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March 2021 Weather Discussion

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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George001
George001

The reason why people who live in eastern mass shouldn’t give up on the storm threat next week is that despite the fact that the pattern favors a large offshore ocean storm, we are pretty much stickin

George001
George001

I disagree, at least for east coast storms the Canadian is one of the best OP models, up there with the Euro and Navy. The Gfs and Icon are the garbage models not worth looking at. 

George001
George001

I have a ranking for the models that I’m somewhat familiar with   tier 1- Euro tier 2- Canadian, navy, href  tier 3- ukmet, nam, srefs, rgem tier 4- icon, kma, Jma, Brazilian

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MJO812

MJO812

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Posted
2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It was hilarious, “snow” at greater than 540 thicknesses during the day in mid-March in NYC. Lmfaoo What a joke the GFS is, worst, most wretched model ever, by far. Thank God it goes bye bye on St.Patrick’s Day

Dude your track record was horrendous this winter.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

After this week, it looks as it always has looked. Go back to work.

I thought he was talking about this winter. Once again I dont start work until 11am.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

Why must you crush my soul on a Monday morning???

I was pimping the warmth last week. Widespread 70s coming for many...at least down here. But after Friday or Saturday, party is over for a bit. Doesn't mean we won't have one or two nape days...but prolonged mild weather will wait. Also, you live at the North Pole.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure why  you  have an issue with it. Last week sucked a$$. The last thing anyone wants or needs in March is cold, dry and windy.

Yep. Last few days were terrible. If it's this cold, at least have a good pack, or snow chances. But cold and dry? Blech.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let know how much you get.

Was just reading the 3/13/18 thread. Those were the days. Just seems something is in the cards this month. Seems volatile after this dry period. Perhaps not but some signs at least.  Not Morch after a well needed above normal week.

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snowman19

snowman19

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22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Warm and boring week coming up. Too early for this warmth.

It’s time for everyone south of New England to accept reality. Winter is over for them, time to move on, wishes, hopes, dreams, Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity aren’t bringing it back, the fat lady is singing..... 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Was just reading the 3/13/18 thread. Those were the days. Just seems something is in the cards this month. Seems volatile after this dry period. Perhaps not but some signs at least.  Not Morch after a well needed above normal week.

I haven't looked in a while. Odds are we won't get completely shut out in March, though.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s time for everyone south of New England to accept reality. Winter is over for them, time to move on, wishes, hopes, dreams, Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity aren’t bringing it back, the fat lady is singing..... 

I swear Frosty The Snowman must have violated you as a child....what is it that turned you against winter?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s time for everyone south of New England to accept reality. Winter is over for them, time to move on, wishes, hopes, dreams, Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity aren’t bringing it back, the fat lady is singing..... 

Why post that here? We aren't south of New England.  After the February you had as well lol.  You are best at clicking the weenie icon

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Allsnow

Allsnow

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I swear Frosty The Snowman must have violated you as a child....what is it that turned you against winter?

We are are still waiting for his Niña February and secondary peak down here in the nyc area. He calls out JB but his track record is no better 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

We are are still waiting for his Niña February and secondary peak down here in the nyc area. He calls out JB but his track record is no better 

I can't really talk on that one....my preseason call for February was pretty bad, too. But I was on the wintry train by latter January. The SSW saved that month, otherwise it would  have been a roaster.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Mm .. I dunno about that.   "after this week, warm weather is gone..."  ? really -

I mean, it's not impossible. But I see all kinds of red flags that suggest the hemisphere could break rather rudely the other way.

D8-10 of the 00z Euro may not verify as is...but, that look with that warm dome bulging back N is a red flag correction. Not only that, the flow surrounding it is relaxing gradient ... so that does not lend to an R-wave correction going forward from there ... sort of leaving the eastern U.S. naked to La Nina/HC spring signaling given time ...proving perhaps these cold 'lies' were just seasonal growing pains.   It may even portend a warm eruption ..  

Playing devil's advocate here, but it's valid. 

Which by the way, ..that's actually GEF index supported. It is also too large/expansively anchored in that look, and is too close in my.  Those two together .. heh

Also, not sure what the EPS looks like but since the operational Euro and its EPS mean seldom part company enough to abase a general appeal ... I wonder if the EPS might be attempting to bail on the -EPO idea ...  one that frankly, I was always a bit dubious about  to begin with.

The thing is, there was only one index that supported the -EPO idea, and that was the MJO "struggling" to get into Phase 8 but... struggling may be the tell - as in, it was/is being damped.  it appears destined now to fail phase 8, but look out!  Now the models buckin' more for a phase 1.. No, what is happening is that as the mid and/or extended ranged handling gets closer in time, the model physics are more aptly detecting the resistance of the wave momentum on that side of the RMM, and thus push out any coherent wave structure into latter wave space..

In short, it means, correct toward no influence on the westerlies from the MJO.   So.. that sort of leaves me wondering if the -EPO might have been false because the MJO was anticipated to be a trigger that is really not going to be there..  Welcome to spring headaches in forecasting.

I warned of that. The La Nina hemispheric footprint and overall circulation medium is inherently in a negative interference with MJO waves attempting to propagate around that side of the RMM...    This last 10 days seems to have conned people into thinking it would finally overcome - and frankly, I'm one of those conned.  I thought perhaps because the flow relaxation ( seasonal ) was becoming subtle as observable in guidance hints and frets ...etc.., that may open a window for less wave space suppression on the left-RMM ... But,  with this failing phase 8 now pushed out to 1.. heh.  F-u.. it's not doin' shit in my mind.  Not playing that game. 

Anyway, we've been benefiting ...enabled to hide from the inevitable end of winter and the loathsome negative S.A.D. period of known as that weird summer thing   ( hahah)... But, if you wish your time and life away ... you'll find yourself at October 20th next autumn with another CC triggered weird snow job on the charts that blues up your balls good and proper for the inevitable gradient to pull out of winter...   Until then, I would not discount a rather uninspired rest of March and the notion of a balm/warm spring ... and, it may flash the hemisphere too. That lost -EPO look ... warm all of Canada some 15 or even 20 C at 850 mb ..

Or not... In fact, here's the thing... in the spirit of objective reciprocity, it could do all that in principle and be essentially correct, and still pull off a 1997 type of nested ordeal.  Until that happens I just can't sign off dodging warm the rest of the month after this week.   

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm .. I dunno about that.   "after this week, warm weather is gone..."  ? really -

I mean, it's not impossible. But I see all kinds of red flags that suggest the hemisphere could break rather rudely the other way.

D8-10 of the 00z Euro may not verify as is...but, that look with that warm dome bulging back N is a red flag correction. Not only that, the flow surrounding it is relaxing gradient ... so that does not lend to an R-wave correction going forward from there ... sort of leaving the eastern U.S. naked to La Nina/HC spring signaling given time ...proving perhaps these cold 'lies' were just seasonal growing pains.   It may even portend a warm eruption ..  

Playing devil's advocate here, but it's valid. 

Which by the way, ..that's actually GEF index supported. It is also too large/expansively anchored in that look, and is too close in my.  Those two together .. heh

Also, not sure what the EPS looks like but since the operational Euro and its EPS mean seldom part company enough to abase a general appeal ... I wonder if the EPS might be attempting to bail on the -EPO idea ...  one that frankly, I was always a bit dubious about  to begin with.

The thing is, there was only one index that supported the -EPO idea, and that was the MJO "struggling" to get into Phase 8 but... struggling may be the tell - as in, it was/is being damped.  it appears destined now to fail phase 8, but look out!  Now the models buckin' more for a phase 1.. No, what is happening is that as the mid and/or extended ranged handling gets closer in time, the model physics are more aptly detecting the resistance of the wave momentum on that side of the RMM, and thus push out any coherent wave structure into latter wave space..

In short, it means, correct toward no influence on the westerlies from the MJO.   So.. that sort of leaves me wondering if the -EPO might have been false because the MJO was anticipated to be a trigger that is really not going to be there..  Welcome to spring headaches in forecasting.

I warned of that. The La Nina hemispheric footprint and overall circulation medium is inherently in a negative interference with MJO waves attempting to propagate around that side of the RMM...    This last 10 days seems to have conned people into thinking it would finally overcome - and frankly, I'm one of those conned.  I thought perhaps because the flow relaxation ( seasonal ) was becoming subtle as observable in guidance hints and frets ...etc.., that may open a window for less wave space suppression on the left-RMM ... But,  with this failing phase 8 now pushed out to 1.. heh.  F-u.. it's not doin' shit in my mind.  Not playing that game. 

Anyway, we've been benefiting ...enabled to hide from the inevitable end of winter and the loathsome negative S.A.D. period of known as that weird summer thing   ( hahah)... But, if you wish your time and life away ... you'll find yourself at October 20th next autumn with another CC triggered weird snow job on the charts that blues up your balls good and proper for the inevitable gradient to pull out of winter...   Until then, I would not discount a rather uninspired rest of March and the notion of a balm/warm spring ... and, it may flash the hemisphere too. That lost -EPO look ... warm all of Canada some 15 or even 20 C at 850 mb ..

Or not... In fact, here's the thing... in the spirit of objective reciprocity, it could do all that in principle and be essentially correct, and still pull off a 1997 type of nested ordeal.  Until that happens I just can't sign off dodging warm the rest of the month after this week.   

 

Hope you're right. I'd rather not endure another miserable week of windy and 39 degrees, since the probability of a big snow event is so low by that point. All set with an advisory nuisance...let's be done with it.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I did say it doesn't mean we can't get in a nape day or too...and yes it is March climo. But I mean an anomalously warm stretch like what is coming up. I don't see that when you take into account climo for the time of year. 

Ha... you know me. I have no dignity or self respect or reason to exist really so I don't give a fu -

call 'em the way I see 'em.  Right now?  I see 50/50 chance of +10 or greater suddenly transforming everywhere in a warm tsunamis as the relaxation of gradient ( seasonal ) "ALLOWS" the merely erstwhile suppressed La Nina to ( pun deliberate to annoy...    wait for it - )        "SPRING"       into a coherence rather abruptly.  

Otherwise, we go back to climo with nothing imminent on the charts until such time as something materializes -  if so...  But hey, I am not without compassion - that's still 50%.  And, within that 50% lurks blue bomb as part of the climatological setting.

That's the way I see it.  Climo or above, pick -

Remove the 'Matterhorn' sized +AO that barely gets back to neutral Week 2 ( which the latter is not agreed upon either ), and the neutral positive NAO, and the neutral negative PNA ... and the La Nina ...and the HC...   then I would not be posting this stuff that no one reads because it isn't placating their winter fantasies... weeeeee

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