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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def looks more like GFS/NAM

mm ...i might pull the trigger on a low confidence Watch and sort of bold/highlight it as likely to go down to Advisory pending more cycles.  OH wait heh...is this still 4th period even.

Actually don't do anything I guess for now accept model ogle

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22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Probably a noticeable difference between N VT and N NH though. 

Depends, north of the Whites probably skews much harder into nickel and dime but Phin does synoptic well.  Alex, Pittsburgh, CT Lakes etc is very heavily mesoscale climate oriented.

I guess years of JSpin explaining stuff makes me wonder about things like Phin sees 40” and 4” QPF like his neighbor since Feb 1st... is the experience different if it’s four distinct 1.0” QPF for 10” of snow type trackable storms... rather than small amounts every single day that add up to that same total.

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I think I need every bit of that 10" here in Ayer to end the season 'normal'  - or within reasonability of that distinction. 

I'd like that... so that a "normal" winter is officially "not good enough" for those in the area that have turned this pass-time into a life-defining codependency complex  lol

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Depends, north of the Whites probably skews much harder into nickel and dime but Phin does synoptic well.  Alex, Pittsburgh, CT Lakes etc is very heavily mesoscale climate oriented.

I guess years of JSpin explaining stuff makes me wonder about things like Phin sees 40” and 4” QPF like his neighbor since Feb 1st... is the experience different if it’s four distinct 1.0” QPF for 10” of snow type trackable storms... rather than small amounts every single day that add up to that same total.

Greedy here I want both from Dec 1st to March 21st. As long as it doesn't melt or sublimate 

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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think I need every bit of that 10" here in Ayer to end the season 'normal'  - or within reasonability of that distinction. 

I'd like that... so that a "normal" winter is officially "not good enough" for those in the area that have turned this pass-time into a life-defining codependency complex  lol

The sucky January made it worse even though the records will show it was average.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We did try and try and try to tell them.

Yes we did. Dewsh and DIT going down in flames for the winter is over calls.  Yesterday frigid with wind. Today Raw cloudy and cold, plowable snow Thursday night/Friday.  So much for the seasonably mild and snow over BS.  

Some Bad calls by them. 
 

 

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm tellin' ya man... just a matter of time and we'll get a 70 F legit ambient temperature over a snow pack -

 

It's happened here in 2001, 08, 12 and 17, all but 2012 in April.   4/24/01 needed to reach 80 to wipe out the final 4" of pack that spring.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Yes we did. Dewsh and DIT going down in flames for the winter is over calls.  Yesterday frigid with wind. Today Raw cloudy and cold, plowable snow Thursday night/Friday.  So much for the seasonably mild and snow over BS.  
 

 

LOL it’s all good, but the EPs had this signal for a long time. Even when the euro op was a cutter it showed it under SNE. We’ll see what happened because this will be tough to pin down,  but hopefully at least an advisory event for many.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

LOL it’s all good, but the EPs had this signal for a long time. Even when the euro op was a cutter it showed it under SNE. We’ll see what happened because this will be tough to pin down,  but hopefully at least an advisory event for many.

Of course it’s all good..but gotta call em on it when they were so sure everything was spring time and flowers. 

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Based on what I see on the models today they are close but not quite there when it comes to phasing. This could very well phase and produce a monster ocean low if it keeps trending, but there isn’t a whole lot of time. Instead it looks like the streams will phase a little bit over western NY (a bit better than yesterday’s models having the northern steam diving into central NY, which would allow the low to strengthen a little more). The setup is quite marginal with there not being a strong cold air mass in place, which explains why the models have the storm starting as rain. As it is right now, I’m not really buying the 6-12 snow maps as the low is not strong enough to create its enough cold air to dynamically cool the atmosphere and increase the snow ratios, so the 6-12 inch snow maps would translate to 2-4 inches of wet snow. If we can get that northern stream to dive 200 miles west however it’s a whole nother story.

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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes we did. Dewsh and DIT going down in flames for the winter is over calls.  Yesterday frigid with wind. Today Raw cloudy and cold, plowable snow Thursday night/Friday.  So much for the seasonably mild and snow over BS.  

Some Bad calls by them. 
 

 

we have only been discussing this upcoming mix event for 8 days. 

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