powderfreak Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 On 3/6/2021 at 11:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Nice rains to Maine’s there Expand That’s a temperature departure map? 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 I feel like the models typically overdo the airmasses as we get into the transition portion of the season from winter to spring. They like to keep driving the deep cold thicknesses our way, but they are usually a mirage come verification time. This week is going to be a warm week for the northern CONUS and once we get a few days of that into the initialization I wonder if the models will start sensing more of the airmass modification with Tippy's cryosphere loss. Yeah, the cold is probably overdone either way because it's absurd anomalies so it's a moot point anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/6/2021 at 11:41 PM, powderfreak said: That’s a temperature departure map? Expand I don’t think he read the legend...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/6/2021 at 11:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Nice rains to Maine’s there Expand Another drunk Saturday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 1:05 AM, Ginx snewx said: Another drunk Saturday Expand Lay the bottle down friend. There’s other ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 12:06 AM, dendrite said: I feel like the models typically overdo the airmasses as we get into the transition portion of the season from winter to spring. They like to keep driving the deep cold thicknesses our way, but they are usually a mirage come verification time. This week is going to be a warm week for the northern CONUS and once we get a few days of that into the initialization I wonder if the models will start sensing more of the airmass modification with Tippy's cryosphere loss. Yeah, the cold is probably overdone either way because it's absurd anomalies so it's a moot point anyway. Expand Nice EPO dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 1:08 AM, Ginx snewx said: Nice EPO dump Expand Yeah...I'll admit that a small percentage of my post is a wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 I see why the Mainers think it's a bad year, they're way below average while we're above here in southern New England. Jan sucked but had a pack most of Feb although not a big pack. Jan being a dud makes me look at it as a bad year but overall I guess not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 12:06 AM, dendrite said: I feel like the models typically overdo the airmasses as we get into the transition portion of the season from winter to spring. They like to keep driving the deep cold thicknesses our way, but they are usually a mirage come verification time. This week is going to be a warm week for the northern CONUS and once we get a few days of that into the initialization I wonder if the models will start sensing more of the airmass modification with Tippy's cryosphere loss. Yeah, the cold is probably overdone either way because it's absurd anomalies so it's a moot point anyway. Expand Yeah to be clear, I didn't think a Day 10-15 op output on the 18z GFS held much weight... but it's crazy to think about that solution. And great point about the models and how the conditions on the ground change. Do the models really grasp that surface feedback change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Yeah Brian and I have mentioned this before but this is entering the bust time of year in machine guidance ... the reasons he cited are on point but also question : are we still drawing on the earlier 30 year mean? The database ‘brain’ may not have the positive flop tendency ‘in mind’ my experience is use the Skew-T l-p diagrams under March Synoptics such as this and add 2 for 2-m. But you gotta determine the boundary layer depth. May not be 850mb ... 875 ... maybe 900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 15th -16th looks interesting for some winter action 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/6/2021 at 11:04 PM, SnoSki14 said: Thinking widespread 70s maybe for 2 days. It'll be a recipe for overperforming temps. Expand we live in New England, not New Jersey. widespread 70’s are unlikely for the majority of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 3:41 AM, SJonesWX said: we live in New England, not New Jersey. widespread 70’s are unlikely for the majority of New England Expand You sure? it’s been between 70 and 87 three times in the last five years between Feb and Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 4:02 AM, Typhoon Tip said: You sure? it’s been between 70 and 87 three times in the last five years between Feb and Mar. Expand Some people act as if SNE is like Alaska compared to places just south. Boston had as much snow as NYC this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 4:10 AM, SnoSki14 said: Some people act as if SNE is like Alaska compared to places just south. Boston had as much snow as NYC this year. Expand That is more of a result of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 4:51 AM, CoastalWx said: That is more of a result of the pattern. Expand 3 west miles from Boston has a foot more than Central Park. Isn't JFK in NYC. How much have they had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 3:41 AM, SJonesWX said: we live in New England, not New Jersey. widespread 70’s are unlikely for the majority of New England Expand As modeled it is possible for at least a day. At least near 70 anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 4:10 AM, SnoSki14 said: Some people act as if SNE is like Alaska compared to places just south. Boston had as much snow as NYC this year. Expand On 3/7/2021 at 4:53 AM, Ginx snewx said: 3 west miles from Boston has a foot more than Central Park. Isn't JFK in NYC. How much have they had Expand Maybe compare apples to apples. JFK LGA on the water like BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 1:24 AM, dendrite said: Yeah...I'll admit that a small percentage of my post is a wishcast. Expand Ouch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 12:03 PM, Ginx snewx said: Ouch Expand Where’s the snower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 12:03 PM, Ginx snewx said: Ouch Expand For whatever 198 hour maps are worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Yeah we’ll see come verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 12:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Where’s the snower? Expand 2 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 4:56 AM, Ginx snewx said: Maybe compare apples to apples. JFK LGA on the water like BOS. Expand Everyone has an advantage somehow. Boston has better winter's while NYC and NJ have better springs. Everyone wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 1:03 PM, dendrite said: Yeah we’ll see come verification. Expand We dump 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 2:28 PM, Ginx snewx said: We dump Expand Bring it on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Big drop coming after the rise ? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 On 3/7/2021 at 1:49 PM, MJO812 said: Expand Why post those awful maps? The mean is like 3-6” for most on every other site. Those stormvista maps are the worst, they should say cm instead of inches and then it would be more accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Euro MJO goes into 1 and then possibly into COD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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