March 2021 Weather Discussion

[radarman]

This was March 7 2015 and we didn't have nearly the snow that E Mass did... good preservation though

[40/70 Benchmark]

1995-1996 remains number one IMBY because it was more equally distributed throughout the season....as epic as that 45 day period was, punting through mid January and then all of March was fatal in that regard.

I would still take the epic 45 days over the record, though.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, BrianW said:

You ever do one of those dog DNA test?  I ordered a wisdom panel dna kit and just got it yesterday. Will be cool to see what our rescue is. The vet thinks he is Dachshund and Chihuahua. 

Yea we did all 8 dogs. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996 remains number one IMBY because it was more equally distributed throughout the season....as epic as that 45 day period was, punting through mid January and then all of March was fatal in that regard.

I would still take the epic 45 days over the record, though.

Too many thaws in 95 96 and although the April snow was cool it was gone the next day.  No punting March here in 15

[radarman]

58 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well if the stupide BOX "Past Storm Database" wasn't such a POS I could find out how much actually fell.  I recall multiple 6"+ events plus one bigger one over a foot.

I agree it has been frustrating, but fortunately the IA state site has everything backed up... this is all the BOX text products (including PNS) from March 2015

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?source=BOX&year=2015&month=3&day=1&drange=yes&year2=2015&month2=3&day2=31&view=grid&order=asc

 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, radarman said:

I agree it has been frustrating, but fortunately the IA state site has everything backed up... this is all the BOX text products (including PNS) from March 2015

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?source=BOX&year=2015&month=3&day=1&drange=yes&year2=2015&month2=2&day2=31&view=grid&order=asc

 

Box is fixing it as well

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, BrianW said:

You ever do one of those dog DNA test?  I ordered a wisdom panel dna kit and just got it yesterday. Will be cool to see what our rescue is. The vet thinks he is Dachshund and Chihuahua. 

I did one for my rescue dog, I forget what they thought she was but they weren't even close, came back Rhodesian Ridgeback and Boston Terrier, she has the coat of a Boston and the body of the Rhodesian.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996 remains number one IMBY because it was more equally distributed throughout the season....as epic as that 45 day period was, punting through mid January and then all of March was fatal in that regard.

I would still take the epic 45 days over the record, though.

Yeah ...these are purely subjective takes on/comparison of them two years...

So for what it's worth I think of Feb 2015 as an awe-inspiring pattern ....

I think of a 1995-1996 as an awe-inspiring season ...

Concomitant with both - in an attempt to offer some convincing logic to one's case:

2015 - the pattern was more locally realized.   Not to understate/value... many of those locales pulled off almost scary monthly totals.   It seemed also the heavy hitter cold was E of ORD ... 

1995-1996 - contrasting, the season seems to have been a more ubiquitously shared experience ... really that's a broader inundation achievement than the 2015 year, which seemed to really focus for an intra-seasonal pattern gestation and focus in the E OV/New England, and probably was nucleus in SNE proper - though don't quote me.   Another difference is that 1995-1996 did that three week Rossby rollout and repositioned a new L/W more in the Lakes and brought winter out that way tho not nearly as prolific ... Still, it was a spatially bigger layout in that sense, where S of Alaska to S of Greenland sloshed and a bigger zone of impact went along with.  Planetary winter vs -

So I dunno ..take one's pick.  From inside a living room, you wouldn't know.  It only matters to use dweebs -

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Too many thaws in 95 96 and although the April snow was cool it was gone the next day.  No punting March here in 15

That period from around Thanksgiving through mid January was about as solid as you will ever get that time of year....uninterrupted cold and snow. The big thaw at the end of it sucked, yes.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That period from around Thanksgiving through mid January was about as solid as you will ever get that time of year....uninterrupted cold and snow. The big thaw at the end of it sucked, yes.

Epic epic winter my first 100 incher

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...these are purely subjective takes on/comparison of them two years...

So for what it's worth I think of Feb 2015 as an awe-inspiring pattern ....

I think of a 1995-1996 as an awe-inspiring season ...

Concomitant with both - in an attempt to offer some convincing logic to one's case:

2015 - the pattern was more locally realized.   Not to understate/value... many of those locales pulled off almost scary monthly totals.   It seemed also the heavy hitter cold was E of ORD ... 

1995-1996 - contrasting, the season seems to have been a more ubiquitously shared experience ... really that's a broader inundation achievement than the 2015 year, which seemed to really focus for an intra-seasonal pattern gestation and focus in the E OV/New England, and probably was nucleus in SNE proper - though don't quote me.   Another difference is that 1995-1996 did that three week Rossby rollout and repositioned a new L/W more in the Lakes and brought winter out that way tho not nearly as prolific ... Still, it was a spatially bigger layout in that sense, where S of Alaska to S of Greenland sloshed and a bigger zone of impact went along with.  Planetary winter vs -

So I dunno ..take one's pick.  From inside a living room, you wouldn't know.  It only matters to use dweebs -

Agree.

[Ginx snewx]

Interesting read from young Jack Sillin the rising someday met star ala Sammy Eddie Jake Ryan Daniel et al

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Interesting read from young Jack Sillin the rising someday met star ala Sammy Eddie Jake Ryan Daniel et al

Great AFD.

[Snowcrazed71]

Interesting read regarding mid week next weeks storm....

 

Wednesday morning irritant: what is the deal with the ECMWF predicting a major snowstorm in the Northeast March 3-4?

I suspect that the European model suite may be correct. The ensemble members concur with the operational version in creating an interaction between a very moist subtropical jet stream impulse (west of Baja California on the water vapor image) with a shortwave riding along the rim of an Arctic air mass in Canada. Climatology with Miller B type systems (starting near the Virginia Capes) favors a slightly more oceanward track scenario. That could translate to a lot of snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

Do not be swayed by the model warm biases seen in the 0z runs. Low atmospheric thicknesses across Canada (along with the currently entrenched surface cold dome) are telling me to take this situation seriously. It is nothing like the minor mixed precipitation event tomorrow night over extreme N TX, OK, and AR. That feature is the forerunner impulse, setting up a path and a likely heavy rain/thunderstorm situation from parts of East Texas through the Mid-South.

Keep watching the next few sets of numerical model runs, folks. This could get very interesting...... Larry Cosgrove

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Interesting read regarding mid week next weeks storm....

 

Wednesday morning irritant: what is the deal with the ECMWF predicting a major snowstorm in the Northeast March 3-4?

I suspect that the European model suite may be correct. The ensemble members concur with the operational version in creating an interaction between a very moist subtropical jet stream impulse (west of Baja California on the water vapor image) with a shortwave riding along the rim of an Arctic air mass in Canada. Climatology with Miller B type systems (starting near the Virginia Capes) favors a slightly more oceanward track scenario. That could translate to a lot of snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

Do not be swayed by the model warm biases seen in the 0z runs. Low atmospheric thicknesses across Canada (along with the currently entrenched surface cold dome) are telling me to take this situation seriously. It is nothing like the minor mixed precipitation event tomorrow night over extreme N TX, OK, and AR. That feature is the forerunner impulse, setting up a path and a likely heavy rain/thunderstorm situation from parts of East Texas through the Mid-South.

Keep watching the next few sets of numerical model runs, folks. This could get very interesting...... Larry Cosgrove

He has had a banner of a season....best winter forecast that I have seen this year.

[Ginx snewx]

This pretty cool speaking of 2015

 

[donsutherland1]

26 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Interesting read regarding mid week next weeks storm....

 

Wednesday morning irritant: what is the deal with the ECMWF predicting a major snowstorm in the Northeast March 3-4?

I suspect that the European model suite may be correct. The ensemble members concur with the operational version in creating an interaction between a very moist subtropical jet stream impulse (west of Baja California on the water vapor image) with a shortwave riding along the rim of an Arctic air mass in Canada. Climatology with Miller B type systems (starting near the Virginia Capes) favors a slightly more oceanward track scenario. That could translate to a lot of snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

Do not be swayed by the model warm biases seen in the 0z runs. Low atmospheric thicknesses across Canada (along with the currently entrenched surface cold dome) are telling me to take this situation seriously. It is nothing like the minor mixed precipitation event tomorrow night over extreme N TX, OK, and AR. That feature is the forerunner impulse, setting up a path and a likely heavy rain/thunderstorm situation from parts of East Texas through the Mid-South.

Keep watching the next few sets of numerical model runs, folks. This could get very interesting...... Larry Cosgrove

Shortening wave lengths create possibilities even within a generally milder regime.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He has had a banner of a season....best winter forecast that I have seen this year.

"..predicting a major snowstorm in the Northeast March 3-4? "

That appears to be a "somewhat" inflated impression of what the 00z operational Euro really carries up into the Northeast with regards to 'snowstorm'.

Stricter interpretation of the surface/ sensible evolution is wet snow and cat paws down near NYC ... with cold quick moving rain event around a zygote coastal low for everyone S of that... As the system then enters a bombogenesis curve of intensification out there as a low that move SE CT to Logan transit ...there is a blossoming MAUL/ converting to CCB mechanical look/transition, but that ends up more CNE and points N... .Impressive bombing rate of the low though as it ends up 972 leaving the GOM... 

But beyond that.. yeah, there could certainly be something in there and the above is just what I'm seeing of that one Euro run - not saying to ignore

Euro beyond D5 with ampltiude though - who whoulda thunk ...

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Shortening wave lengths create possibilities even within a generally milder regime.

True, but this is appears to be a R-wave anchored in the Euro - makes me suspicious that its typical conservation ( overly so...) of curved trajectories that model seems to collapse toward beyond D5 ...

We'll see -

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"..predicting a major snowstorm in the Northeast March 3-4? "

That appears to be a "somewhat" inflated impression of what the 00z operational Euro really carries up into the Northeast with regards to 'snowstorm'.

Stricter interpretation of the surface/ sensible evolution is wet snow and cat paws down near NYC ... with cold quick moving rain event around a zygote coastal low for everyone S of that... As the system then enters a bombogenesis curve of intensification out there as a low that move SE CT to Logan transit ...there is a blossoming MAUL/ converting to CCB mechanical look/transition, but that ends up more CNE and points N... .Impressive bombing rate of the low though as it ends up 972 leaving the GOM... 

But beyond that.. yeah, there could certainly be something in there and the above is just what I'm seeing of that one Euro run -

Euro beyond D5 with ampltiude though - who whoulda thunk ...

I don't think so....it depicts a major snow storm in the northeast, regardless of whether that particular OP rendition snows on I 95 or not.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, White Rain said:

March 4th, 2015

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996 remains number one IMBY because it was more equally distributed throughout the season....as epic as that 45 day period was, punting through mid January and then all of March was fatal in that regard.

I would still take the epic 45 days over the record, though.

I agree with you regarding 95-96, included 2 major snowstorms in April. The Sox home opener was snowed out that April. And the opener was nearly snowed out a 2nd time. The snow started shortly after the game. 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think so....it depicts a major snow storm in the northeast, regardless of whether that particular OP rendition snows on I 95 or not.

Fair 'nough -   there is a NE.  and there is a snow storm for at least some regions of CNE/NNE ...

that makes it correct but...   I suppose it is up to the reader not to be persuaded by "northeast" - when knowing full well that ignites a lot more regional expectations

If it were me, I would have qualified that differently - just sayn'  lol

[CoastalWx]

95-96 is best for winter longevity. But for high impact insanity, I don't think anything will beat those 6 weeks in 2015. 

[A Moonlit Sky]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

He will sit for a half hour in the snow. Will lay in the snow chewing bones while it is dumping. Half Husky half St Bernard so snow is in his blood.

My childhood dog was a rescue and a mixed-breed. He was half-husky--we didn't know the other half. He'd go out in snow storms and refuse to come in. He'd just go out, dig a little snow fort, and sit there for hours. Crazy guy lived 21 years, so maybe he was on to something.

[CoastalWx]

I spy, some Scooter Highs. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I did one for my rescue dog, I forget what they thought she was but they weren't even close, came back Rhodesian Ridgeback and Boston Terrier, she has the coat of a Boston and the body of the Rhodesian.

We did it for our rescue thru Maine Lab Rescue in 2017.  Her appearance is all/most yellow Lab, has the webbed feet, short somewhat coarse coat (less inner hair than the purebred black Lab we enjoyed 2003-16) and general body form of a Lab.  She also has the pink nose and white blaze on the back of her neck that describes a "Dudley Lab".  However, the DNA results  had her with 1/8 each of 4 different breeds, Lab being one but another was Corgi(?) and while I don't recall the other 2, I do remember they were nothing like a Lab.  The other 1/2 was listed as "mixed", so we learned essentially nothing.
Despite the Lab appearance she doesn't particularly like water (Abby the black Lab was unable to walk past it without a wallow - at any temp) and "retriever" is not part of her character.  However, the Lab personality is all there, enthusiasm, friendliness, tolerant of kids, cats and most everything else.

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996 remains number one IMBY because it was more equally distributed throughout the season....as epic as that 45 day period was, punting through mid January and then all of March was fatal in that regard.

I would still take the epic 45 days over the record, though.

That’s kind of what made 2004-05 so great.  Every month had above normal snow with good events in November and December, the epic snows of late January which kept on giving.  Not to mention the widespread huge event in January of 2005.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

That’s kind of what made 2004-05 so great.  Every month had above normal snow with good events in November and December, the epic snows of late January which kept on giving.  Not to mention the widespread huge event in January of 2005.

Yeah that is true too. 

[MJO812]