WinterWolf Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Until we have drenching rain Thursday. Lol what a joke Absolutely. What a bunch of drama about nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: We probably are due for a few drier years. We've had a lot of wet years recently. Like snowfall, time to regress. It all evens out...not concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Only way I could continue, is if I know I would win. Because then, I can just say I shat on all the other runners in this race. Would you shower before they place the medal over your neck or stand on the podium with shat dripping down your legs for the entire world to see? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It all evens out...not concerned. Should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: Reveal hidden contents I’ve seen that happen to people during my marathons . Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Boy what are the GFS family trying to do end of the month. EPS has that signal as well. Interesting Warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve seen that happen to people during my marathons . Brutal probably not worth it if the end result is leg dribble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve seen that happen to people during my marathons . Brutal Why eat a beef burrito from taco bell right before a marathon though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I was thinking about that during my run this morning dressed in 3 layers and full winter gear. The last of the cold mornings. The cold is over. This year you can say that with confidence . Time to move on you actually run in this shit ? - I doff my cap ... I hate it! I hate running in anything less than about 55 ... tho negotiable if sunny a little. 40s or less I'm not fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 3 hours ago, Lava Rock said: When's the last time that happened Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 2010. But nobody got much that month after a bit on the 1st, leftover from the late Feb thing. Would be a fitting end to calendar winter if SNE got advisory-plus snows while we enjoyed partly cloudy. One good thing about a dry spring this year - would be 2 in a row and might knock back the needlecast fungi on white pine enough for the damaged trees to recover. Unfortunately I don't think it will hurt the ticks at all, maybe the opposite as dry conditions can make for high reproduction of small rodents. Hit -1 this morning, last subzero of the season, probably last sub-10 as well. Already into the 20s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: We probably are due for a few drier years. We've had a lot of wet years recently. Like snowfall, time to regress. I'm sure you've/we've all heard this at one point or the other ...so to the straw man in the room, a changing climate means that kind of 'probability' inference is shakier. The total systemic forces that gave rise to whatever happened 50 years ago ...are not the same now. I think this is effecting everything actually ...from NAO correlating patterns to PNA modes...to longer termed seasonal hemispheres like ENSO ..all of them. 'A,' used to -->X ... Now? A --> (X'*B squared)/ pi lol, just sayn' We can't regress to those numbers if the forcing is changed - that's not very good "environmental math" ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you actually run in this shit ? - I doff my cap ... I hate it! I hate running in anything less than about 55 ... tho negotiable if sunny a little. 40s or less I'm not fan. He has thousands of beer calories to burn off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 53 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It all evens out...not concerned. I can do a hot and dry summer again. Nothing worse than summer weekend washouts like 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I can do a hot and dry summer again. Nothing worse than summer weekend washouts like 2018. Summer of 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Summer of 2009 this. that is actually the last summer I remember in awhile where it rained almost daily till July. I really hope it's not a dry spring, especially if we're already starting on the dry side. I've got second stage lawn plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Sunday certainly looks relatively mild on the operation ( and EPS mean for that matter) Euro cluster... By 00z Monday (8 pm Sun evening..), 850s mb have ballooned the 0 C, N and E of NE. In fact, it looks like the day starts out around -1 of D.E.M. to +2 over NYC...and by that latter hour it is +4 or 5 up there and +6 or +7, NYC... The high pressure (sfc) associated with the modest seasonal ridge ...is actually starting out the day W but slips to a position S of LI by late ... but close enough by that we are separated from the gradient - this limits mixing. So the Euro suggests the 850 mb warms; I'm not sure if the above limits on mixing means the BL will extend to the 850 mb sigma level ( altitude..). It may not matter as much as that would in January... I mean, sometimes the sun being so sloped and weak in the dish pan of the solar nadir ...we warm up at 850 and it's stays chilly at the surface when this sort of DVM/ capping take place. But I'm not certain zippo RH at any standard sigma level ( 300, 500, 700, ...etc), implies pristine swept clean sky .. equinox + 1 sun ... Might be a nerd's paradise to monitor that. Either way, that's high intensity nape... even if it stays less than the 850 mb adiabat, with very light wind and that very warm sun the feel will faux it's way into honorable mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you actually run in this shit ? - I doff my cap ... I hate it! I hate running in anything less than about 55 ... tho negotiable if sunny a little. 40s or less I'm not fan. 4 days a week without fail . Any weather except lightning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Summer of 2009 Summer of 69? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Actually MEX ... has 55+ at FIT, BED, and ASH on Thursday... Then, we snow Friday morning - classic spring bs... Then it's 74 Monday afternoon... of course. Curious, are the Euro operational 2-meter T products at Pivotal source "raw" machine guidance, or are they sent through a MOS milling before rendered out to those graphics? I'm asking because ... the MEX MOS for this next Mon/Tues are 62 ... which is 14 over climate in a product that is heavier weighted toward climate - specifically the farther out in time. Which means that the signal has to be pretty impressive to warm/pull that guidance that far about 48 or 50. Yet, the Euro numbers are actually slightly cooler, despite having a less contaminated, open heating look in the synoptic layout provided by the operational and the EPS... Seems odd... If these latter are perhaps machine milled by climate normalizing like the MEX, it may explain why they are not 72 in those environments, Mon and Tue afternoons. By then, ..them two days are definitely mixed out and have BL at least to 875 mb if not 850, so the adiabats should be realized and the Euro looks too cool at 67 for HFD Monday, with +8 at 850 and solid W, dry continental flow through a high sun irradiance... man, BDL will be 77 probably... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Oh,... Euro has a 300 mb cloud problem - maybe that's part of it...didn't see that level on Monday ... but it's bone dry 500, 700 --> surface on west wind, through +7 c 850s so... if that 300 mb ceiling proves fake ...that 2-meter is going to be warmer than mid 60s throughout the SNE region... I'm not sure what the verification scores are at tedious sigma levels, tho.. Notice also it still frosts Sunday night - ... good mapling - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 NAM gone wild N of the pike for late Thursday night/early Friday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 So.. for me, the nice take away on Thursday night into early Friday is the rain. It would be nice to put another 1.25" in the basin tills ... I'm not sure specifically what is offered here.. It may be .7" et... As far as snow...yeeeah. It's in there. I think the flash freeze is the interesting aspect, though.. At least, if we clear Friday afternoon and sun penetrates to Earth ...even if the temp holds around freezing at least the roads won't be too bad. As far as snow itself... that looks to me like an ANA lag back with cold wedging underneath doing the transition for this thing, more so than cyclonic dynamical feedbacks. Those tend to be over modeled. I won't call that a "red flag" but I'd cautionary yellow - I have seen countless cold insert end up with an evaporational slant deformation and steady on rad goes to virga. I think the critical aspect will be how soon does the advection aloft cut off ... the N/stream was hinting at more phasing yesterday, and we saw immediate positive returns in QPF ... but ultimately, the phasing is minimal and I don't personally see how it is going to get to be more, given to the surrounding hemisphere. It seems it may have maxed in guidance when taking that into consideration. The N/stream ultimately partially phases while the rest of the trough mass smears E and pancakes /cuts of the elevate advection and that is racing the wedge drying underneath. That's really taking a needle thread to an excruciatingly discrete level there... It may be a good system for meso modeling ...by virtue of their grid, they may have a better handling on timing the 1300 meter thickness collapse underneath that lag back seeding aloft - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: NAM gone wild N of the pike for late Thursday night/early Friday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2021 Author Share Posted March 16, 2021 Let’s do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm sure you've/we've all heard this at one point or the other ...so to the straw man in the room, a changing climate means that kind of 'probability' inference is shakier. The total systemic forces that gave rise to whatever happened 50 years ago ...are not the same now. I think this is effecting everything actually ...from NAO correlating patterns to PNA modes...to longer termed seasonal hemispheres like ENSO ..all of them. 'A,' used to -->X ... Now? A --> (X'*B squared)/ pi lol, just sayn' We can't regress to those numbers if the forcing is changed - that's not very good "environmental math" ... Yea, I don't think its fair to expect warmer outcomes, and not expect wetter outcomes moving forward. If you expect the next decade to regress drier, then you need to expect it to be colder, too, which no one does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Model trends are concerning for those of us who want to move on. We might be done with winter but winter ain't done with us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2021 Author Share Posted March 16, 2021 That’s a nasty fronto band in SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 What are the chances the heavier qpf shifts south of the region leaving us with just light rain/ snow? Is that more likely than a north shift? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Soaka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 I just saw the NAM... It's a needle threader incarnate! caution on being optimistic or readily favoring that scenario because the NAM when it comes into the 60 to 84 hour ranges has a tendency to be NW ... owing to a tendency to be slightly too amplified - it's almost like what the global numerical ( Euro/GFS/GGEM) do at D7-10 , where they first scope these system in their distance frames like the moon coming over the eastern horizon - magnified and scary huge... lol. The NAM seems to do something similar then damps a bit coming into 48 < -- so forth. That is a narrow latitude there to begin with, so a 50 mile S correction of axis' and that rt 2 ends up down in CT... etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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