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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It will be nice wx, but that was an insane week. Hopefully April and May are nice. I like the mild wx, but when it's still sort of dead outside...it doesn't have the same feeling. 

In order to have life after death , you need warmth .. Biggie Smalls.

Some rain would help too, a couple showers end of week won’t offer much help 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

In order to have life after death , you need warmth .. Biggie Smalls.

Some rain would help too, a couple showers end of week won’t offer much help 

We'll have some rain later this week and probably Sunday. Stein ain't worrying me.

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I really don't wish to be all that engaged in any drought discussion ...

However, just as an observation and experience:  I feel the next 3 ...maybe 4 weeks will be key in setting us up the rest of the way this summer - unless we do like a June 1998 thing..

The total soil moisture and longer term moisture deficits states are crucial to seasonal resilience.  When there is an abundance of arlier/warmer spring conditions , sans "April showers" normal, that climate leads to top layer issues accelerating ...  pretty fast as early as late May per my own experience.

April rain is more than an affectation... Sometimes this happens with earlier warmth prior to continental green up - green up adds atmospheric moisture, clouds and thunder follow were moisture is present. Pretty easy arithmetic there...  But when desiccation abounds prior to green up, this has a nasty negative feed-back on soil moisture ...setting the gears toward a beige lawn by the 4th of the July, as well as crop/gardening problems..   But this is no reasons to play volleyball with U.S. DS charts all summer long either..

Obviously, 70/ 25 dp ...sucks water out of anything - including the earth...   This can happen prior to reservoir depletion, which res level reduction doesn't kick in - in my own experience - until August, provided the previous year was sufficiently wet to get them at capacity prior to the onset of the warm spring in question.  Basically ...there is a lot of lag facets to this hydro shit.

We don't have a warm spring .... yet. What we have is the expectation of one, with perhaps 2 days and counting - if we negate the lows last night and priors... These diurnal averaging policies do a warm pattern a disservice at this time of year.

But, it can be warm, we just need the anti-stein events to punctuate over the course of these 3 or 4 weeks

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33 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Hey....someone want to fire up a 2021 Tropical thread to discuss whatever that is spinning over the Gulfstream south of Hatteras?  Bit early; I'm sure, for true tropical development but fairly interesting structure none the less.

Lol...

yeah, just title the thread,           :weenie:           ...while we're at it

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

2012 was pretty epic up here. Only 5 straight days of 80s.

image.png

Just looking at that 3/18 again and had to laugh. Wake up to 29F and a frosted windshield and then sweating your ass off in shorts in the afternoon 52 degrees later.

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4 hours ago, dryslot said:

Trees are starting to budd here which is kind of early but i'm not surprised.

One can easily distinguish gender of quaking aspen now (if one is interested in such things ^_^) as buds on the male trees have become large while the females' buds haven't enlarged at all.  Red maple buds should be swelling now, too, but most other trees await April.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing is like that week.

We're +10 yesterday and today, might approach +15 Thursday if the overnight is mild enough.  Not quite 2012, by 15°+,  Farmington co-op data:

18   78/31  +25
19   71/32  +22
20   80/32  +26
21   82/35  +28
22   83/36  +29
23   64/42  +22

The co-op's previous March warmest was 79 on 3/20/1903.

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11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

One can easily distinguish gender of quaking aspen now (if one is interested in such things ^_^) as buds on the male trees have become large while the females' buds haven't enlarged at all.  Red maple buds should be swelling now, too, but most other trees await April.

My red maple has budds, My pin oaks still have last years leaves left on them so those certainly have not started yet.

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Right ...come hell or high water ... something will make sure we packing pellet a trace from an overzealous virga exploded cumulus cloud over Logan on May 2nd no less 

- call it the, "Great Just Because Someone Made The Impertinent Suggestion That It Won't Snow For 8.5 Months" storm -

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It appears that we got the changes we needed on the Atlantic overnight on the models, not only have they shifted to a favorable pattern but there are 2 threats, the 28th and 31st. The setup for the first threat is more marginal, but it appears that the polar vortex is displaced to the south for the second one which increases the chances for a favorable northern stream injection that phases and delivers the cold air. It also appears that there is another Miller B threat in early April when you extrapolate the most recent Canadian run. We will be fighting climo and ptype issues with any storm we get, but I am a lot more optimistic than I was yesterday due to the drastic changes we needed in the Atlantic materializing on the overnight runs. 

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12 minutes ago, George001 said:

It appears that we got the changes we needed on the Atlantic overnight on the models, not only have they shifted to a favorable pattern but there are 2 threats, the 28th and 31st. The setup for the first threat is more marginal, but it appears that the polar vortex is displaced to the south for the second one which increases the chances for a favorable northern stream injection that phases and delivers the cold air. It also appears that there is another Miller B threat in early April when you extrapolate the most recent Canadian run. We will be fighting climo and ptype issues with any storm we get, but I am a lot more optimistic than I was yesterday due to the drastic changes we needed in the Atlantic materializing on the overnight runs. 

https://youtu.be/3Fn36l_z3WY

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17 minutes ago, George001 said:

It appears that we got the changes we needed on the Atlantic overnight on the models, not only have they shifted to a favorable pattern but there are 2 threats, the 28th and 31st. The setup for the first threat is more marginal, but it appears that the polar vortex is displaced to the south for the second one which increases the chances for a favorable northern stream injection that phases and delivers the cold air. It also appears that there is another Miller B threat in early April when you extrapolate the most recent Canadian run. We will be fighting climo and ptype issues with any storm we get, but I am a lot more optimistic than I was yesterday due to the drastic changes we needed in the Atlantic materializing on the overnight runs. 

 

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