March 2021 Weather Discussion

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Pop, locking, and dropping here. I have stuff emerge with temps in the 20s all the time. Just needs sun during the day.

Pics

[toller65]

Agreed, and the ice went out without needing the CG icebreaker this year.  I mentioned 2/2/76 because southerly winds that day gusted 100+ in Penobscot Bay, pushing water north such that it rose 15' in 15 minutes at BGR, with water 10-12' deep in the Kenduskeag Plaza parking lots.  I've never read how far above MHW that was, but surely more than 10'.  Kennebec's geography would limit such a surge.
Edit:  59/19 yesterday, only dropped the depth 1" (to 11") thanks to the low start and glacial pack.  This AM was slightly cooler than yesterday's, with a >40° climb upcoming.  Today will make 15 sunny days this month, most ever for March and only one day from the most for any month here.  Let the sap gush.

https://www.weather.gov/car/BangorHistoricFlood
https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1087/report.pdf

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

Trees are starting to budd here which is kind of early but i'm not surprised.

[tamarack]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In that picture for sure.
 

But Katahdin is a monster too for the northeast, at about a mile high...but it’s northeast of the whites,  so you can’t get a perspective. Washington is still a thousand feet higher, but Katahdin is very impressive in its own right, and very anomalous as well for N.E. imo. 

Katahdin from the south, with no significant hills between and only much lower mountains beside, presents a monolith unique to the eastern US.  It lacks the massive breadth of MWN with the other Presidentials, but it's stand-alone character is impressive.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

Hope that storm cuts way north/west and is rain here...tia

Just because it's you, I hope you get several feet on in ypur yard!! Lol

[tamarack]

15 minutes ago, toller65 said:

https://www.weather.gov/car/BangorHistoricFlood
https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1087/report.pdf

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Thank you for the memories, though the account didn't include the startling CF that followed the flood, dropping the BGR temp from 57 to 1.  (49/-7 at CAR with gusts 50+, bar. 957 mb.)  That 2nd pic is very evocative.  One can see the rescuer swimming toward the woman from her left.  There was also a "storybook" ending, as the couple were married the following summer.

[Cold Miser]

Daffodils popping out yesterday. First Kayaking of the season.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Katahdin from the south, with no significant hills between and only much lower mountains beside, presents a monolith unique to the eastern US.  It lacks the massive breadth of MWN with the other Presidentials, but it's stand-alone character is impressive.

The stand alone character is a Great point...Absolutely.

 

 Actually I love looking at from the north as I’m heading south from Houlton on 95...you can really see the bowl in front of it. It is a beast for sure. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Daffodils popping out yesterday. First Kayaking of the season.

Put one behind your ear and take a selfie

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Textbook sap run weather.

It's actually a monthly late, while also being extreme - both distinctions.. interesting.

Typical - have fam members that are heavily into the maple - this kicks in around Feb 20 each year up along and N of Rt 2's inland climate zone, where it's 49/24 type stuff.  This year we those cold snaps that seem to belay matters ...

But here's the thing that makes this interesting is that pure statistics were not unusually cold for Feb at most major climate sites.  HFD was -1, but ORH/Logan were both modestly positive by decimals...  So it's like paradoxical in that sense - somehow achieving normal February and the foliage believing it was too soon to be normal.  Looking at the dailies, it appears the numbers are classically lying about what took place, ...lost in averaging the low temperature may be pulling much of the weight there.

Anyway, they don't typically have to wait until the end of March and/or diurnal spread as large as 65/24 to get the sap spigots running. 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m hearing that the peepers are out. 

Two aspects stuck out to me on that 25 mile ride yesterday ... The still waters of the regional ponds and lakes were like mirrors.  That's unusual in our climate moving through mid to late afternoon. The diurnal solar hammer usually sends enough BL cycling vibrations to stir up at least ripplet shimmering but they were totally smooth reflectors.  The other aspect is that despite taking out the Rockhopper ... you could hear their horny song penetrte the knob whir of that bike's tire type.  I remember thinking about momentarily weird ironies, of riding a Rockhopper, with that happening... which compares an effect of the Rockhopper against an organism that prefers to hop along on rocks.  lol

[tamarack]

36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The stand alone character is a Great point...Absolutely.

 

 Actually I love looking at from the north as I’m heading south from Houlton on 95...you can really see the bowl in front of it. It is a beast for sure. 

2nd best view is from the pullout from Rt 11 between Sherman and Patten - profiles the whole Baxter range from Katahdin to the Travelers.  (Unfortunately, the last 5-6 times I've driven that route the view has been either been socked in or it was after dark.)

Edit:  The best sap run I've ever witnessed (the effects only, as I wasn't involved with sugaring) was the 4th week of March 1981, this despite the incredible February thaw that year which one might think would've messed up the sap season.  Temps for that March week:

22   40/4
23   46/0
24   45/2
25   41/1
26   51/-1
27   40/16
28   47/6
Without 3/27, the other 6 days averaged 45/2 (44/4 with all 7 days)
The Canadians, most of whom had tapped in NW Maine, were selling stuff cheap from that run a year later, $10 CA for a 4-liter can, then about $8 US.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

2nd best view is from the pullout from Rt 11 between Sherman and Patten - profiles the whole Baxter range from Katahdin to the Travelers.  (Unfortunately, the last 5-6 times I've driven that route the view has been either been socked in or it was after dark.)

I’ll have to take note of that, cuz I rarely use route 11, but I may just for that reason, on one of my winter trips next season to St Agatha..if it’s a clear day...?  Thanks Tamarack for that info. :-)

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll have to take note of that, cuz I rarely use route 11, but I may just for that reason, on one of my winter trips next season to St Agatha..if it’s a clear day...?  Thanks Tamarack for that info. :-)

That route also includes the "Patten rollercoaster", a series of steep hills and sharp turns in the 15 miles between that town and Knowles Corner where Rt 212 meets Rt 11.  The "no services next 39 miles" sign (I think it's still there) as one heads north from Patten is sobering.  So are the log trucks going 70.  However, the road is a whole lot better than 30-40 years ago.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

The 00z Para also drops a closed ULL same time period as EURO & Control. Just not south enough yet. There's definitely a threat for inland & NNE in this time period. 

In a sense if it :

...it's trying to offer a spring like blue-bomb potential, but it is doing it along a CC climate adjusted N latitude. ...Miller B's from Upstate NY to Gray Maine/GOM is fun for Montreal I guess...

  That's what the GFS appears to be after - but Climate Change thing is half-hearted snark too.  But forgetting that humar, the V16 and the operational runs have been displacing a spring event N of typology for whatever reason.

The problem I have with both are still what I pointed out yesterday - seeing as people give a shit what I think...haha.  Whatever, read this don't read this:

The Euro over amps, as a flash correction it applies going from mid to extended range.  This feature looks suspiciously like it is doing that ... It takes what looks more like a negative node between the ridge signatures ( day 5) ...and converts it into hemispheric torsional presence .. 'why'?  It really gives it a structural sort of curvature boost by the D6 to 7 relay going from the upper MW to the OV/90W region.  Where then of course it has all that structure going into D8 ..boom!  But it may all be fabrication over the previous 40 hours ...setting that into motion and as an aside, I think that is EURO product problem that may be more endemic to just eastern N/A due to our continental/PNAP feed-back... It positively interferes with their famed systemic 4-D variable  ..extra double top secret correction scheme. That's why those of us over here in the U.S. know to be incredulous about the "dreaded D8 Euro" bombs.  ( the same group that seems to always forget that when the chart comes out of course  haha)

The GFS has a problem on balance of being too cold on the polar side of the westerly(s) jets ... It's probably got ongoing dynamics problems because all graduates since 2000 achievement factulties are scaffolded by a combination of iPhone look ups and cheating on exams... So, whatever their charge, their razor sharp geophysical understanding causes too much height falls in the vicinity jet maxes .. Whereby it then it too ends up with a self-manufactured surplus of cold heights... --> too much gradient --> speeds up the flow --> progressive bias results. 

Seriously... because of its bias, at this time of year that particular model will be badder - heh... I mean spring's modulate baroclinic gradient... filing cold ..etc... It fighting that, nutating away from seasonal progression in lieu of its ongoing biased gradient offset. But here's the insidious thing - the HC shit appears to imposing more gradient in the seasonal means, anyway... So, this bias of the GFS cluster is operating in an enabling sort of system... In other words, the flow is fast anyway and has verified that way...  dedacal at lengths at this point, too.  ENSO warm...cool... nada ...didn't matter. 

The telecon layout from the GEFs actually signals a cut-off 'bowling ball' or 1997 look though.  So, ...these cons above are not targeted at whether a system will be there to monitor - I think the signal stands for its self in that regard. But how/what to suspect of those models in that time range.

[Lava Rock]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Trees are starting to budd here which is kind of early but i'm not surprised.

wtf? I need to look tonight.

[Typhoon Tip]

What an amazing correction for PF to Phinney land on this GFS run.. .

Puts a band of heavy snow QPF for 9 hours through that corridor as near as 108 hours...after days of runs that trended into southern Canada too - haha...

[Damage In Tolland]

Thursday has that 75-80 degree look. As long as sun comes out.. that’s a furnace with some dews thrown in .

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

What a soaker on the gfs for Sunday.

[toller65]

wtf? I need to look tonight.

I started to see buds along Casco Bay shoreline last week, just as the woodcock arrived

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thursday has that 75-80 degree look. As long as sun comes out.. that’s a furnace with some dews thrown in .

It does, Kev - yup..

That 00z Euro run has over-performing 2-m written all over it.

It's got that surged warm-sector look, where the 10C 850 isotherm gets kissed on the coarser charts ( PSU ) by the +12C running up parallel and very close to the 10 C isotherm, packed in ...

With multiple pressure lines situated not hugely close but close enough, it's like the perfect SW flow flag wobbling to mix the atmosphere too.  850 mb may actually be the boundary layer depth. That's code for maximizing the +12C down to the surface, then including the 2-m slope part of the sounding? Mm yeah probably puts up an 82 F at BDL if that model and that look for Thursday ~ 21Z is precisely correct, which ...there are other models.  But the Euro being inside of 4 days on that?  heh... good luck. ..

Either way, I'd hit that mid 70s that day for a good chunk of everywhere S of Albany to Brian.

[Typhoon Tip]

I remember clearly last week when we were scoping out this nape pattern ...the Euro's 2-meter temps were consummately in the 50s ...

We've been 62 to 67 over patios, driveways and downtown thoroughfares this whole go and will remain so..  Anyway, given the synoptic set up of parameters and evolution by the Euro, it's 72 2-meter could also error that much Thurs -

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

That route also includes the "Patten rollercoaster", a series of steep hills and sharp turns in the 15 miles between that town and Knowles Corner where Rt 212 meets Rt 11.  The "no services next 39 miles" sign (I think it's still there) as one heads north from Patten is sobering.  So are the log trucks going 70.  However, the road is a whole lot better than 30-40 years ago.

Lol yup..have taken it a few times over the years, so I am familiar with that.  Just haven’t been on it since about ‘03(18 yrs or so). 

[dryslot]

The v16 is now the Op GFS, This should be interesting going forward..............

[Damage In Tolland]

Fish had a good tweet. This week is reminiscent of Morch 2012. While not a month of 70’s and 80’s like we had then.. a week of 60’s and 70’s is not too dissimilar in shorter duration 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Fish had a good tweet. This week is reminiscent of Morch 2012. While not a month of 70’s and 80’s like we had then.. a week of 60’s and 70’s is not too dissimilar in shorter duration 

Nothing is like that week.

[CoastalWx]

Won't even be close.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nothing is like that week.

That was a whole month of 60’s to 80’s. I had stained my deck and mulched all beds before that month was over and I distinctly remember people were mowing and it was legit because the grass was growing 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Won't even be close.

 

It’s the 2nd or maybe 3rd warmest this week. Nothing will ever hit what we did that week. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s the 2nd or maybe 3rd warmest this week. Nothing will ever hit what we did that week. 

It will be nice wx, but that was an insane week. Hopefully April and May are nice. I like the mild wx, but when it's still sort of dead outside...it doesn't have the same feeling.