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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What was that white stuff falling from the sky yesterday and the -10F wind chills this morning?  

Warm and moist!

it has never once snowed in the Spring. In other news, this weekend is looking quite seasonably special for Spring enthusiasts after the fleeting cool shot

Saturday and Sunday...

The quick drop in temperatures will be short lived as temperatures
begin to moderate almost immediately for the weekend under building
high pressure. This will bring dry, sunny skies and seasonable
temperatures.

 

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There's nuanced aspects to the 00z that make me wonder if yesterdays utopian appeal from mid weekend into mid next week ... is getting cleverly schemed out in the model's war-room against fun and happiness of humanity - lol..

I mean, there was tendency to put more emphasis on that 'pinch-low' down there as the ridge lobe (EPS ...etc..) is slabbing over top from D6 to 10 on this run.  The prior trend was much more confidence instilling.  If that gets just a little stronger and ends up N 5 deg latitude... doesn't matter what happens aloft.  Leave NE and don't come back until June -

That smacks somewhat of that continental tucking pattern I was euphemistically referring to last year - it's when the flow and ridge aspect folds over at higher latitudes and this creates weakness along the San Francisco to VA, Beach ~ latitudes in the means. Think Kelvin-Hemholtz ( https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Kelvin-helmholtz_billows) tendency: it may not be readily observed but it's forcing similarly.

I've noticed more and more ... in warm seasons, we are setting up tendencies for SE flow in to the mid Atl as a result ...  Surface ridging sliding E at higher in latitude and exiting more E of CC as opposed to settling S toward Bermuda. This is because those nodal ridge fold- overs represent pockets of synoptic DVM/ confluence and so sfc high pressures are formulating concomitantly.  So, in the means you end up with displacing the mean SW heat trajectories farther NW..  The thing is... this means more DP is showing up in the averages from SNE and S, which keeps the nocturnal temp elevated, but knocks say the cap off the higher heat days.  To get the 95 + big heat at our latitude, you really want the DP in the 63 range with an EML/ 850 kinetic layer.. You don't want 70+ DPs on a SSW flow...  No one notices that... 101/64 is pig fart hot, and so is 93/76 ...blah blah

 

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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you think it’s gonna snow because the FV3 says so in a super marginal airmass.. I don’t know what to tell you. We tried to tell em.. winters over . Will they listen or will they buy heavy snow Thursday night?

LOL enjoy slush 

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1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

Fwiw necn just mentioned an inch or two is possible Thursday into Friday.  Of course they didnt mention if that was on pavement or the mulch beds. This looks like a stat padder to me with not much road impact.

Well temperatures are below freezing for the second half of the event.  Also, it occurs largely at night.

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well temperatures are below freezing for the second half of the event.  Also, it occurs largely at night.

True but road temps around here are a bit harder to drop. If they drop well below freezing tjan that changes things but the air mass before this is not that cold.

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46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you think it’s gonna snow because the FV3 says so in a super marginal airmass.. I don’t know what to tell you. We tried to tell em.. winters over . Will they listen or will they buy heavy snow Thursday night?

I won't be buying it at all it will be coming down for free!!! :snowing:

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