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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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25 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This year notwithstanding, Put2 does just fine.  Getting to the point in life when I see retirement in the nit-so-distant horizon.  Then I sell Pit1 and settle in here full time. The Good Lord willing and the creek don’t rise.

I don’t think it’s the creek you need to worry about rising on the coast of Maine...

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Nothing to rely on for the day 8 threat other than model guidance. It’s spring, tele’s are poor but are losing all reliability. There’s not much to like about this potential other than it being advertised on all major guidance and this disturbance following closely in the footsteps of a different disturbance which greatly reduces chances of a cutter-type evolution. As always timing is everything.  But maybe that’s all this one needs—perfect timing? Yea take that with a grain of salt....
 

FWIW the ukie at hr 144 looks a lot like the 12z GFS at same hour so we’d get a similar outcome. For now, it’s something to watch with limited  interest in an otherwise boring period....

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The flow is somewhat amplified during the late March storm threat, with a piece of the northern branch phasing with the southern branch to create a massive ocean low. However the setup does not look conductive for snow outside the mountains, and even there it may be too warm. The issue is the polar vortex is over Greenland and there is no cold air to be found, so in my opinion the chance of an all snow storm without ptype issues is next to none. The only way we are getting snow is if the low amplifies to a historic strength and creates its own cold air to dynamically cool the column. If this happens, it would lead to a rain to historic blizzard scenario like April 1 1997. This is extremely unlikely, as with this type of pattern there is 0 room for error. I really like the look of the pacific, but I hate the look in the Atlantic right now on the models. Based on my analysis I would say there is a 999/1000 chance that we get less than an inch of snow from this storm and a 1/1000 chance we get more than that (this is a very boom or bust setup, if everything did go right and somehow we got a 960 millibar fully phased low stalling over Nantucket, we would see feet. This is EXTREMELY unlikely and I am not calling for this). We will need major changes in the Atlantic (such as the polar vortex displaced 500 miles south of where the models currently have it) for this storm threat to even have a chance at being wintry. My current call is we do get a decent sized storm, but it’s all rain.

 

 

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Homes near the beach are overrated north of the subtropics. Vacation home? Absolutely. Primary residence? No thanks.

I lived near the ocean, the solitude of a thunderous stormy winter day is top notch. Falling asleep to the sound of crashing wave after wave rocking you to sleep.  On huge wave da

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4 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I don’t think it’s the creek you need to worry about rising on the coast of Maine...

Pit 2 is way up the estuary.  Maybe a repeat of 2/2/76 but centered on the Kennebec rather than the Penobscot would be troublesome, but the Kennebec estuary is narrow and full of closely spaced islands, unlike the massive funnel of Penobscot Bay.  And if his yard there stayed above the flow in April 1987, he's probably safe from creek rises.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Pit 2 is way up the estuary.  Maybe a repeat of 2/2/76 but centered on the Kennebec rather than the Penobscot would be troublesome, but the Kennebec estuary is narrow and full of closely spaced islands, unlike the massive funnel of Penobscot Bay.  And if his yard there stayed above the flow in April 1987, he's probably safe from creek rises.

It's wide everywhere below Merrymeeting Bay save the double-back at Doubling Point.  It's 1.5 miles across from mi casa to Day's Ferry.  I'm on a 'cliff' 10' above the mean high tide.  We worry not.

 

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