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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Have we moved to the BDL verification system?  Need to start looking at temps through the lens of BDL and not ORH.

Thankfully, I think we have Kevin's PWS online now, right? So we can track his backyard where real people live.

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I see mostly 30s and 40s this week. Maybe a low elevation 50+ spot on Thursday if lucky and clouds don't roll in early as Scooter said.

actually Thurs does have a bit of a 'nape' appeal yeah but otherwise this week is winter.   Late winter but give the forefathers some credit for picking March 21 as the first day of sping - lol

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You were touting that this week. If we hope and pray, this happens Sunday and beyond.  Thursday could sneak into the upper 50s if we get enough sun, but then Friday and Saturday chilly again. 

I believe I posted after Monday is mild. And I defined mild as generally 40’s and 50’s for this week. Tomorrow should be 40, Wednesday 45 ish and Thursday seems like 50’s. Friday depends on sun 

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Heh...not to be a dink but I don't think snow in March of any flavor as being very weird -

In fact, I think today's 24/-1 combination of T/TD with zero cloud is actually more of an achievement than 24 and snowing.  This f'n airmass just defeated a yato-yato ton nuclear fusion bomb and laughed at it -

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basically from Sunday on winter's over on this operational Euro run... 

Does it return for a fluke or even stay in April... maybe, but the super indices don't support that.  They really haven't support these last couple arctic cut ins either so.. we'll see. 

But that circulation overall complexion has a Pac dominated flow going almost zonal along 60 N up in Canada, with everywhere south of there naked to the assault of post Equinox. Further yet the sub -20 C shit is finally retreated(ing) up to the N- slope of Alaska over to the archipelago of N. Canada.  

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22 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Good news is that (per the euro op) next week looks quite decent, ends the party by early Thu/ D10 but there's little arctic air to be found. A mild down 

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

 

I've seen this before in spring where there is a 'flash' that pans over the hemisphere ... it usually happens from mid March to mid April at some point, and the seasonal torch is relayed. I remember this happened really obviously in 2014, when that bomb missed a big blizzard ...  I think that was mid or late March. The cold that had been plaguing the early spring wrapped up with that storm and exited and it was nearing 60 within a week after that 45 days of sub freezing - ...never turned back.  The charts at the time had that same abrupt unilaterally abandoning of cold..

For us, it is not necessarily balmy times at all times ahead - so please integrate that into your thoughts as you precede through these next four weeks as a soft troller - LOL...

No seriously, we still have private BD hell and cut-off blue surprise risk for while yet.   But the flash is like this though?  What happens is the cold 'density' just up and disappears and what's left behind is pocketed more trivial cool plumes.  This appear to be what the Euro is after ..the key sort of era in the modeling the happens ever year where there's some critical week and the layout just almost abruptly abandons any 'attitude' of cold intent on mid latitudes.  I call it the seasonal flash.  I also see this in November going the other way ...but it's not as obvious in the autumn. 

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even on the GFS, the temps 850 on down rapidly plummet after Midnight Friday. Rather impressive to see. 20s on Friday morning with snow? 

Yup.  Not all that uncommon in mid March though. Kevin’s Weenie is out...and he’s tugging it, but he’s in the reverse psychology mode(it’s getting very old), we all know the drill.  50 perhaps Thursday afternoon, snow late at night and Friday morning,  then 48 hrs later it’s 55-60.  Not all that uncommon in March. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup.  Not all that uncommon in mid March though. Kevin’s Weenie is out...and he’s tugging it, but he’s in the reverse psychology mode(it’s getting very old), we all know the drill.  50 perhaps Thursday afternoon, snow late at night and Friday morning,  then 48 hrs later it’s 55-60.  Not all that uncommon in March. 

Seasons in seasons.

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7 hours ago, dryslot said:

Very blustery and cold this morning, 6.3°F, This time of year if its going to be dry, Rather have it warm, This month has produced .01" of snow, If i don't see another accumulating snowfall, This will be the worst winter here in the last 20 yrs.

1° at 7 this AM, probably the low.  Sitting at 0.1" for the month and that may be my final answer.  If so, it will be the lowest March snowfall at my home since 1954 (zero) in NNJ.  Not a record I wish to set.  And dry windy cold on the Ides of March is bad in so many ways.

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17 minutes ago, tamarack said:

1° at 7 this AM, probably the low.  Sitting at 0.1" for the month and that may be my final answer.  If so, it will be the lowest March snowfall at my home since 1954 (zero) in NNJ.  Not a record I wish to set.  And dry windy cold on the Ides of March is bad in so many ways.

Looks more active towards the second half of the month, probably rain.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ugh that is a shitshow commute for a lot of the region Fri morning.

Gonna have to watch this sucker. If that ULL maintains integrity longer, it’s going to cause some bigger issues on Friday. It doesn’t take all that long for the cold air to get drawn in with that high pressing down. Also could enhance the fronto. 

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