Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Beware the ides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 these predictions are near-impossible but they give me a good laugh one of them is probably bound to happen sooner than later which is the funny thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Beware the ides Said 2 days ago, everyone was bust Happy on March when all likelihood they will see another foot before months end vs full nude disc golf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 10 hours ago, George001 said: On the Canadian it appears after near record warmth this week, we have 3 miller b nor’easters from March 17th to March 20th. According to the upper level pattern the first 2 threats are unlikely to be big if anything. However it is the third low that catches my interest. Leading up to the storm there is a huge ridge out west which should allow for storms to amplify, slow down, and come up the coast. Since the flow is slow and buckled on the Canadian, the room for error when it comes to phasing of the northern and southern streams increases. Any storm that does develop will undergo rapid cyclogenesis and come up the coast as a massive slow moving ocean low. I strongly believe there will be a massive slow moving east coast storm but the big question is going to be precip type. At this point it will be late March so cold air won’t be as easy to come by. However, on the Canadian the polar vortex is not anywhere near the North Pole, it is displaced to the south and east. With the polar vortex sitting over east-central Canada as well as a highly amplified flow, the pattern favors northern stream energy diving into the Midwest, which would not only phase with the southern branch but it would also bring cold air in. It’s still far out and it is late March so there are factors working against us, but with the pattern in place there is the potential for a massive early spring blizzard in New England. If the threat does end up panning out, due to the gradient of warm March waters amplified by near record warmth clashing with cold air being funneled into the northeast via the polar vortex, that’s a recipe for a historically strong ocean low. 940s or 950s is not out of the question. However, the warm waters is a double edged sword, as it will be harder to overcome the warm ocean air, which will lead to rain in the coastal areas. In my opinion there will be ptype issues possibly as far west as Worcester with this type of setup. However, if the storm does reach this strength with a favorable track, it will likely be a start as rain and then as the low bombs out and the winds turn more north than north east, the rain snow line would crash right and all of eastern mass would flip over to heavy snow with blizzard conditions developing for 12+ hours due to the slow moving nature of the storm. The run didn’t go out that far, but in my opinion if you extrapolate the Canadian it would be a few hours of rain followed by a long duration blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 3 feet in all of eastern Mass. I’m not forecasting that just yet, but this does fit the pattern so there is a higher than usual chance something like that will happen. You need to flip the calendar in the basement from Feb 2015 to Mar 2019.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 This is just stupid GFS gone wild 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 8 hours ago, Fozz said: Can you please elaborate? George reminds me of William . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 4 hours ago, George001 said: The euro has a Miller b for the 20th Warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 11 to start the day. Should be a pretty wild temperature increase today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This is just stupid GFS gone wild Worst will be up near Wyoming I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Warm For you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Damaging winds coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Damaging winds coming Doesn't look as impressive as the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Stein stomping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This is just stupid GFS gone wild Is heavy late season snow part of the climo in the front range or is it a more recent thing? I feel like the last few years the front range ski areas have been crushed mid march deep into april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 Just now, GCWarrior said: Is heavy late season snow part of the climo in the front range or is it a more recent thing? I feel like the last few years the front range ski areas have been crushed mid march deep into april. That is their climo for big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 NAM and GFS and even Euro are more advisory stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 24/18. Big temp swing coming today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 7 hours ago, mreaves said: Was that Stowe today? Overcast all day up in Jay. That was Monday. Clear this morning. Low of 14F to start the torch day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 37 off a low of 30. Green shoots coming up and grass starting to ever so slightly green in the sunny torch spots. It feels good admittedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is their climo for big snow. Yeah some spots there have their snowiest months in March/April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 Anyways, that period from the 17th or 18th on is one to watch. I don't think that has changed in over a week. Enjoy the next few days because winter tries for its last gasp. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Anyways, that period from the 17th or 18th on is one to watch. I don't think that has changed in over a week. Enjoy the next few days because winter tries for its last gasp. Yeah prob about a week to perhaps 10 day window there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah prob about a week to perhaps 10 day window there. Yep, nice to see some interesting solutions on various op runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: This is just stupid GFS gone wild I’ll just leave this here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stein stomping Natures fertilizer don't know he's worried about rain. Probably 2 inches of water right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Natures fertilizer don't know he's worried about rain. Probably 2 inches of water right there He strikes me as a guy who is worried about a drought but secretly wishes for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Doesn't look as impressive as the last one. Which had zero impact on my life, as it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Which had zero impact on my life, as it was. Yeah nothing exciting as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Get ready they’re saying Friday night and Saturday... This will be the most impactful period of the extended forecast. The truly arctic front moves through Friday night into Saturday morning bringing a period of strong to damaging winds to all of southern New England. This setup looks quite similar to the strong wind event we experienced last week...strong cold air advection (850 mb temps plunging over a short period of time), uniform NW winds through the column, and a strong low level jet. While we have a 45 to 55 kt jet at 850 mb, guidance indicates mixing to near 800 mb. This will lead to some strong, potentially damaging winds ramping up late Friday night, peaking very early Saturday morning 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He strikes me as a guy who is worried about a drought but secretly wishes for it. Examining the internal climatic conflict that plagues the psyche of an obscure twitter met...yea, fun pattern Time to draft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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