March 2021 Weather Discussion

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan’s got mid 60’s all week  .Even on NE flow it warms inland 

I'm glad you're station is online to see you 10 cooler than BDL.

[Torch Tiger]

52 minutes ago, George001 said:

A lot of this Hadley cell stuff is over my head right now (I plan on doing some reading to learn more about it) but I agree with the general idea that climate change is having a big impact on our winters. I have noticed that it seems harder to get a big slow moving east coast blizzard in recent years than it used to, fast flows have been dominating and storms just don’t seem to want to phase. I don’t really buy the whole “regression to the mean” thing when it comes to our recent winters, I see it as more of a combination of lag effect from the super nino in 2016 and climate change moving us to a less favorable base state.

In the past 20 years, we are getting a blockbuster every 3-4 years. That can only regress

[tamarack]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

So March looks to be a dud. Winter kind of sucked again. Feb was good. December was fun for 5 days with one other day on 10/30. Lucky to pull near avg snow.

"Dud" is too kind by far.  Cold w/o snow is a plus in December - good for frozen ground timber harvests and making safe ice.  Cold w/o snow in March is a big negative, and match that with historic lack of snow and it's the worst March I've had anywhere, with only 2010 within shouting distance.

October snow curse strikes again for New England 

Zero OCT snow here (and at the long-term co-op in Farmington it's been a neutral - 32 Octobers with 1" = 1" AN for season total but 1" BN for NOV-on.)

[dendrite]

My daily snowfalls over a trace this winter. lol

10/30  1.2"
11/03  0.4"
12/05  3.1"
12/17 34.4"
12/20  0.2"
12/28  0.2"
01/02  1.6"
01/03  0.5"
01/20  0.2"
01/21  1.7"
01/22  0.3"
01/26  0.8"
01/27  0.6"
02/01  3.7"
02/02  3.5"
02/05  1.7"
02/07  1.7"
02/09  2.3"
02/15  0.5"
02/16  1.0"
02/18  0.2"
02/19  4.3"
02/20  0.3"
02/22  3.7"
02/27  1.6"
03/01  0.3"
03/15  0.2"

 

[Cold Miser]

Sooooo, are you telling me that there is NOT a chance?

Over?

Finished?

Fini?

Kuput?

Finalizado?

Finito?

Erledigt?

 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My daily snowfalls over a trace this winter. lol

10/30  1.2"
11/03  0.4"
12/05  3.1"
12/17 34.4"
12/20  0.2"
12/28  0.2"
01/02  1.6"
01/03  0.5"
01/20  0.2"
01/21  1.7"
01/22  0.3"
01/26  0.8"
01/27  0.6"
02/01  3.7"
02/02  3.5"
02/05  1.7"
02/07  1.7"
02/09  2.3"
02/15  0.5"
02/16  1.0"
02/18  0.2"
02/19  4.3"
02/20  0.3"
02/22  3.7"
02/27  1.6"
03/01  0.3"
03/15  0.2"

 

 

Amazing how there's no statistical outliers on that list -

 

[PhineasC]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My daily snowfalls over a trace this winter. lol

10/30  1.2"
11/03  0.4"
12/05  3.1"
12/17 34.4"
12/20  0.2"
12/28  0.2"
01/02  1.6"
01/03  0.5"
01/20  0.2"
01/21  1.7"
01/22  0.3"
01/26  0.8"
01/27  0.6"
02/01  3.7"
02/02  3.5"
02/05  1.7"
02/07  1.7"
02/09  2.3"
02/15  0.5"
02/16  1.0"
02/18  0.2"
02/19  4.3"
02/20  0.3"
02/22  3.7"
02/27  1.6"
03/01  0.3"
03/15  0.2"

 

Take out the December anomaly and it was not a great winter in the majority of CNE. I've been talking about the lack of snowfalls over 2" here for a while. It was a crazy stretch there.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Sooooo, are you telling me that there is NOT a chance?

Over?

Finished?

Fini?

Kuput?

Finalizado?

Finito?

Erledigt?

 

Nah. Just more like 1 in a million...

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Take out the December anomaly and it was not a great winter in the majority of CNE. I've been talking about the lack of snowfalls over 2" here for a while. It was a crazy stretch there.

Yeah no doubt. It was like 15-16 without that storm. Like Tip said I just really love how it stands out against the other numbers. It's even better that it all fell in one calendar day and it wasn't split up across two.

[Typhoon Tip]

Kind of a geek alert but the overnight, tonight to about 21Z tomorrow could rival any of the larger diurnal changes we've seeing across the last year.

I think I recall a couple in Feb that were 32-ish...  but tonight? 

First of all, that's going to suuuuuuuuuuuuck major lemon balls - who in the world would want 15 F decoupled cold on the Equinox when there is no snow to protect, and pretty much nothing on the determinant horizon that resembles a chance for a nary flake?

Even winter enthusiasts probably would say, 'I'm crazy - not stupid' to that f loo-loo look tonight.  My god what a dick punch.  I mean I'm looking around ...DPs like 5 for f sake. You gotta be kiddin' me...

But tomorrow's parameters send the temp to 60 and bust MOS I'm think... or so - I mean above MOS in general.  If we can get into the upper teens tonight, that's a interesting diurnal spread.

In fact, all these days look that way coming up -  although none will be as cold as tonight

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Should be able to squeeze in a few more rainers for Phin and the NNE crew to close out March.

 

 

[kdxken]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Between 60-70 in CT everyday next week starting Sunday. Only shower chance looks like Friday. Shorts worn starting tomorrow 

Probably touch 80 in some of the warmer spots.

[tamarack]

50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Kind of a geek alert but the overnight, tonight to about 21Z tomorrow could rival any of the larger diurnal changes we've seeing across the last year.

I think I recall a couple in Feb that were 32-ish...  but tonight? 

First of all, that's going to suuuuuuuuuuuuck major lemon balls - who in the world would want 15 F decoupled cold on the Equinox when there is no snow to protect, and pretty much nothing on the determinant horizon that resembles a chance for a nary flake?

Even winter enthusiasts probably would say, 'I'm crazy - not stupid' to that f loo-loo look tonight.  My god what a dick punch.  I mean I'm looking around ...DPs like 5 for f sake. You gotta be kiddin' me...

But tomorrow's parameters send the temp to 60 and bust MOS I'm think... or so - I mean above MOS in general.  If we can get into the upper teens tonight, that's a interesting diurnal spread.

In fact, all these days look that way coming up -  although none will be as cold as tonight

42° range Wednesday (49/7) and may be about the same tomorrow.

[Torch Tiger]

Another seasonably cool day, that March sun is nice though.

[wxeyeNH]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

My daily snowfalls over a trace this winter. lol

10/30  1.2"
11/03  0.4"
12/05  3.1"
12/17 34.4"
12/20  0.2"
12/28  0.2"
01/02  1.6"
01/03  0.5"
01/20  0.2"
01/21  1.7"
01/22  0.3"
01/26  0.8"
01/27  0.6"
02/01  3.7"
02/02  3.5"
02/05  1.7"
02/07  1.7"
02/09  2.3"
02/15  0.5"
02/16  1.0"
02/18  0.2"
02/19  4.3"
02/20  0.3"
02/22  3.7"
02/27  1.6"
03/01  0.3"
03/15  0.2"

 

Only 24" for the 12/17 storm and not one storm over 3.5" this winter other than that.  62" on the season.  Unless something happens soon I will be below my 80-85" average.  The big concern for me is drought.  Not a lot of snow to melt.  Missed the rain yesterday for the most part. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

42° range Wednesday (49/7) and may be about the same tomorrow.

Nice!  ... I admit to this being one of my personal weird little fetishes, how far we can get the temp to rise from daily nadir to apex.  The most I have ever seen in my life was not even attributed to a radiational cooling to open sky insolation - like tomorrow's forcing will come from.

It was in January 1994, when it was 9 F at dawn with pixie flakes and tiny aggies flitting down...  By 7:45 that evening it was 63 with S winds gusting to storm force with kelvin-hemholtz waves of cold steam rollin' off snow banks.... 

Granted, that's UML/ Merrimack Valley in NE Mass/Lowell ... Maine has their own climate and I am not frankly sure what kind of diurnals are standard deviation extremes ... At either region, this is the time of the year to put up some big radiation - insolation relay variances though.  When you get kinetically primed air masses with low DP ( rotted polar basically...), then equi-sol...

But 42 ... man, that's impressive.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Kind of a geek alert but the overnight, tonight to about 21Z tomorrow could rival any of the larger diurnal changes we've seeing across the last year.

I think I recall a couple in Feb that were 32-ish...  but tonight? 

First of all, that's going to suuuuuuuuuuuuck major lemon balls - who in the world would want 15 F decoupled cold on the Equinox when there is no snow to protect, and pretty much nothing on the determinant horizon that resembles a chance for a nary flake?

Even winter enthusiasts probably would say, 'I'm crazy - not stupid' to that f loo-loo look tonight.  My god what a dick punch.  I mean I'm looking around ...DPs like 5 for f sake. You gotta be kiddin' me...

But tomorrow's parameters send the temp to 60 and bust MOS I'm think... or so - I mean above MOS in general.  If we can get into the upper teens tonight, that's a interesting diurnal spread.

In fact, all these days look that way coming up -  although none will be as cold as tonight

Yup the light rain the entire region had yesterday totally dried up. Ground is totally dry, tinder is like CO, not even any puddles . Dews look dry all week so numbers will bust on high side all week 

[George001]

3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

In the past 20 years, we are getting a blockbuster every 3-4 years. That can only regress

It seems like at least until a few years ago we typically would get at least one at least every other year. In our best years we get 3 or 4 big ones (2011, 2015, ect). We have had one big one in the past 5 years (March 2018) and along with that we have had 5 consecutive winters with above average temps. 70s in winter used to be very rare but it seems we have a 70 or two in mid winter all the time now. That seems more like climate change than regression to the mean. It makes sense, the warmer the temps get the more difficult it is to get big snows. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Ginx and Bob back into a drought. Another couple dry weeks and it swallows up the region. Oh boy.

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Take out the December anomaly and it was not a great winter in the majority of CNE. I've been talking about the lack of snowfalls over 2" here for a while. It was a crazy stretch there.

Or break it into 3 11”ers, one each in D,J and F. Then the winter looks ok with a crappy March

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ginx and Bob back into a drought. Another couple dry weeks and it swallows up the region. Oh boy.

I'd be concerned in VT. Hopefully a few strong, warm cutters with a river of qpf will help them.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I'd be concerned in VT. Hopefully a few strong, warm cutters with a river of qpf will help them.

We very concerned. Once the snow melts we will all run out of water.  Be forced to squeeze it out of the muddy ruts on the dirt roads as the ground thaws.

[mreaves]

31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We very concerned. Once the snow melts we will all run out of water.  Be forced to squeeze it out of the muddy ruts on the dirt roads as the ground thaws.

Now that I don’t run a golf course that is very vulnerable to drought, I am less concerned than I used to be. 

[PhineasC]

Exactly how much rain does SE Mass need to NOT be in a drought?

[PhineasC]

51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We very concerned. Once the snow melts we will all run out of water.  Be forced to squeeze it out of the muddy ruts on the dirt roads as the ground thaws.

There is 8-9 inches of liquid in my pack that is being slowly melted out now. I don't need any cutters at the moment. Bring them in August and September.

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There is 8-9 inches of liquid in my pack that is being slowly melted out now. I don't need any cutters at the moment. Bring them in August and September.

Just sit back and watch in awe lol

[ma blizzard]

33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just sit back and watch in awe lol

500 looked 4/97 esque

[SJonesWX]

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

My daily snowfalls over a trace this winter. lol

10/30  1.2"
11/03  0.4"
12/05  3.1"
12/17 34.4"
12/20  0.2"
12/28  0.2"
01/02  1.6"
01/03  0.5"
01/20  0.2"
01/21  1.7"
01/22  0.3"
01/26  0.8"
01/27  0.6"
02/01  3.7"
02/02  3.5"
02/05  1.7"
02/07  1.7"
02/09  2.3"
02/15  0.5"
02/16  1.0"
02/18  0.2"
02/19  4.3"
02/20  0.3"
02/22  3.7"
02/27  1.6"
03/01  0.3"
03/15  0.2"

 

no outliers there lol

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just sit back and watch in awe lol

There’s Kevin’s annual ice storm

[kdxken]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup the light rain the entire region had yesterday totally dried up. Ground is totally dry, tinder is like CO, not even any puddles . Dews look dry all week so numbers will bust on high side all week 

Just in time for the CT leaf out.