it stalls will easily get over 2 feet, possibly 3-4 feet (likely in the mountains). Honestly even James and Anthony are in the game, they need a lot more to go right but the pattern currently modeled suggests there is room for the low to transfer farther south. I never ever thought I’d say this, but you make James look tame. Holy sh*t you fantasize like no tomorrow. In the tradition of James....”Ain’t happening Georgy Porgy.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: This time last year I had like 5", and a few years ago (2018?) I got pounded with like a foot or something, I can't quite remember it was so good. context? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: James created George in his basememt Lmao...it’s alive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: For the love of all that's good and decent would you please adopt a tamer set of adjectives ! jesus H. christ - ...you're not being taken seriously friend. Do yourself a favor and try to absorb the constructive purpose of the corrections above. All those crossed out phrase components - get rid of that imaginative stuff and save it for your spin-off series of "Guess what, things tend to wake up at Dawn anyway" Coming from you, that's really funny. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 30 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Coming from you, that's really funny. mm... I have my faults as a contributor on this social media-sphere like everyone, ... I'm not sure overloading superlatives is one of them ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lmao...it’s alive.... Coming soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 52 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: For every one of those maps from NOAA, there is also one like this: https://www.weather.gov/mkx/030814_Record_Ice_Coverage_on_Lake_Michigan Keep in mind ... the water has a z-coordinate in the Lakes vitality. That is mere surface in that link, and has less corrective impact on the former - apples and oranges. The thermalcline of the water is what is alarming, in that the mid strata is staying elevated through winters, which gives the entire body thermal momentum to achieve those types of departures in summers... All of which an ice cover in a smaller mass than is normal, spanning an intraseasonal amount of time unfortunately is within normal small scale variances, that does not offset the implication of the three decades in water data monitoring/science, ongoing and involved at that GLERL division of NOAA; 2013 - 2016 featured winters with anomalous cold downward 'spikes' in along a multidecadal trend that is still unfortunately rising at an alarming rate - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm... I have my faults as a contributor on this social media-sphere like everyone, ... I'm not sure overloading superlatives is one of them ... Not Overloaded with hyperbole—just syllables. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Just ridiculous air mass. Daytime maxes have been +25 while the mins have been like -2, ha. Last 4 days diurnal ranges have been: 41, 43, 48, and at least 46 today. Low of 22F this morning and high of 68F so far. Dew point is 14F for 12% RH. What a stretch of weather. About the same minimum here, certainly a few degrees higher than yesterday's 17. Dense fog nearby (wife was up at about 4:30, noted fog here) limited cooling. Max about 63 so another 40+ range. 16th sunny day this month, tying April 2016 for most in any month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Another bone dry day here. Min of 10% RH. 63/11 13% right now. The sensor in my chicken run was 79° with 1% today...a little bit too low, but it was still probably like 4-5%. I may need a red flag warning for the bamboo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Another bone dry day here. Min of 10% RH. 63/11 13% right now. The sensor in my chicken run was 79° with 1% today...a little bit too low, but it was still probably like 4-5%. I may need a red flag warning for the bamboo. Any fires ignite in the coops from rubbing beaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 gfs cuts way NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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