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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies had that, but on the EPS, we have some ridging in the S and SE so verbatim doesn't seem that bad. But. we know how sneaky backdoors can be.

Isn’t there a correlation (even if it’s weak) between winter nao and spring/summer?

I’m wondering if we are passed the dominate +ao/nao and moving into a more blockiness period again. 

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12 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

Quite the start for the new GFS today for north central Maine - 73" total run snowfall on the 18z, lol.

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Laughable map, but that silly 70+ is Katahdin, where it snows a bit.  They'll add some white over the weekend and beyond.

Nice 44° span yesterday with 61/17, but only took another inch off the pack, maybe more sublimation than melting as the small brooks show little effect.  Seems to have stayed above 20 this morning and frost was thick, pointing toward less desert-like dews.  So did the dense fog I drove thru going to Augusta, which took until the past 20 minutes to burn off.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Frost everywhere this morning. Two mornings in a row.

Yeah, this was a razor cold layer/decoupling ...based - no doubt - on the lay into the overnight with such low DPs...

Because the FOUS grid had T1s at ALB-LGA-BOS all like +5 overnight...so...  not sure what MOS actually had, but that +5 is the synoptic low and we obviously went lower than 40 for a low.

No real warmth in the guidance overnight until the end of April -

Not sure I buy that, even removing the hyperbole.  I don't believe that Euro solution will be very successful, given to what it has to work with up there in the flow ... circa D4/5 ... it is clearly taking an "impression" - more so - of a trough mechanics up there, and you can see it flipping D7 onward, it just all the sudden cores out this massive depth from 'not enough' kinematic insert from that D4/5 sourcing.

So a little complex ...but in short ( and I know you didn't ask - just in general ...), it is unclear where the Euro get the power to to do that.  I suspect it is the Euro's correction scheme at that range - their model does not make the application of the correction application very seamless - tends to 'flash' in... overly conserves what ever it is handling around D5 ..and gives it a mechanical boost.  I was clicking through that and thinking, it's going to do it again and yup... historic low from a phantom dent in Alberta -

The other aspect which is - I admit - a personal fan favorite is the "MIami Rule" ..there is a 590 dm height ridge spanning the skies of the Gulf to southern GA/Florida and the SW Atlantic Basin, on D4 ...and the Euro digs that out of nowhere trough power, into it... without demoing any shearing from compression and velocity that would certainly have to happen if the heights attempted to lower over top of that heat wall... 

I think there is going to be a wave there... but.. perhaps a NJ model reduction would be a decent compromise... I don't buy the juggernaut for all those reasons intimated above. 

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20 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Up this way also, planning a small bbq with the folks now that they have their shots.. if I listen to you should do it on Sat if I  listen to Kev no problem.. hmmm.. wonder who I should go with.

Sunday at the least will be increasing clouds and onshore flow. Saturday probably will have morning clouds and a decent aftn with NW winds. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boring AF, but pants tent wx for this time of year. 

It feels like I just went through a good DC winter. A monster storm, big torch, nothing too cold all winter, meh pack, and then we cherry blossom in March. Hopefully we can advect in some cicadas next month too.

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It feels like I just went through a good DC winter. A monster storm, big torch, nothing too cold all winter, meh pack, and then we cherry blossom in March. Hopefully we can advect in some cicadas next month too.

Bring back the days of yore when Winni ice out was almost May. Now, it's warming up and is a few years away from brain eating amoebas. Of course those were the days when we would get cold fronts in the summer.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bring back the days of yore when Winni ice out was almost May. Now, it's warming up and is a few years away from brain eating amoebas. Of course those were the days when we would get cold fronts in the summer.

"Dad...tell me that story again about the last time Laconia had a 49F dewpoint in July."

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