March 2021 Weather Discussion

[Modfan2]

Winds should dry surface pretty quick, brush fires continue over the next week

[DavisStraight]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It was a 20 day winter in Feb here (great stretch) plus the Dec event. I had it at B- heading into March but I will downgrade to a C+. 

You're generous, I had it at a C but after this month I'm downgrading to C-

[NorEastermass128]

Revised Winter Grade:  D

28.5" with a lot of missed opportunities.  Lots of cold & wind in between rainers.  Time to bring on the warmth.

[dryslot]

Grade: F

[Cyclone-68]

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Grade: F

agree

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Useless cold and wind today.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Grade: F

I am teetering C-/D+
Skunked in January skunked in March and Franklin county did not get the October snow.

[GCWarrior]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I am teetering C-/D+
Skunked in January skunked in March and Franklin county did not get the October snow.

I'm factoring in the decent skiing in Feb into my grade so I'll go with a C+, things could have been a lot better though. But I can't even remember the last time we had snow.  I will say February was the best winter month we have had since March 2018.  But pull out February, last week of Jan and 6 days in December.... the rest of winter smells like a big stinky rat!  

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

October snow curse strikes again for New England 

My hypothesis, it's actually the HC expansion curse that strikes ...

     'what the f does that mean?'

Firstly, this may be long for some - but there isn't really a way to present this material 'quickly' as it is multifaceted and complex.  So, if reading and engaging is not your interest, you've been advised.

Hadley Cell is the amorphously boundaried circulation associated with rising deep tropical air that in turn moves polarward at very high altitudes, where it then begins to move downward.

The physical volume of the HC region you see in the anime above has been measurably expanding in recent decades... owing - it is believed - to climate change and warming total ambient atmosphere: 

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/

This has all kinds of ramifications and forcing at mid latitudes, but for brevity ...expanding into the subtropical latitudes by insidiously small amount, actually "compresses" the gradient every N of there, because the boundary of the HC is not a "curb" in free air/space. The integrate slope between 30 N and 70 N is steeper than 50 years ago.

As an aside ...this is why commercial airline traffic have seen a marked increase in air/land speeds ...even setting records, on flights traversing over oceanic basins over the last 20 years with increased frequency.  When traveling W to E in a fast maelstrom, the jet moves faster than the streamline velocity to maintain lift - but if the streamline is moving at 200 kts already, the airline ends up moving in relation to the stationary land at 200+ 400 = almost sonic speeds. I think I read once of a flight between LGA and Heathrow up in London 3:45:00!

SO ...this is the real October curse - how?

It is because as the summers are relaying the torch into autumns, the flow is speeding up ahead of the previous climate model that was in place prior to the last 20 years of "hockey stick" climate.  In that prior time, we had more nebular flows in autumns. These transported comparatively shorter lived "cool" snaps as opposed to full-on snow supporting synoptic outbreaks Those then backsided these 'Indian Summer' etc - just a matter of time before the cancel culture hits that naming convention ... Then, the colder heights of winter gathering mass would service mid latitudes later on. That was the 'basic' sort of seasonal expectation.

But, with the speeding up flow..this is establishing earlier season pattern tendencies that are non-nebular. And, because by virtue of just coming off the N.H. warm season, there is a natural tendency to build heights over western N. America as the Pacific flow impinges against the super-synoptic/geographical circumstance of the continental forcing ... Perennial North American Pattern ( which is not the same as the Pacific North American - ), gets a boost ...which then leads to the PNA getting early season exaggerated.  Cold loading become proficient earlier mainly Canada; but, given our particular geographical constraints that favors our tapping those air mass in events...   See where all that's going..?

Next thing we know...we have cold transports at usually early dates setting up actual snow shots across the bow, as opposed to mere cool snaps, as the harbingers of winter...

A similar seasonal lag effect is happening at the other end, too... where the flow is lingering fast into spring, and as March sun sweeps back N and starts cooking the hemisphere..something similar takes place ... we get late pattern augmentations supporting cool transports in April and May - but it's not as abrupt as the October/Novemeber autumn version...etc.

These are not every year occurrences in transition seasons.  They are increasing frequency -related matters.  But, this does not parlay to winter - either direction.  What is happening is, the hemisphere then finds it's winter gradient/ R-wave tendency, and that then effectively wipes out that transient seasonal lag effect... and that pattern in the ensuing winter may or may not support snow for entirely different pattern related reasons.  You have to consider October and the winter as mutually exclusive in that sense.  But we are human... and humans tend to seek and find patterns in nature, ...so much so, that if there isn't really one, they will latch onto plausibility to make sense of it all... So, it snowed in October, ..the winter was bad, two points make a pattern.  But there not really related really in this hypothesis of transition seasonality.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

October snow curse strikes again for New England 

Not really.

[CoastalWx]

We had cold south and a wavy pattern all January and part of Feb. Definitely not the Hadley Cell monster with a massive EC ridge. Hell suburbs of DC have well AN snow. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

You're generous, I had it at a C but after this month I'm downgrading to C-

The 20 day stretch here was pretty special so it certainly overrides Jan and March to a certain extent. Without that, F. 

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We had cold south and a wavy pattern all January and part of Feb. Definitely not the Hadley Cell monster with a massive EC ridge. Hell suburbs of DC have well AN snow. 

Doesn't seem so on the surface, no.

But, I'd caution for the general reader: 

-- the HC expansion does not = warm winters and no snow.  What it does equally is screwing with patterns and teleconnection correlators, and f'ing everything with too much velocity toward unexpected results...

Meanwhile, the AO was dominate this year.  Considering the La Nina/EL Nino/general ENS and the AO have a longer term, noisy correlation that if anything is vaguely negative, that more so suggests that either can be dominate without necessarily controlling the other.   Cold Jan/ Feb may have been provided through the polar circuitry and the flow still was fast overall - so that's more of a smoking gun for gradient up underneath, persisting. 

I guess eventually if that expansion continues... sure... we may start seeing - perhaps - these climate bands moving N up the eastern seaboard.   That's predicated by climate modeling by the end of X - years.   As a separate note, there are a lot of empirical measured aspects that are exceeding the CC models ( timing -wise), too... just sayn'... Plus, thresholds?  I mean, folks say things "we'll be DC winters here in 20 years" ...and then someone heavy-handedly corrects them that it will be safely 100 years from now and outside their lives, and the usual mantras of evasive tactical shit to me... when the fact of the matter is, that person doesn't know!  We could cross the threshold that no one saw coming and boom, we be f*ed. 

Anyway, this is an evolving aspect of climate change.  It's effects/ observability in the environment of course will vary ... year to year, based upon other aspect globally going on.

 

 

[A Moonlit Sky]

The difference in the winter between here in Albany and home in Connecticut was pretty stark. Besides the December storm that dropped over 20" at my location in Albany, it's been a dud winter. All the February fun largely missed Albany. I did at least get to experience the Super Bowl storm in Connecticut, though, as I was back home for the game. What I can say is that being further north has helped keep snow on the ground longer and ice on the ponds. I just got back from my morning run and there are still snow piles in the shaded areas and the ponds are still iced over.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said:

The difference in the winter between here in Albany and home in Connecticut was pretty stark. Besides the December storm that dropped over 20" at my location in Albany, it's been a dud winter. All the February fun largely missed Albany. I did at least get to experience the Super Bowl storm in Connecticut, though, as I was back home for the game. What I can say is that being further north has helped keep snow on the ground longer and ice on the ponds. I just got back from my morning run and there are still snow piles in the shaded areas and the ponds are still iced over.

We had good retention here in CT the whole month of February..that’s part of what made that stretch quite good here in SNE. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Next week looks fairly mild even if not sunny and dry all week.

Should see some spring bulbs really pop. My hosta are already poking through 

[Typhoon Tip]

Zippo trace of spring in flora above or ground level out here along Rt 2 in N-central/NE Mass... 

Usually be early March, forsythia shrubbery's been fooled into at least bud swelling but we got nadda.  Suspect that changes by mid week.

The difference between today and tomorrow will be very noticeable.  42 struggle, tomorrow should bust NWS MOS 55-58 coverage to 60 - although I'm seeing less of that on these sort of synoptic days. I wonder if the 'brain'/database is catching up finally.. unknown.  Anyway, looks like 58 to 68 until at least Tuesday ...then we'll see if that lingering thing off the SE coast drills a Labrador vomit hose inland mid week... 

I think overall..this may be the last of 'this' kind of cold, though.  The atmospheric agency has sent the memo to the other butt-bone office to tell them they can take over how/when/why we get porked going forward.  Lol..  

 

 

[CoastalWx]

36 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Next week looks fairly mild even if not sunny and dry all week.

Should see some spring bulbs really pop. My hosta are already poking through 

Couple of rain chances, and watch the NE winds.

[Lava Rock]

Great day at River

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

Between 60-70 in CT everyday next week starting Sunday. Only shower chance looks like Friday. Shorts worn starting tomorrow 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Grade: F

This winter was supposed to be great for you and shitty for me down here.

[George001]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Not really.

Yeah October snow doesn’t really mean anything about the following winter. With March being a bust it will end up right around average where I live. Not really anything special but not a garbage winter like the last 2 either.  

[Torch Tiger]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Between 60-70 in CT everyday next week starting Sunday. Only shower chance looks like Friday. Shorts worn starting tomorrow 

temps are rocketing and we finishing March AN...tried to tell them

[George001]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My hypothesis, it's actually the HC expansion curse that strikes ...

     'what the f does that mean?'

Firstly, this may be long for some - but there isn't really a way to present this material 'quickly' as it is multifaceted and complex.  So, if reading and engaging is not your interest, you've been advised.

Hadley Cell is the amorphously boundaried circulation associated with rising deep tropical air that in turn moves polarward at very high altitudes, where it then begins to move downward.

The physical volume of the HC region you see in the anime above has been measurably expanding in recent decades... owing - it is believed - to climate change and warming total ambient atmosphere: 

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/

This has all kinds of ramifications and forcing at mid latitudes, but for brevity ...expanding into the subtropical latitudes by insidiously small amount, actually "compresses" the gradient every N of there, because the boundary of the HC is not a "curb" in free air/space. The integrate slope between 30 N and 70 N is steeper than 50 years ago.

As an aside ...this is why commercial airline traffic have seen a marked increase in air/land speeds ...even setting records, on flights traversing over oceanic basins over the last 20 years with increased frequency.  When traveling W to E in a fast maelstrom, the jet moves faster than the streamline velocity to maintain lift - but if the streamline is moving at 200 kts already, the airline ends up moving in relation to the stationary land at 200+ 400 = almost sonic speeds. I think I read once of a flight between LGA and Heathrow up in London 3:45:00!

SO ...this is the real October curse - how?

It is because as the summers are relaying the torch into autumns, the flow is speeding up ahead of the previous climate model that was in place prior to the last 20 years of "hockey stick" climate.  In that prior time, we had more nebular flows in autumns. These transported comparatively shorter lived "cool" snaps as opposed to full-on snow supporting synoptic outbreaks Those then backsided these 'Indian Summer' etc - just a matter of time before the cancel culture hits that naming convention ... Then, the colder heights of winter gathering mass would service mid latitudes later on. That was the 'basic' sort of seasonal expectation.

But, with the speeding up flow..this is establishing earlier season pattern tendencies that are non-nebular. And, because by virtue of just coming off the N.H. warm season, there is a natural tendency to build heights over western N. America as the Pacific flow impinges against the super-synoptic/geographical circumstance of the continental forcing ... Perennial North American Pattern ( which is not the same as the Pacific North American - ), gets a boost ...which then leads to the PNA getting early season exaggerated.  Cold loading become proficient earlier mainly Canada; but, given our particular geographical constraints that favors our tapping those air mass in events...   See where all that's going..?

Next thing we know...we have cold transports at usually early dates setting up actual snow shots across the bow, as opposed to mere cool snaps, as the harbingers of winter...

A similar seasonal lag effect is happening at the other end, too... where the flow is lingering fast into spring, and as March sun sweeps back N and starts cooking the hemisphere..something similar takes place ... we get late pattern augmentations supporting cool transports in April and May - but it's not as abrupt as the October/Novemeber autumn version...etc.

These are not every year occurrences in transition seasons.  They are increasing frequency -related matters.  But, this does not parlay to winter - either direction.  What is happening is, the hemisphere then finds it's winter gradient/ R-wave tendency, and that then effectively wipes out that transient seasonal lag effect... and that pattern in the ensuing winter may or may not support snow for entirely different pattern related reasons.  You have to consider October and the winter as mutually exclusive in that sense.  But we are human... and humans tend to seek and find patterns in nature, ...so much so, that if there isn't really one, they will latch onto plausibility to make sense of it all... So, it snowed in October, ..the winter was bad, two points make a pattern.  But there not really related really in this hypothesis of transition seasonality.

A lot of this Hadley cell stuff is over my head right now (I plan on doing some reading to learn more about it) but I agree with the general idea that climate change is having a big impact on our winters. I have noticed that it seems harder to get a big slow moving east coast blizzard in recent years than it used to, fast flows have been dominating and storms just don’t seem to want to phase. I don’t really buy the whole “regression to the mean” thing when it comes to our recent winters, I see it as more of a combination of lag effect from the super nino in 2016 and climate change moving us to a less favorable base state.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

A lot of this Hadley cell stuff is over my head right now (I plan on doing some reading to learn more about it) but I agree with the general idea that climate change is having a big impact on our winters. I have noticed that it seems harder to get a big slow moving east coast blizzard in recent years than it used to, fast flows have been dominating and storms just don’t seem to want to phase. I don’t really buy the whole “regression to the mean” thing when it comes to our recent winters, I see it as more of a combination of lag effect from the super nino in 2016 and climate change moving us to a less favorable base state.

December storm was wasn't all that progressive. And also March 2018 had like 4 beasts that month. That's not true at all. You've got to look at the ENSO state too. I see a lot of recent confirmation bias here. 

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

A lot of this Hadley cell stuff is over my head right now (I plan on doing some reading to learn more about it) but I agree with the general idea that climate change is having a big impact on our winters. I have noticed that it seems harder to get a big slow moving east coast blizzard in recent years than it used to, fast flows have been dominating and storms just don’t seem to want to phase. I don’t really buy the whole “regression to the mean” thing when it comes to our recent winters, I see it as more of a combination of lag effect from the super nino in 2016 and climate change moving us to a less favorable base state.

How many "big slow east coast blizzards  has there been??.....and I mean true blizzards, not storms that may have had blizzard conditions for a few hours.....

[CoastalWx]

I mean I don't see the HC monster here. And the ridging in the PAC with that trough in SW Canada likely would be more active 8/10 times here, Axis of anomalous snow was NJ to MD.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

temps are rocketing and we finishing March AN...tried to tell them

Ryan’s got mid 60’s all week  .Even on NE flow it warms inland 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan’s got mid 60’s all week  .Even on NE flow it warms inland 

Good, now let’s just keep it dry.