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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You could always just move now and have the same effect. 

If I could convince my wife , I’ve always said I’d want to live up in Jackson area of NH in winter, and coastal SC in summer . I need good winters with snow and I need good summers with HHH, severe and cane threats . Maybe once my two daughters are into college in a few years 

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If I could convince my wife , I’ve always said I’d want to live up in Jackson area of NH in winter, and coastal SC in summer . I need good winters with snow and I need good summers with HHH, severe and cane threats . Maybe once my two daughters are into college in a few years 

Just buy the house in Jackson and tell your wife the dates to expect to be there. 

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20 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Just buy the house in Jackson and tell your wife the dates to expect to be there. 

Good morning Phineas. I understand your advice. However, in my ethnic household it would have been akin to quietly placing ‘Whoopee’ cushions on the the participants seats at the cease fire negotiations. As always ....

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9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Please stop Henry

Stop giving this guy a hard time. Yea, are the chancea for a large Snow storm slim.... Sure. But, he's not fabricating what the model is showing as of now. There has been a signal for a bit as well. I'm not sure why you are giving him a hard time though? Maybe it makes you feel better for a moment to come down on someone else. Well, you look like a bully. If you dont agree, thats fine, but its better to just not say anything at all. 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

DIT 39°  Ryan 27°

Gene 33°  Chickens 25°

Skyrockets in flight this morning once the shallow inversion mixes out. MWN 30/-15 should yield 60-65°.

- that's funny ...I forgot about that old index finger rule.  right - Mt Washington

We used to employ that down here actually, for whether 101 has a shot at Logan - I mean ... barring other bs like cloud timing and wind direction, MWN needs to be about 72 F at dawn MWN - I 'think'  it was something like this.

There's others... Like,  you look for 22 kts 850 mb from S as to whether the 32 F penetrates the interior down here in SNE in SWFE' or icing scenarios....  That's from the old days of Taunton NWS back in Walter's late 1980s ...  But it works in general whenever there's denser air mass lodged E of the Berks and Whites ..- there's probably exceptions but just as a general rule.  S at 25 kts at 850 mb and no matter what, icing ends...  21 kts, they're extending advisories because it lingering longer... Or, BD air masses gobble up the extra day and tediously aggravate because people were told the warm front would blast back through..  lol

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If I could convince my wife , I’ve always said I’d want to live up in Jackson area of NH in winter, and coastal SC in summer . I need good winters with snow and I need good summers with HHH, severe and cane threats . Maybe once my two daughters are into college in a few years 

Do you think that a climate that gives northern latitudes six months of summer is going to also give you snow and cold?

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Just buy the house in Jackson and tell your wife the dates to expect to be there. 

We had come close twice to buying a place up there (one in Jackson, one in Bartlett).  In retrospect, really happy to have scored Pit2.  Summer's the real reason for being here, but we do okay with the winter.  Sometimes we flirt with a coastal front but still manage to get similar to ORH with snows. 

 

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Had that yesterday, 51/16.  About 20 this AM so we do it again.

Started at 24* here, up to 45 now.

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

We had come close twice to buying a place up there (one in Jackson, one in Bartlett).  In retrospect, really happy to have scored Pit2.  Summer's the real reason for being here, but we do okay with the winter.  Sometimes we flirt with a coastal front but still manage to get similar to ORH with snows. 

 

Started at 24* here, up to 45 now.

I wouldn’t buy in Jackson unless at elevation like jculligan. They get hosed a lot. Saw it all winter. I was heavy snow and they were straight rain. Plus, it is super commercial/touristy there. Basically like a CT/MA suburb transplanted into the mountains. Fake feeling. I bought up here to get away from that crap since I had plenty of it in MD, that’s just me. 

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1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Stop giving this guy a hard time. Yea, are the chancea for a large Snow storm slim.... Sure. But, he's not fabricating what the model is showing as of now. There has been a signal for a bit as well. I'm not sure why you are giving him a hard time though? Maybe it makes you feel better for a moment to come down on someone else. Well, you look like a bully. If you dont agree, thats fine, but its better to just not say anything at all. 

This is true ( bold ..)

I've been largely staying out of it - frankly, because I'm being douchy and don't want it. LOL

 But here's the thing - objectively:

-  All the deterministic models, regardless of  which have been routinely over-amplifying everything their physics see at those longer leads.. They may be all doing so for their own reasons. It seems the Euro takes whatever it's handling at D4 and adds a third more amplitude to it on D7 ... Then, spends the next 3 cycles eroding it back.  The GFS on the other hand as an N/stream hemispheric monster intent ..services troughs with too much feed-back, and that perhaps is two different reasons those models end up with too much D8 amplitudes... Not sure.

- Seasonality is a factor.  If correcting for Euro flash correction scheme adding too much, and assume the GFS is a "Good For Shit" model because they keep f'ing "upgrading" it to an ever worse propensity to 'hide global warming' ... ( kidding out of frustrating ), the sun/hemispheric changes can at time un-seat these amplitude looks for that reason alone. I have seen countless large modeled trough closures end up cirrus whirls for having the models maintain too much deep layer baroclinic parametrics ...it's like they don't integrate the solar modulation aspect properly most of the time in Springs.  But, big nasty cold events do happen through April...  It seems to be timing is crucial in getting the deeds down; the cold insert needs to happen sort in a critical window, or the whole structure falls victim -  we're in that time of year after the Equinox...  

Deterministically ...these are offsets.

In favor?   The NAO is rising as the PNA is showing a couple of camel bumps out there.  That is actually a likeable telecon layout.  The flow wants to lift in latitude, but the PNA may deposit meaningful wave in there... and that may close it off. Come to think of it I actually mentioned that to PhineasC a few nights ago in passing ...so it's been sort of out there -

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I wouldn’t buy in Jackson unless at elevation like jculligan. They get hosed a lot. Saw it all winter. I was heavy snow and they were straight rain. Plus, it is super commercial/touristy there. Basically like a CT/MA suburb transplanted into the mountains. Fake feeling. I bought up here to get away from that crap since I had plenty of it in MD, that’s just me. 

They’ll struggle with upslope, but they rake it in with SWFEs. We just didn’t have any to come by this season which is strange. It was a weird year.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They’ll struggle with upslope, but they rake it in with SWFEs. We just didn’t have any to come by this season which is strange. It was a weird year.

There was no reason to leave Mass this winter.  I can’t wait to be here full time.  Best of summer and winter.  Spring sucks in the Midcoast though.  (Not today, though!).

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21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

We had come close twice to buying a place up there (one in Jackson, one in Bartlett).  In retrospect, really happy to have scored Pit2.  Summer's the real reason for being here, but we do okay with the winter.  Sometimes we flirt with a coastal front but still manage to get similar to ORH with snows. 

 

Started at 24* here, up to 45 now.

Buy a Pit 3 in N NH to increase your odds of a snowy winter. 

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9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This year notwithstanding, Put2 does just fine.  Getting to the point in life when I see retirement in the nit-so-distant horizon.  Then I sell Pit1 and settle in here full time. The Good Lord willing and the creek don’t rise.

Congratulations 

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