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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

CNE/NNE People complaining about a foot snow storm progged by euro in Late March ...embarrassing 

So much for the "hardy" New Englander. I don't wants dews and don't want late season snow. Just put them all in a wheelchair. 

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yeah ... I still say there's too much amplitude/ zealous correction applied between the upper MW on D4 ...to what the Euro carries along D5 over the southern Lakes...

Which then means it ends up with -3 SD along the S. coast of SNE -

Which in itself is not unusual, but having that suspicious relay at mid range west of there .. It is a noted thing the Euro does around that temporal seam - roid rage.  Also, the heights over the SE U.S. don't typically register that high when that sort of depth is issued at 40 N ...

Red flags...

I suggest modulating that toward an NJ model low and narrowing the corridor of impact - if there is any.. It is noted that the GFS just wants that as cold fropa - but..the GFS has an N/Stream speed bias too so ... basically, two forms of error bias vying for believability - lol

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

There is no way you don't feel a little tingle still with late season events at your location. Don't effing lie. 

Of course I’d take that in SNE but it’s not even a threat as shown like that up north. Maybe it snows at the resorts, but this pattern doesn’t allow for a massive Bomb like that . Let’s cut it way north which is much more likely 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is no way you don't feel a little tingle still with late season events at your location. Don't effing lie. 

He’d be the first calling for 4-8 when it shows 2-4.   
 

Nobody is believing that magnitude at the moment...but the bigger takeaway,  is it just shows that 2012 this is not. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

He’d be the first calling for 4-8 when it shows 2-4.   
 

Nobody is believing that at the moment...but the bigger takeaway,  is it just shows that 2012 this is not. 

I will say this is one of the best wx stretches in late March that I can recall outside of 2012.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Given how other guidance looks, that isn't a far fetched look for NNE at least. Not sure why so many are dismissing it. 

Not dismissing it, The GFS and GGEM and Uncle have it too at varying degrees, I would favor elevation and northern areas though right now, That air mass has a cold look to it though.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Given how other guidance looks, that isn't a far fetched look for NNE at least. Not sure why so many are dismissing it. 

I know I said it was unlikely a couple of days ago but the models have changed since then. The chances of a massive ocean low have increased quite a bit. We have seen the changes we needed to see in the Atlantic, instead of a consolidated polar vortex over the pole we have a piece diving into the central us, phasing with the southern stream. We also have a small lobe east of Nova Scotia, which creates a mechanism to prevent the storm from escaping, leading to a slow mover. Imo the euro solution that gives NNE 2 feet is very possible and cannot be dismissed. Hell even down in se mass I’m watching it. This is going to be a big one, and the models have the track only 50 miles too late for us in southeast mass. If we can get that lobe east of Nova Scotia to back in to the south and west a bit, it will force the low to transfer farther south and undergo earlier cyclogenesis. If this happens, the storm would stall over nantucket instead of the gulf of Maine, which would bring those 2ft+ totals into all of eastern mass including the cape. Yes it will start as rain, but due to the rapid cyclogenesis the low will create its own cold air and will dynamically cool the atmosphere which will not only change the rain to snow, but it will increase the ratios as well. Since the low is going to stall, a slow moving blizzard is very possible if not likely and the areas to the north and west of the low where it stalls will easily get over 2 feet, possibly 3-4 feet (likely in the mountains). Honestly even James and Anthony are in the game, they need a lot more to go right but the pattern currently modeled suggests there is room for the low to transfer farther south.

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