weathafella Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Don’t forget that March storm that saw a flip to heavy snow and temperatures really plummeted. I was on my typical walk in those days up Corey Hill and I had the thought that I was putting my life in danger during legit blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 What a boring end. Talking about past years always signifies it’s done. Especially when Will goes OT in wx threads himself . 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Soon the annual metamorphosis will occur and Rev Kev will flip and join Dr. Dews to talk about TP sticking to fannies and encourage fear of droughts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: Soon the annual metamorphosis will occur and Rev Kev will flip and join Dr. Dews to talk about TP sticking to fannies and encourage fear of droughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 39 minutes ago, weathafella said: Don’t forget that March storm that saw a flip to heavy snow and temperatures really plummeted. I was on my typical walk in those days up Corey Hill and I had the thought that I was putting my life in danger during legit blizzard conditions. 3/8/05. We lost a massive tree during that on winter hill. Blown right over. It wasnt long after it changed to snow when that happened. My cruddy anemometer back then recorded like 63mph or something and it wasn’t even 10m. Prob more like 3m. I think the airport recorded something similar but I bet 10m up on our hill would have been 70+. We went from like 40 to 26 in a couple hours I think. True flash freeze event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 OT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a boring end. Talking about past years always signifies it’s done. Especially when Will goes OT in wx threads himself . Wait...I thought yesterday the -NAO was coming back and the deep pack would prevents 50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Wait...I thought yesterday the -NAO was coming back and the deep pack would prevents 50s? I saw most sites like BDL, ORH, TOL, GON stay in the 40’s today . Where is the NAO and snows you’re calling for? I don’t see evidence of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I saw most sites like BDL, ORH, TOL, GON stay in the 40’s today . Where is the NAO and snows you’re calling for? I don’t see evidence of that Right here. On 2/23/2021 at 7:16 AM, Damage In Tolland said: EPS had big changes overnight and has -NAO back for first week of Morch 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 The GEFS is looking dreadfully dry and boring. Same with the EPS to a lesser extent. What kind of upper level setups should I look for to see stormier patterns? Anything but a big ridge or a crushing PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2021 Author Share Posted February 25, 2021 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: Right here. He’s had a rough winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: Right here. Oh you mean one run two nights ago? Yeah.. it’s gone it seems . Post the 50+ club in N Hamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: He’s had a rough winter. I’d give my forecast a C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 34 minutes ago, Fozz said: The GEFS is looking dreadfully dry and boring. Same with the EPS to a lesser extent. What kind of upper level setups should I look for to see stormier patterns? Anything but a big ridge or a crushing PV? It’s a total snoozer. Sucks to keep wasting so many weeks of good climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 21 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It’s a total snoozer. Sucks to keep wasting so many weeks of good climo. If models have spent so many weeks giving false hope, then let’s hope they’re wrong again. March tends to surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I should be up in Jackman. Decent little squall came through here earlier. I really hope we get another real synoptic snowstorm before curtains on the winter. Next 10 days looks boring. Some model teases as usual but not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Decent little squall came through here earlier. I really hope we get another real synoptic snowstorm before curtains on the winter. Next 10 days looks boring. Some model teases as usual but not buying it. If i don't see another flake i will fall 27" below normal for the winter, Not making up that deficit in Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: If i don't see another flake i will fall 27" below normal for the winter, Not making up that deficit in Morch. So your currently at 27” below your normal full winter season average. With 3 more days of February to go and March still. You could come close to normal, if a big one materializes sometime in early to mid March?? There’s a shot anyway...not a big shot, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: So your currently at 27” below your normal full winter season average. With 3 more days of February to go and March still. You could come close to normal, if a big one materializes sometime in early to mid March?? There’s a shot anyway...not a big shot, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility either. Yes, I've been below avg every month so far, Closest one was Dec before the grinch, I don't see much on the horizon coming up for here, But i'll be heading north a few more trips. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So your currently at 27” below your normal full winter season average. With 3 more days of February to go and March still. You could come close to normal, if a big one materializes sometime in early to mid March?? There’s a shot anyway...not a big shot, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility either. He melted weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So your currently at 27” below your normal full winter season average. With 3 more days of February to go and March still. You could come close to normal, if a big one materializes sometime in early to mid March?? There’s a shot anyway...not a big shot, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility either. It could. We have seen several “big ones” dissolve into weak mush by the time they get to SNE. Been happening since Grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d give my forecast a C It seems to me you forecasted a ratter and a sub 35 inch snow total for you. Fail. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: 3/8/05. We lost a massive tree during that on winter hill. Blown right over. It wasnt long after it changed to snow when that happened. My cruddy anemometer back then recorded like 63mph or something and it wasn’t even 10m. Prob more like 3m. I think the airport recorded something similar but I bet 10m up on our hill would have been 70+. We went from like 40 to 26 in a couple hours I think. True flash freeze event. I sent my employees home as the changeover was occurring. It took one of them 7 hours to drive 25 miles. One of my favorite all-time events. A real Great Plains-style blizzard....4" of snow, plummeting temps, 50+ winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 It’s funny to see the posts about the end.....remember when I said after mid February it’s over......I was blasted for that but here we are....pack was decent past three weeks but really the season is a complete dud....somehow some way we need to steer around that grinch crap....if we could have held on to that pack after the December storm would have a really nice season....on to Morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Feb 2005, like 1996, was kind of a let down, though probably still managed above normal snow. December and April is what separated 1996 from 2005. Where I was we did ok in December. About 10 inches on Boxing Day per my recollection but there was a sizable cj component. April was better in 96 but if you’re not doing a 97 or 82 in April why bother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Is this just me being a weenie looking at the maps through snow goggles, or does the EPS actually look decent for the March 5th-8th timeframe for a storm potential? I may have given up on winter too soon, during that time frame on the EPS it shows a more amplified flow. It has a big ridge on the west coast instead of the east, and due to the amplified flow that doesn’t roll east and bring warm pacific air with it. Instead, as the EPS approaches the March 8th timeframe, the amplified flow allows cold air to filter into the eastern US straight from Canada, with the freezing line at the upper levels getting as far south as North Carolina. That’s not pacific air, that air is coming straight from the North Pole. While there will be a big warm up in early March with a ridge in the east and the polar vortex over the North Pole, the models are now breaking a piece of the polar vortex off which delivers a blast of cold air. Unlike last week where it looked like the vortex was going to sit in the North Pole for all of March, it looks like the polar vortex might cooperate after all. Yes, the EPS doesn’t actually show a storm during that timeframe, but it shows a great pattern that must be watched for a potential late season blizzard with possibly even more threats behind it if the pattern sets in before we warm up for good. This pattern really excites me, when I see pieces of the polar vortex breaking off and moving into eastern Canada like that instead of sitting at the North Pole, it makes me think cold air will not be a huge issue. When you combine this more favorable polar vortex development with a more cooperative pacific, allowing the flow to amplify and slow down, this indicates increased chances of a slow moving blizzard that undergoes cyclogenesis, fueled by the clash of the polar vortex induced cold with the warmer March waters in the gulf and off the southeast coast. Could this lead to Miller As track over us, crush more western areas with a massive blizzard while it rains in eastern mass? Yeah, ptype issues is definitely a risk, especially with the clash of Arctic and tropical air occurring as off the Carolinas. Cyclogenesis that occurs this early and far south while great for a monster sub 970 mb low also brings the risk of the low tucking in to much and raining over eastern Mass. At least the pattern is favorable, and compared to how things looked a week ago, that’s all I can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 26 minutes ago, ice1972 said: It’s funny to see the posts about the end.....remember when I said after mid February it’s over......I was blasted for that but here we are....pack was decent past three weeks but really the season is a complete dud....somehow some way we need to steer around that grinch crap....if we could have held on to that pack after the December storm would have a really nice season....on to Morch It’s understandable why you thought it was over, I did too, I even made a post ending winter. However the latest guidance is showing a pattern favorable for intense cyclogenesis starting as far south as the Carolina coast. With a more amplified flow, there is more room for the northern branch and the southern branch of the jet stream to phase. In the pattern the EPS is showing past March 5th, there isn’t energy crashing into the west coast flattening the flow, which would give the northern branch of the jet stream to dig farther south, phase with the southern branch, tilt negatively and come up the coast. When you get a pattern like that especially in March with the enhanced thermal gradient, watch out for extreme cyclogenesis (a good example of this is March 1993). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, George001 said: It’s understandable why you thought it was over, I did too, I even made a post ending winter. However the latest guidance is showing a pattern favorable for intense cyclogenesis starting as far south as the Carolina coast. With a more amplified flow, there is more room for the northern branch and the southern branch of the jet stream to phase. In the pattern the EPS is showing past March 5th, there isn’t energy crashing into the west coast flattening the flow, which would give the northern branch of the jet stream to dig farther south, phase with the southern branch, tilt negatively and come up the coast. When you get a pattern like that especially in March with the enhanced thermal gradient, watch out for extreme cyclogenesis (a good example of this is March 1993). Ugh.....I’d want that in December and January when the damage it can do can stick around....don’t get me wrong....a March 93 deal I’d welcome just only for the event itself....otherwise I have no time for storm whose damage will just melt off in 60 hours.....my dream winter is wire to wire pack from mid December to the end of February.....that’s me....that would truly be a winter if yore.....that’s what we want.....man that grinch this season hurt so bad....it was like the worst one ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 3 hours ago, weathafella said: It seems to me you forecasted a ratter and a sub 35 inch snow total for you. Fail. I think I'd give myself a solid B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 6 hours ago, TheBudMan said: Soon the annual metamorphosis will occur and Rev Kev will flip and join Dr. Dews to talk about TP sticking to fannies and encourage fear of droughts I'll vanish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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