March 2021 Weather Discussion

[8611Blizz]

If it's plowable then fine, but I don't need anymore white rain around here.  50's with no rain is good for the outdoor work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey so... I admit - I don't think I was a part of the 'Stein' origin -

what does that mean exactly ?

Drought....I think its a reference to met Dave Epstein's alleged drought obsession.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Drought....I think its a reference to met Dave Epstein's drought obsession.

Yes. He is an avid gardener who loses sleep overnight when there is a dry spell. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Maybe because it would not even be close here - easier where 2014-15 had 250% of normal snow than here, where it was 25% AN.

 

 

ORH is still due for more regression.....they had nearly 120" in 2014-2015 against their annual average of 69.1"

Since that season:

2015-2016: 47.2

2016-2017: 78.3

2017-2018: 96.1

2018-2019: 51.4

2019-2020: 44.9

2020-2021 (so far): 70.7

Mean: 64.8"

So they are running a little below average (mean could still come up with additional snowfall this year), but not nearly enough to offset the good times.

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeks ago ? LOL

Yeah, winter ended there in late Feb. as we discussed. Slower winter rot in here SNE

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

What we don't is to blow our warm load now in early spring, so that from may to July 4 it's overcast days of wheel o'rhea 

There is some precedence for that...

Sometimes these early continental warm plumes will roll-out ...and end up there in a -NAO episode.  The warmth transports up at mid and higher latitudes and then you get a transient blocking.  I don't know about this year though - seems with La Nina footprint and fast flow lingering ... those may sort of 'ablate' that tendency too..

 

[Torch Tiger]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sort of ....

I wouldn't even say this in hyperbole - in SNE.   Until after Easter does that jest gather any weight -

Not sure how old you are, but .. on March 28th, 1997, it was a Saturday.   High based CU floated by on a raft of buoyant warmth under sun searing enough that the air shimmered at distances.  High based CU = tall, warm boundary layer.  It was 64 F at 1 pm...as I ambled across the bridge up there on University Ave that spans the Merrimack River.  Girls laying out on blankets around the commons outside of dorm halls.   Me not getting any of them..  the universe was peace.

2 days later we were under a winter storm warning, and 12 hours after that, Metrowest of Boston was under 20 to 36" of yard stick shock and awe because 'most of them knew winter was now done in SNE' before that happened.

So yar ...you're probably being a lighthearted troll ... but just so I'm not being a hypocrite - I see reasons to be open to warmth ... But that does not preclude anomalies that really can't be assumed not possible around here.  It's like a proverbial landmine getting us to April 15, even in the warmest of times.   Hell, even 2012 had week of cold in there from a -NAO pulse.. Just didn't time with anything. 

I am talking about an extended cold pattern that resembles late winter. 1997 was not that, either

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey so... I admit - I don't think I was a part of the 'Stein' origin -

what does that mean exactly ?

He has a terrible and disturbing fascination with droughts. It’s all he talks about in the summer and he’s already tweeting now that he’s worried about a bad one this summer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He has a terrible and disturbing fascination with droughts. It’s all he talks about in the summer and he’s already tweeting now that he’s worried about a bad one this summer. 

I love the webbed fingers lol

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who lives there?

My sister, my nieces, nephews, grand nieces, grand nephews.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He has a terrible and disturbing fascination with droughts. It’s all he talks about in the summer and he’s already tweeting now that he’s worried about a bad one this summer. 

Sounds like your twin, he probably likes high dews too. There is a resemblance 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I am talking about an extended cold pattern that resembles late winter. 1997 was not that, either

True .. but, from a psycho-babble perspective... If that happened, no one would give ratz azz if it was 70 a few times in March - just sayn'

That's all that matters in here kid -   ... people, and their drug.  LOL

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sounds like your twin, he probably likes high dews too. There is a resemblance 

I noticed he has your hands and you his.. interesting 

[Fozz]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I am itching for a snow event before the end of the season. But if not, then hopefully nice weather. 

I am too, but at this point, after seeing the latest guidance, my expectations are zero. 

This will be my chance to experience spring skiing up north for the first time, after last year’s events robbed us of the opportunity.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Records at Farmington co-op for Wed-Fri are 60/63/64.  Low chance for threatening those up here.

Mm .. I think the coastal plain of Maine where the deep layer vector is exiting ENE is pretty well situated to go above machine - just sayn'

Not sure where you are ... but a WSW wind under 850 mb tapping +10 C nosing over central NE in the Euro ... comes d-slope across that area . 

I wonder ...does that send rivers like the Saco over their seasonal over-flow plains ... Probably gets the Merrimack triggered come to think of it... 

We'll see -

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The region as a whole needs to. Obviously some more than others (like myself), but it's been a snowgasm overall since 07-08 minus a few seasons. Kind of due for a meh stretch, even if it's just a string of seasons near normal.

Eh' W of the River from 'Berg up through Berks and over to the Monads has not had any way above average Winters since 2015 and before that it was lots of average to slightly above winters.  Same with ENY I would imagine?  Mitch is an exception since he is at 2k. He an Backedge had good year this year.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I noticed he has your hands and you his.. interesting 

Pics?

[Torch Tiger]

We will definitely need to monitor the drought over the coming weeks, at least it's something to track.

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Eh' W of the River from 'Berg up through Berks and over to the Monads has not had any way above average Winters since 2015 and before that it was lots of average to slightly above winters.  Same with ENY I would imagine?  Mitch is an exception since he is at 2k. He an Backedge had good year this year.

I should have clarified, I meant eastern areas. 

[George001]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH is still due for more regression.....they had nearly 120" in 2014-2015 against their annual average of 69.1"

Since that season:

2015-2016: 47.2

2016-2017: 78.3

2017-2018: 96.1

2018-2019: 51.4

2019-2020: 44.9

2020-2021 (so far): 70.7

Mean: 64.8"

So they are running a little below average (mean could still come up with additional snowfall this year), but not nearly enough to offset the good times.

Honestly the horrific stretch we have has over the last 5 years (3 horrible years, 1 great year, 2 avg-slightly above avg years) in my opinion is a combination of the after effects of the record strong nino, global warming, and bad luck. I know people don’t want to hear this (myself included) but it’s likely that global warming is playing a bigger role in this horrible stretch than snow lovers in New England would like. That said, I do think that we will still have epic winters in the future, I just don’t believe they will be as common as they used to be.

[tamarack]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm .. I think the coastal plain of Maine where the deep layer vector is exiting ENE is pretty well situated to go above machine - just sayn'

Not sure where you are ... but a WSW wind under 850 mb tapping +10 C nosing over central NE in the Euro ... comes d-slope across that area . 

I wonder ...does that send rivers like the Saco over their seasonal over-flow plains ... Probably gets the Merrimack triggered come to think of it... 

We'll see -

Western Maine foothills are my area, and snowpack is generally over a foot, so less downsloping and likely some tempering of the warm at 2 meters.  And without rain I don't think this degree of thaw will bring any main stem rivers up to bankfull unless there's an ice jam.  I've yet to see a significant NNE flood from only snowmelt, though the big ones almost always have a snowmelt component.  (Some severe localized no-snow flooding from downpours/TCs does occur, as with Irene near Sugarloaf.)

[CoastalWx]

I feel like some are just calling it a season, way too early. 

[Cyclone-68]

I hope something interesting happens soon otherwise it’s waiting for dying t-storms and “close but no cigar” tropical systems time 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like some are just calling it a season, way too early. 

heh... it's hand throwing frustration - happens every year around the last week of February when indices and operational runs do this..

that said, I do see what you meant earlier with 'warm' ish guidance.  the gefs and eps raising eastern heights d-9

but like i said a while ago, folks should be on their toes through easter as a dope slap requirement

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Western Maine foothills are my area, and snowpack is generally over a foot, so less downsloping and likely some tempering of the warm at 2 meters.  And without rain I don't think this degree of thaw will bring any main stem rivers up to bankfull unless there's an ice jam.  I've yet to see a significant NNE flood from only snowmelt, though the big ones almost always have a snowmelt component.  (Some severe localized no-snow flooding from downpours/TCs does occur, as with Irene near Sugarloaf.)

Yeah I went to college at UML down here in the Merr. Valley...  It was always April thru Mother's Day ...right in those three weeks...sometimes front, sometimes aft.  But March is too soon for the Merrimack spring response per my experiences back then.  I had to stop off and see the Mother's day flood in 2006 - incredible... Seeing the water move across the Pawtucket dam without barely an elevation change was eerie knowing what that normally should look like.

Saco though... I canoed that with some college buddies a few years ago ... 2016, August. The water was really low. ... one or two points we had to exit boat and drag.  I didn't think of that as main stemmer but we were also up near Fryeburg ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I went to college at UML down here in the Merr. Valley...  It was always April thru Mother's Day ...right in those three weeks...sometimes front, sometimes aft.  But March is too soon for the Merrimack spring response per my experiences back then.  I had to stop off and see the Mother's day flood in 2006 - incredible... Seeing the water move across the Pawtucket dam without barely an elevation change was eerie knowing what that normally should look like.

Saco though... I canoed that with some college buddies a few years ago ... 2016, August. The water was really low. ... one or two points we had to exit boat and drag.  I didn't think of that as main stemmer but we were also up near Fryeburg ...

I was enrolled there during that....it was nuts.

[tamarack]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was enrolled there during that....it was nuts.

That describes 1987 here.  A messy storm at the equinox brought the pack to 20-30" with 6-8" LE in the Kennebec drainage.  A week averaging 55/33 followed by 4-7" of RA at 45-50 on 3/31-4/1 and by sunset on April 1 the pack was basically all gone.  Probably 8-12" water was put into the watercourses in less than 72 hours and Augusta reached 22.5' above flood stage.

What a bluebird day today, upper 30s, no clouds, no wind.  Tappers must be having trouble keeping up with the flow, today thru Thursday at least.

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That describes 1987 here.  A messy storm at the equinox brought the pack to 20-30" with 6-8" LE in the Kennebec drainage.  A week averaging 55/33 followed by 4-7" of RA at 45-50 on 3/31-4/1 and by sunset on April 1 the pack was basically all gone.  Probably 8-12" water was put into the watercourses in less than 72 hours and Augusta reached 22.5' above flood stage.

What a bluebird day today, upper 30s, no clouds, no wind.  Tappers must be having trouble keeping up with the flow, today thru Thursday at least.

I remember the '87 floods. I wasn't really affected by it directly, but I remember watching the news and the Merrimack raging. 

[Damage In Tolland]

She gone . We tiptoe here on out 

[Modfan2]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

She gone . We tiptoe here on out