MJO812 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah .. sure does Umm the MJO is going into the favorable phases for cold. Its going to get cold. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Sneaky cold out there today. I was freezing on the late route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 gfs tries to send us off with a long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gfs tries to send us off with a long duration event. Sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Umm the MJO is going into the favorable phases for cold. Its going to get cold. I agree. It won’t be extreme cold since climo is warmer in late March but I think it will be enough to get us one or two more blizzards before the end of the month. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 2 hours ago, George001 said: I agree. It won’t be extreme cold since climo is warmer in late March but I think it will be enough to get us one or two more blizzards before the end of the month. Okay, now you're just trolling for hot dogs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 45 minutes ago, kdxken said: Okay, now you're just trolling for hot dogs. ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Okay, now you're just trolling for hot dogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 Starting to get on the St Ides train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Will it still be a piece of shit when that happens ? 3 letter answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Guys want to run train on me? ?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: ?? Curious? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Starting to get on the St Ides train. I don't even know what this means. Malt Liquor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't even know what this means. Malt Liquor? I'm just being dumb. The ides of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 The pattern does sort of get better and better with each run on the EPS. There is certainly a window there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The pattern does sort of get better and better with each run on the EPS. There is certainly a window there. Hopefully it’s wrong and temps end up closer to normal. We engaging in spring here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hopefully it’s wrong and temps end up closer to normal. We engaging in spring here Hopefully engaging in violence after mid month. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Extrapolating the D10 Euro would offer something of siggy scenario ... with that lag back SW pinch low ... ejecting/ .. suggestive eastward, open and naked to that sudden surged -EPO hybrid ridge over the western Canada... It would set a large subsume phase ( when the N/stream comes down and takes over a S/stream that is loaded with moisture, the Earth moves and angel's weep...) type into motion thereafter... And, with large reservoir of anomalous late season cryo slabbed over S and SE Canada edging the Lakes/OV/NE ...yet, a sick baroclinic field extending roughly Indiana to Cape Cod. Everyone ends the season 120% of normal snow totals if that sets up... Unfortunately, that is D10 ... The usual suspects in this forum will be excited and should not be... If you outfitted them with an automatic genital poker that stabs a testicle whenever they get excited about a D10+12 Euro, they would get excited about the D10+12 Euro...so it is futile to caution. The GFS is also doing this - ...I'd like to see the most recent telecon layout ... The last 10 days -worth of persistence has been arguing that these operational runs, that really show no interest in moving the season on to spring - curiously enough now that we are ending the first week of March and it will rapidly be "Equinoxial" in practice here shortly, are in fact instruments of the CC denier conspiracy. ...kidding, but convention of calendar, antecedent super telecon signals, and the f'ing sun itself, are all against the operational song and dance - folks don't care so long as D10 Euro has that look I supposed. In fact, next week's warm up has finally come into a better consensus - not bad in itself considering the fragility of warmth management in guidance during a hostile time of year... 2 ... 2.5 days of warmer than normal.. Normally I'd say 70 on Thursday is a likely MOS bust with thickness over 555 and a deep layer continental warm conveyor WSW flow that is well mixed through the lower BL ...blah blah, but climo and cloud both cannot yet be discounted at D6 enough to go comfortably ... 25+ over seasonal norms just yet... Thereafter, the complexion/ .. synoptics out there .. again, it is as though the operational versions saw this warm up next week merely like an early or mid February winter warm pulse and resume winter completely oblivious to the calendar. Jokes and sardonics aside.. I'd say it is more likely we have this warm spring sort of shot across the bow next week ..then, we slip back to climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm just being dumb. The ides of March. I knew what you meant. Thought it was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Curious? He's an aspiring conductor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 It seems we can present a case in both directions.. I'm inclined to think/ .. aver even, that we've suffered neggy NAO and or suppressed/belated springs over the last several back-to-back transition seasons. Yet, in that same time, there has been an unworldy 80F episode in a February! As well, a couple of exceptionally warm weeks in different March's, and one April in the last ten years ( can't recall which) had an Easter close to 90 F... So it has been odd behavior. Two Mays in a row had winter CAA with packing pellets and snow flurried busted virga CU ...and we're talking a month ..a single month before the Solstice - no one has really emphasized that with the alternating, blinking colorized bold font that it deserves. Yet, those weird early crazy warm episodes nested early .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Curious? Bald Silver Daddy? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Starting to get on the St Ides train. Erin go braless? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 "The usual suspects in this forum will be excited and should not be... If you outfitted them with an automatic genital poker that stabs a testicle whenever they get excited about a D10+12 Euro, " Tip the S&M guy, ya never really know someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 It'll either be a massive warm cutter or slide OTS harmlessly south of most of New England. Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It'll either be a massive warm cutter or slide OTS harmlessly south of most of New England. Final call. Lol, ... the ever irrepressible 'not even exist' scenario cannot be rule out either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It'll either be a massive warm cutter or slide OTS harmlessly south of most of New England. Final call. That fits perfectly with the tone of this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 The EPS are def going with that transient EPO dump of cold air....way more than even a few cycles ago....so there's a window there first when that happens....and then likely another window of opportunity several days later as it morphs more into a western ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The EPS are def going with that transient EPO dump of cold air....way more than even a few cycles ago....so there's a window there first when that happens....and then likely another window of opportunity several days later as it morphs more into a western ridge I know I said this yesterday, but honestly each run almost gets better and better there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The EPS are def going with that transient EPO dump of cold air....way more than even a few cycles ago....so there's a window there first when that happens....and then likely another window of opportunity several days later as it morphs more into a western ridge ... ... Shouldn't easonal change be a modulating force there ? if the EPS is right about the EPO burst in the foreground, I'm not sure seasonal modulation makes that a safe assumption for afterward ... because, it is not just seasonal change that has me scratching my head. Longer termed pre-existing and ongoing super synoptic signals ( La Nina and HC ... ) don't really support it either. I've been hammering that I know ...but it's unfortunately true. It's not a metric in deterministic forecasting techniques as much as it is a "synergistic" awareness as to what can happen from that - So I guess what I'm getting at as that I don't have much confidence that we are set up for a nice winter assumption ...like this "enabling" EPS is presently fighting off those signals. Yeah, yeah...we've had blizzards in April too. I'll tell you though..it's baffling. The La Nina climate... The HC stuff... the GEFs... seeming to have telecon layout that looks at this time more like those signals ... yet, the EPS won't, and the operational runs also won't. To me that is an epic indicator battle - Taking a stab at the EPO part tho ... that looks like a direct EPS response to the MJO ...but the MJO is in negative/destructive interference trying to move momentum through Phase 8 ..and to me that's interesting. It could be the the flow relxation of seasonal change is sort of physically "allowing" more MJO exertion to begin registering - even though the winter MJO suppression was true, it may not be AS true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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