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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know I said it was unlikely a couple of days ago but the models have changed since then. The chances of a massive ocean low have increased quite a bit. We have seen the changes we needed to see in the Atlantic, instead of a consolidated polar vortex over the pole we have a piece diving into the central us, phasing with the southern stream. We also have a small lobe east of Nova Scotia, which creates a mechanism to prevent the storm from escaping, leading to a slow mover. Imo the euro solution that gives NNE 2 feet is very possible and cannot be dismissed. Hell even down in se mass I’m watching it. This is going to be a big one, and the models have the track only 50 miles too late for us in southeast mass. If we can get that lobe east of Nova Scotia to back in to the south and west a bit, it will force the low to transfer farther south and undergo earlier cyclogenesis. If this happens, the storm would stall over nantucket instead of the gulf of Maine, which would bring those 2ft+ totals into all of eastern mass including the cape. Yes it will start as rain, but due to the rapid cyclogenesis the low will create its own cold air and will dynamically cool the atmosphere which will not only change the rain to snow, but it will increase the ratios as well. Since the low is going to stall, a slow moving blizzard is very possible if not likely and the areas to the north and west of the low where it stalls will easily get over 2 feet, possibly 3-4 feet (likely in the mountains). Honestly even James and Anthony are in the game, they need a lot more to go right but the pattern currently modeled suggests there is room for the low to transfer farther south.

:damage:

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16 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know I said it was unlikely a couple of days ago but the models have changed since then. The chances of an massive ocean low have increased somewhat quite a bit.

We have seen the changes we needed to see in the Atlantic, instead of a consolidated polar vortex over the pole we have a piece diving into the central us, phasing with the southern stream. We also have a small lobe east of Nova Scotia, which creates a mechanism to prevent the storm from escaping, leading to a slow mover. Imo the euro solution that gives NNE 2 feet in products that typically exaggerate snow totaling is very more possible for now and cannot be dismissed. Hell even down in se mass I’m watching it.

This is going to be a big one, and The models have the track only 50 miles too late for us in southeast mass. If we can get that lobe east of Nova Scotia to back in to the south and west a bit, it will force the low to transfer farther south and undergo earlier cyclogenesis. If this happens, the storm could would stall over nantucket instead of the gulf of Maine, which would bring those 2ft+ totals impacts into all of eastern mass including the cape. Yes it will start as rain, but due to the rapid cyclogenesis the low will create its own cold air and will dynamically cool the atmosphere which will not only change the rain to snow, but it will increase the ratios as well.

Since the low is going to might stall, a slow moving event blizzard is very possible if not likely and the areas to the north and west of the low where it stalls will easily get over 2 feet, possibly 3-4 feet (likely in the mountains). Honestly even James and Anthony are in the game, they need a lot more to go right but the pattern currently modeled suggests there is room for the low to transfer farther south.

For the love of all that's good and decent would you please adopt a tamer set of adjectives  !

jesus H. christ - :wacko2:  ...you're not being taken seriously friend.  Do yourself a favor and try to absorb the constructive purpose of the corrections above.  All those crossed out phrase components - get rid of that imaginative stuff and save it for your spin-off series of "Guess what, things tend to wake up at Dawn anyway"

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For the love of all that's good and decent would you please adopt a tamer set of adjectives  !

jesus H. christ - :wacko2:  ...you're not being taken seriously friend.  Do yourself a favor and try to absorb the constructive purpose of the corrections above.  All those crossed out phrase components - get rid of that imaginative stuff and save it for your spin-off series of "Guess what, things tend to wake up at Dawn anyway"

See the source image.....asked by George

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40 minutes ago, George001 said:

I know I said it was unlikely a couple of days ago but the models have changed since then. The chances of a massive ocean low have increased quite a bit. We have seen the changes we needed to see in the Atlantic, instead of a consolidated polar vortex over the pole we have a piece diving into the central us, phasing with the southern stream. We also have a small lobe east of Nova Scotia, which creates a mechanism to prevent the storm from escaping, leading to a slow mover. Imo the euro solution that gives NNE 2 feet is very possible and cannot be dismissed. Hell even down in se mass I’m watching it. This is going to be a big one, and the models have the track only 50 miles too late for us in southeast mass. If we can get that lobe east of Nova Scotia to back in to the south and west a bit, it will force the low to transfer farther south and undergo earlier cyclogenesis. If this happens, the storm would stall over nantucket instead of the gulf of Maine, which would bring those 2ft+ totals into all of eastern mass including the cape. Yes it will start as rain, but due to the rapid cyclogenesis the low will create its own cold air and will dynamically cool the atmosphere which will not only change the rain to snow, but it will increase the ratios as well. Since the low is going to stall, a slow moving blizzard is very possible if not likely and the areas to the north and west of the low where it stalls will easily get over 2 feet, possibly 3-4 feet (likely in the mountains). Honestly even James and Anthony are in the game, they need a lot more to go right but the pattern currently modeled suggests there is room for the low to transfer farther south.

One day you are going to end up in a "bad weatherman meme" like the one below.....

See the source image

 

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Just ridiculous air mass.  Daytime maxes have been +25 while the mins have been like -2, ha.

Last 4 days diurnal ranges have been: 41, 43, 48,  and at least 46 today.

Low of 22F this morning and high of 68F so far. Dew point is 14F for 12% RH.

What a stretch of weather.

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40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For the love of all that's good and decent would you please adopt a tamer set of adjectives  !

jesus H. christ - :wacko2:  ...you're not being taken seriously friend.  Do yourself a favor and try to absorb the constructive purpose of the corrections above.  All those crossed out phrase components - get rid of that imaginative stuff and save it for your spin-off series of "Guess what, things tend to wake up at Dawn anyway"

We need track changes!!

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

CNN takes 'Trumpism' incindiary rhetoric to degrees of immortality that Trump himself would be jealous of...  with their headlining tactical fear mongering, and turn of phraseology ... but, this is still alarming without their assisting in one doomscrolling their web source for profit...   The GL eco systems is on the verge because of this.  There are a lot of aquatic species that need ice in their spawning cycle .. and it is complex. Like Whitefish, need shallows to ice over so their eggs are protected, ..then when the water warms in spring there is a normal algal bloom that the fish feed on... but if the water is outside of a range ( to warm in this case..), the algae doesn't bloom... and that particular chain of dependent biota collapses... This sort of pyramidal relationship is just one in a huge life web of the lakes ecology that is on the verge...  Oh, and yeah - it is climate change proven

eco.thumb.jpg.ed9ce4f13f9dfde561b9ed3422dfad2c.jpg

For every one of those maps from NOAA, there is also one like this:

https://www.weather.gov/mkx/030814_Record_Ice_Coverage_on_Lake_Michigan

 

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1 hour ago, George001 said:

I know I said it was unlikely a couple of days ago but the models have changed since then. The chances of a massive ocean low have increased quite a bit. We have seen the changes we needed to see in the Atlantic, instead of a consolidated polar vortex over the pole we have a piece diving into the central us, phasing with the southern stream. We also have a small lobe east of Nova Scotia, which creates a mechanism to prevent the storm from escaping, leading to a slow mover. Imo the euro solution that gives NNE 2 feet is very possible and cannot be dismissed. Hell even down in se mass I’m watching it. This is going to be a big one, and the models have the track only 50 miles too late for us in southeast mass. If we can get that lobe east of Nova Scotia to back in to the south and west a bit, it will force the low to transfer farther south and undergo earlier cyclogenesis. If this happens, the storm would stall over nantucket instead of the gulf of Maine, which would bring those 2ft+ totals into all of eastern mass including the cape. Yes it will start as rain, but due to the rapid cyclogenesis the low will create its own cold air and will dynamically cool the atmosphere which will not only change the rain to snow, but it will increase the ratios as well. Since the low is going to stall, a slow moving blizzard is very possible if not likely and the areas to the north and west of the low where it stalls will easily get over 2 feet, possibly 3-4 feet (likely in the mountains). Honestly even James and Anthony are in the game, they need a lot more to go right but the pattern currently modeled suggests there is room for the low to transfer farther south.

I never ever thought I’d say this, but you make James look tame.  Holy sh*t you fantasize like no tomorrow.   
 

In the tradition of James....”Ain’t happening Georgy Porgy.” 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For the love of all that's good and decent would you please adopt a tamer set of adjectives  !

jesus H. christ - :wacko2:  ...you're not being taken seriously friend.  Do yourself a favor and try to absorb the constructive purpose of the corrections above.  All those crossed out phrase components - get rid of that imaginative stuff and save it for your spin-off series of "Guess what, things tend to wake up at Dawn anyway"

Coming from you, that's really funny.   :lol:

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52 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

For every one of those maps from NOAA, there is also one like this:

https://www.weather.gov/mkx/030814_Record_Ice_Coverage_on_Lake_Michigan

 

Keep in mind ... the water has a z-coordinate in the Lakes vitality. That is mere surface in that link, and has less corrective impact on the former - apples and oranges. The thermalcline of the water is what is alarming, in that the mid strata is staying elevated through winters, which gives the entire body thermal momentum to achieve those types of departures in summers...

All of which an ice cover in a smaller mass than is normal, spanning an intraseasonal amount of time unfortunately is within normal small scale variances, that does not offset the implication of the three decades in water data monitoring/science, ongoing and involved at that GLERL division of NOAA; 2013 - 2016 featured winters with anomalous cold downward 'spikes' in along a multidecadal trend that is still unfortunately rising at an alarming rate -

 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Just ridiculous air mass.  Daytime maxes have been +25 while the mins have been like -2, ha.

Last 4 days diurnal ranges have been: 41, 43, 48,  and at least 46 today.

Low of 22F this morning and high of 68F so far. Dew point is 14F for 12% RH.

What a stretch of weather.

About the same minimum here, certainly a few degrees higher than yesterday's 17.  Dense fog nearby (wife was up at about 4:30, noted fog here) limited cooling.  Max about 63 so another 40+ range.  16th sunny day this month, tying April 2016 for most in any month

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