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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like Central Park will end up with slightly more snow than Boston this winter ( barely ).

 

Yeah near avg here. Nothing spread out and forgettable winter. 18-19 was more exciting than this one. At least Feb 2021 was a good month.

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Happy spring everyone. No robins on the lawn here but I did see a turkey vulture the other day.

I've still go some perma-pack in the shaded areas but sunny areas are bare. It happens that that the grass is in the shady areas so it'll be a while still before any lawn care is needed.

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16 minutes ago, monadnocks said:

Happy spring everyone. No robins on the lawn here but I did see a turkey vulture the other day.

I've still go some perma-pack in the shaded areas but sunny areas are bare. It happens that that the grass is in the shady areas so it'll be a while still before any lawn care is needed.

There are two turkey vultures that like to park themselves just outside the front door at the office building I work in. :lol:

 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah near avg here. Nothing spread out and forgettable winter. 18-19 was more exciting than this one. At least Feb 2021 was a good month.

This winter wasn’t anything special but it was way more exciting than the horrible 18-19 winter. This winter was average, 18-19 was well below with only 2 6+ storms and 1 12+ storm. That’s a ratter in my book. This winter at least in my area there were 2 12+ Storms, 3/4 6+ storms (I’m not entirely sure the October and Jan one were borderline, but The one in dec and 2 in feb were definitely 6+, with the last storm being borderline) in my area. Unlike that horrific winter this winter at least had a few smaller events on top of the couple of bigger ones (as is typical in moderate/strong la ninas) vs 2019 one bigger storm and one moderate one separated by 4 months, with not much in between. I would take this average winter again over that ratter winter and it’s not even close. We also had a much more favorable pattern this winter and if anything we underperformed the pattern with average snowfall. In my opinion 9/10 times this pattern would produce well above average snow in all of eastern mass. The 2019 pattern we never stood a chance with the storm track way to the west the whole year. 

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17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice trough in the east at the end of March.

Cold and dry on the GFS

I'm not insensitive to your particular interest area in following this/engagement ...etc, so this is just fwiw ... But, I would be careful using any GFS solution as a standard practice, for any range beyond ~ D4.  Particularly in spring...when the flow is concomitantly attempting to relax and elevate heights ...the GFS is unique UNqualified to get that memo... heh

The model maintains a pretty coherent N/stream bias - speed and dominance therein, ablates ridge signals too liberally ... as well, stretches trough into the x-coordinate ( w-e); and it is an error that I have noticed only gets worse the further out in time. 

It seems to have an issue with lowering heights too far N of the westerlies ...and then that means the gradient is overdone ... and the balanced wind ( we call those geostrophic wind fyi ) speed up accordingly. That creates a base-line biased feed-back on its self, such that it worsens farther out in the extended ranges.

That said,  I have personally been entertaining the notion of a cut-off/West Atlantic ..marginal type deeper solution potential around the 1st of April, anyway.

I also wonder if April is destined to be way above normal after that.  And if it doesn't happen...we may really have seen the last snow chance - ...I do this every year on a personal note, and fail ...I try to say when, "That!  that was the last snow I'll see ..." and I always have to have it dawn on me later on.  I didn't know that time to even ask if those squalls would be it last week -

We'll see

 

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26 minutes ago, George001 said:

This winter wasn’t anything special but it was way more exciting than the horrible 18-19 winter. This winter was average, 18-19 was well below with only 2 6+ storms and 1 12+ storm. That’s a ratter in my book. This winter at least in my area there were 2 12+ Storms, 3/4 6+ storms (I’m not entirely sure the October and Jan one were borderline, but The one in dec and 2 in feb were definitely 6+, with the last storm being borderline) in my area. Unlike that horrific winter this winter at least had a few smaller events on top of the couple of bigger ones (as is typical in moderate/strong la ninas) vs 2019 one bigger storm and one moderate one separated by 4 months, with not much in between. I would take this average winter again over that ratter winter and it’s not even close. We also had a much more favorable pattern this winter and if anything we underperformed the pattern with average snowfall. In my opinion 9/10 times this pattern would produce well above average snow in all of eastern mass. The 2019 pattern we never stood a chance with the storm track way to the west the whole year. 

I had more snow that winter. Every storm seemed to overperform here that winter and ended with a nearly 17” March bomb. 

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