March 2021 Weather Discussion

[Heisy]

Maybe I take a quick flight to Malone NY or somewhere around there for this next finale event. Wonder if there’s an outside shot at 2 feet somewhere. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

As much as the December storm was fun, I feel like the only thing memorable from this winter will be 10/30 snow.  I can’t shake the stanky funk of the Grinch Storm.  Ruined 12/17 snow. 

It also ruined the Dec 6 snow. We had 6-7 “ of paste and it stayed OTG right up to the Dec 17th storm. Almost all Dec was deep winter here. And it vanished faster than Ray from the bar at the BWI wx conference 

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Maybe I take a quick flight to Malone NY or somewhere around there for this next finale event. Wonder if there’s an outside shot at 2 feet somewhere. 

That one seems even more up in the air than usual. I wouldn't make any firm plans. Models have been shifting around a lot.

[CoastalWx]

11 years ago, the Sultan of Sandbags was born. Fighting for the rights of the oppressed and unheard voices of SW RI citizens, he made sure their voices were heard. “Remember the Pawcatuck” was the crying chant and the NWS now has recognized the river into its grids for flood warnings. A true hero for the 10 people that live in its watershed. 

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

11 years ago, the Sultan of Sandbags was born. Fighting for the rights of the oppressed and unheard voices of SW RI citizens, he made sure their voices were heard. “Remember the Pawcatuck” was the crying chant and the NWS now has recognized the river into its grids for flood warnings. A true hero for the 10 people that live in its watershed. 

Better than a suburban strip mall town.

• 24 miles of ‘wild’ river segments – the second most ‘wild’ miles of any Partnership Wild and Scenic River System in the US
• The longest Wild and Scenic River System in New England with 110 miles
• 87% of the land is undeveloped or in agriculture and about 75% is forested land
• 75% of all animal species found in RI occur within this watershed
• 70% of globally rare and 63% of RI’s rare species and natural community occurrences are found within this watershed
• The darkest sky region between Washington DC and Boston

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

11 years ago, the Sultan of Sandbags was born. Fighting for the rights of the oppressed and unheard voices of SW RI citizens, he made sure their voices were heard. “Remember the Pawcatuck” was the crying chant and the NWS now has recognized the river into its grids for flood warnings. A true hero for the 10 people that live in its watershed. 

Not sure if anyone is familiar with Taunton high school, but the practice football fields and track throwers area were completely underwater for weeks from the Taunton River flooding. Water must have reached 6 feet high in the disc cage at its peak... we couldn’t practice for a long time.

What is now the brand new turf baseball field also was underwater. Hope that doesn’t happen again.

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Maybe I take a quick flight to Malone NY or somewhere around there for this next finale event. Wonder if there’s an outside shot at 2 feet somewhere. 

Look forward to your report.... Post Malone

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Better than a suburban strip mall town.

• 24 miles of ‘wild’ river segments – the second most ‘wild’ miles of any Partnership Wild and Scenic River System in the US
• The longest Wild and Scenic River System in New England with 110 miles
• 87% of the land is undeveloped or in agriculture and about 75% is forested land
• 75% of all animal species found in RI occur within this watershed
• 70% of globally rare and 63% of RI’s rare species and natural community occurrences are found within this watershed
• The darkest sky region between Washington DC and Boston

That's a cool list, also surprising considering the rivers in NW Maine - guess none other than the Allagash were nominated for such designations.  Also surprised that someplace in the Jersey pine barrens wasn't the darkest sky region.

[dendrite]

While we're talking rivers Franklin was recently given funding for development of New England's first whitewater park...just a bit down the road from me on the Winni River.

https://www.millcitypark.com/

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

While we're talking rivers Franklin was recently given funding for development of New England's first whitewater park...just a bit down the road from me on the Winni River.

https://www.millcitypark.com/

That's great! Something fun to do nearby. 

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's great! Something fun to do nearby. 

Hopefully it can help revitalize the city a bit. Push some of the addicts out to Rochester.

[weathafella]

Lol at the guy in a suit at touting a water park....

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Lol at the guy in a suit at touting a water park....

On a tangent... A whitewater park is different than a water park... not sure the plans in Franklin but it’s usually utilized by kayakers and some surfers primarily.

They alter the River and build in rapids and drops, with viewing spots alongside it usually.

Whitewater parks are becoming more popular to give kayakers a place to play in more urban areas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

March was pretty well forecast....I was all over the blocking head fake from the composite, which I fell for last year. Not this year....I knew it would hold off until April.

March 2021 Review

Teleconnections

Following the deviation from the forecast in February, owed to the mid winter Sudden Stratospheric Warming protracting the blocking from the first half of the season, March has gone essentially according to plan. Any residual high latitude blocking relinquished its grip by mid February, paving the way for a very benign and unremarkable weather pattern across the region. The supposition from the winter outlook was that the reemergence of blocking during the month of March, which was implied by the forecast composite, would materialize more slowly than forecast and likely be delayed until April, much like last season. This assertion was based on both the +QBO, as well as the proclivity for moderate or stronger la nina events to truncate the winter season.

This forecast assertion as proved correct, as the polar domain remain relatively hostile to sustained winter weather for the vast majority of the month. 

 

 

As evidenced in the annotation above, some degree of blocking does look to reestablish itself during the month of April. This likely would have happened sooner had the la nina remained weaker, and/or the QBO were less resistant to high latitude blocking. Another implication of la nina remaining at moderate intensity into March is that the RNA pattern did not relinquish its grip as much as it could have if the cool ENSO event had either remained weak, or weakened at a faster rate.

 

Although the largely hostile polar domain and the lingering la nina did lead to relatively mild and quiet month of March with a great dearth of snowfall, it was not exotically warm in the mean, given that Aleutian ridge did indeed extend more poleward this month, as forecast.

 

Composite Verification

Here is the H5 composite for the month of March 2021:

 

 

Actual March 2021 H5 Composite

 

Note that while lower heights were prevalent both across the higher latitudes, as well as the western CONUS,  the Aleutian ridge did extend more to the NW and poleward, as forecast.

 

 

Eastern Mass Weather March 2021 Forecast H5 Composite

 

This acted to partially negate the modifying influence of the lower heights across higher latitudes and the the western US, which resulted in approximately a +1F monthly departure from the mean across the region.

Actual March 2021 Temp Anomalies

 

This was near the higher end of the forecast range for near normal monthly departures.

 

 

 

Eastern Mass Weather Forecast March 2021 Temp Departures

 

Finally, the month features below average precipitation, which worked in concert with the slightly above average temps to leave the region essentially void of monthly snowfall.

 

Actual March 2021 Precip Anomalies

 

These dry conditions were also congruent with the forecast expectations from last November for month of March.

 

Eastern Mass Weather March 2021 Forecast Precip Anomalies

 

 

 

The complete forecast review for the entirety of the winter 2020-2021 season will be issued in May.

 

[rimetree]

Steined