March 2021 Weather Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

No it was like a SWFE. IIRC, you guys did very well in NE MA. I think near 12"?  I suppose sneaky is subjective, but we did better than I thought we would near BOS hence sneaky. There was a good band of S+ that aligned WNW-ESE right over the city on north.  

I don't recall that one, but I wasn't as invested for a couple of seasons around '13 and '14.....was back on my game in time for the big daddy of '15.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't recall that one, but I wasn't as invested for a couple of seasons around '13 and '14.....was back on my game in time for the big daddy of '15.

12.2" Reading COOP. So you did very well.

[Typhoon Tip]

This won't get read after this first sentence - I'm sure... but I've also noticed an interesting aspect about the synoptic behavior during springs into early summers over eastern N/A ...particularly along and above the mid latitudes. 

I've called it "continental folding pattern" - personal sort of euphemism for how the fast flow [ apparently ] of the mid and higher latitudes of the Pacific are still impinging on the super-circumstance of the western N/A high country - the cordillera of the Canadian - U.S. Rockies .. This longer termed persisting fast Pac flow is force up, and then by Coriolis convention/physics it is forced it to turn right producing DVM mass loading; which creates an enhanced tendency for higher heights ... Down stream is enhancing eastern Canadian trough

It seems to me more common in spring and autumn, ...and "I think" [ hypothesis incoming] ..that is the root cause in this seasonal lag effect people are catching onto. It's why it's snowing vastly more frequently in Octobers/Novembers than the previous 100 years of climo ( prior to ... 2000 etc..), as well, why we've have so many CAA events later into April and Mays...

These cold intrusions that are out of season are belied by the ongoing AN - baseline CC signal that's also in place at all times.  We don't see them in the yearly means...We just see a year that was .. decimals, or 1 or 2 above normal... But it has snowed in f'n May, like 9 of the last 19 springs ... and probably that often in October.. I remember in 1987, on October 10...there was a strong coastal storm that dumped an impressive early season blue bomb over the Capital District/western CT ... and I could smell the snow in the air even though it only rained here in eastern Mass.. I thought that was an incredible to 'smell snow' so early in the year...  Now?  ..it's like, Halloween so where's winter.

Anyway, ..even extending this later into late May into the mid summer period...I am noticing tendencies for a 700 to 500 mb level easterly flow to set up N of Bermuda that tends to come into the M/A ...more and more. This has muted big heat from getting up here... despite some big time toppy ridge looks at times.  The big ridge around the 4th of July ..I think that was 2017, ..the one where the GFS finally had to give up on its N/stream bias ...but in doing so, went completely nuts and put up 111 F high temperatures for HFD-BED like this was sage land between the jungle and desert over NE Sierra Leone of west Africa ... no problem...  of course we only managed 94 to 97 .. Big heat,  but believe it or not... left it on the field.

That set up hybridized that usually polarward position of the Bermuda deep layer typology such that that easterly "trade" jet came into the M/A .. and muted thicknesses under those towering 600 dm ridge heights.  You could have packed 585 thicknesses in there with east, and made a buck-04 out of that but it was like synoptic-scaled taint.  No one would notice that ... It's just unknowable to anyone outside tortured realm of crushing Meteorological-nerdology ... haha. Who would at 96/75 anyway -

But in general... I've seen this in a lot of June and July's in recent years.. where you set up an anticyclonic mid level rotation tendency between NS and Bermuda, which places the real heat conveyor up into the NE Lakes and Ontario - last year's big heat over NNE in May... while DCA-PHL-NYC were un-memorably warm, is probably the better example of a kind of synoptic inverse effect of the Bermuda ridge ( CC related no doubt...) ...re-positioning in the means more N. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No it was like a SWFE. IIRC, you guys did very well in NE MA. I think near 12"?  I suppose sneaky is subjective, but we did better than I thought we would near BOS hence sneaky. There was a good band of S+ that aligned WNW-ESE right over the city on north.  

Yep, I had about 7.5" in ORH and when I got into BOS that morning for work, I couldn't believe how much they had. It was like a solid 10"+, lol. The band had just missed me to the northeast. I had a really good pack after that one though....the firehose storm had torched/compacted down a lot in the week after it, but we still had about 8-10" OTG before the 3/19/13 event. Took until early April to melt out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, I had about 7.5" in ORH and when I got into BOS that morning for work, I couldn't believe how much they had. It was like a solid 10"+, lol. The band had just missed me to the northeast. I had a really good pack after that one though....the firehose storm had torched/compacted down a lot in the week after it, but we still had about 8-10" OTG before the 3/19/13 event. Took until early April to melt out.

One of the select few instances in which the ORH rule did not work.

[Cold Miser]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Go back to work.

But, but, but.  Big Joe has spoken!

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Go back to work.

I didnt even start yet

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Go back to work.

Crime is up...how does he have so much time finding tweets and models to support his snowy persona?

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Go back to work.

First of all ...he's using N/stream biased V16 .. that was his first self-torpedoing mistake for anyone with modicum of critical thinking -

Secondly, he is a self-torpedoing mistake... 

Thirdly, .. I'm not sure about others in the greater ambit of Meteorology, climatology, ..and environmental sciences, but to me... any reliance on March 1956 is outmoded thinking - it shows a distinct lack of awareness ..or in the least evinces less so therein, to the rigors of CC and how it is changing the total 'eddy tendencies' of the hemispheric circulation envelope. 

Climate is a result of weather events/ n-terms.  Weather events are produced by eddy tendencies... 1956's weather was driven by a type of circulation (eddy tendency) that is different than today...   See where that is going?  These so-called "analogs" could be coincident numerological data sets ...

Looking at a CDC's nightly AO monitoring/prognostic source ... the AO could not imaginatively be more against a PV dislodgement event heading into mid month. I suspect the PARANORMAL model is hyper processing for the same forcing that is causing the ensemble mean to do this interim nadir - which only goes to the neutral axis btw before explosively rising through the Ides... But he's not going to filter or consider any/all that in any weighted fairness...  He's going to ply it to impress his constituency -

 

[GCWarrior]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No it was like a SWFE. IIRC, you guys did very well in NE MA. I think near 12"?  I suppose sneaky is subjective, but we did better than I thought we would near BOS hence sneaky. There was a good band of S+ that aligned WNW-ESE right over the city on north.  

Woodford did well per usual.... 17" i think up there. 

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Crime is up...how does he have so much time finding tweets and models to support his snowy persona?

I start work at 12

[Typhoon Tip]

In any event... it's going to be chillier/ish the next 3 days... Chillier than today -

It' interesting, but this cold plume anomaly that pinched off and zipped down across southern Canada and stung us yesterday ... isn't merely trundling away into oblivion. It's so deep in the troposphere that it's creating an "inverse west-based negative NAO"  - it's depth is pulling the index negative more so than the blocking heights in the other direction. 

The low its self is anchoring and doing a fuji-wara around some kind of synoptic Lagrangian point over the lower Maritimes, and as that happens it will re-situate CAA/ reinvigorate it for a day...day and half, keeping us locked in a dry "super duper entertaining and soothing" cryo-flow out of the frozen tundra of eastern Canada...

Aren't you all glad you pined for winter to keep going ?   ....the gods of the atmosphere tried sooo hard to placate your dreams but could only get you so far - and now...this is what you get.  LOL.. 

D6 ... for spring enthusiasts... hard to say if that's "no turning back" or if the distant range does drive a regressed appeal for while...  My guess is that will happen just by common sense over where in the hell we are located in the geography... 

[Great Snow 1717]

47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Crime is up...how does he have so much time finding tweets and models to support his snowy persona?

C'mon man, just stop and show some respect for law enforcement....he caught a suspect on tuesday in the middle of a B & E....

[Damage In Tolland]

With snow season done.. great day to get out there and wash your vehicles,, dry them off with a towel , windex the windows, shine on the tires, clean all that salt grime and brake dust off the rims, wipe off the film on the inside of the windows , wipe off the dash and other inside areas, vacuum out all the grit and salt off the floors. LFG!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With snow season done.. great day to get out there and wash your vehicles,, dry them off with a towel , windex the windows, shine on the tires, clean all that salt grime and brake dust off the rims, wipe off the film on the inside of the windows , wipe off the dash and other inside areas, vacuum out all the grit and salt off the floors. LFG!

OCD

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With snow season done.. great day to get out there and wash your vehicles,, dry them off with a towel , windex the windows, shine on the tires, clean all that salt grime and brake dust off the rims, wipe off the film on the inside of the windows , wipe off the dash and other inside areas, vacuum out all the grit and salt off the floors. LFG!

Ooooh ha-ho-ho-ho ... so you're adMITting it's napey now -

 

[ORH_wxman]

Snowpack absolutely rotting/decaying/sublimating under the March sun. It's useless when it gets this bad. I can walk on top of it without sinking in. It had become littered with debris too after the big wind a couple nights ago/yesterday. The playhouse in the back yard was once buried above the color demarcation from dark brown to tan.

 

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Snowpack absolutely rotting/decaying/sublimating under the March sun. It's useless when it gets this bad. I can walk on top of it without sinking in. It had become littered with debris too after the big wind a couple nights ago/yesterday. The playhouse in the back yard was once buried above the color demarcation from dark brown to tan.

 

Better to have snow pack thank no snow pack at all!

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

OCD

I could never ride in your car 

[8611Blizz]

Personally since the outdoor work starts picking up at this time of year anything in the 50s is fine.

Snow after st pats is just annoying unless it's half a.foot or more.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ooooh ha-ho-ho-ho ... so you're adMITting it's napey now -

 

It’s not naperiffic as it’s very windy and 38, but it’s warm enough to get out and clean . What I am admitting is snow season over 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Better to have snow pack thank no snow pack at all!

I almost always agree, but in this case I'm kind of 50/50 on it. It's become pretty ugly and not conductive for the kids to do anything with.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not naperiffic as it’s very windy and 38, but it’s warm enough to get out and clean . What I am admitting is snow season over 

Probably ... that's the course of least regret... I would not [ personally ] go so far as declaring mortality on winter but that's me.

Obviously you/we ...all should keep in mind and do ( it is hoped..) that even an inferno spring can nest a juggernaut ...even into April's ... 

It is a matter of probability, year to year.  This year?  Probability is sloped against substantive snow occurring due to the back-ground antecedent ... ambrosia of signals that I've grown tired or reiterating and won't ... It's not "one of those 1984" spring vibes in that sense, nor in the hemispheric observable indicators...

Folks should also keep in mind that even if next weeks' warm up proves just that and only that, and we are heading back into some sort of regressed cooler appeal to the N/A synoptics for a another stint, it will have to be modulating/off-setting warm just by pure increasing spring sun... 

Indirectly related :  The models - I have noticed - tend to "forget" the seasonal migration beyond ... D6 or so.. .tending to wash it out and receded back to a colder look if the pattern leading was already cold..  It's like they fight it by data scrubbing over the processing as though it is error-checked - lol.. ..or don't have enough of a differential awareness into the super-synoptic forcing of seasonal change - interesting..

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS bros pretty balmy next week as well. Excited for some warm temps and the start of lawn and garden season. 

[TalcottWx]

OT but here's some pics of Carson Beach on this day during winter 2015

[Baroclinic Zone]

49F.  Beautiful out.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS bros pretty balmy next week as well. Excited for some warm temps and the start of lawn and garden season. 

You and me both... it's been a crushing winter ( for me personally...) and just the change in environment - any change is good at this point for me frankly.  I don't normally get affected by sensible weather stuff.. or the modeling noise, but the former personal stuff is making this experience rather unique.

Seeing no white and tinting green in lawn... hell, maybe even swell a few Forsythia shrub buds - is that too much to ask?  ...begging the Dickensian ward whipper ...  Those might be welcoming as symbolic to better times.

It really has not been a very entertaining meteorological winter, so not much hope ...none of these events left me ultimately very inspired. Although the 30" CSI band from N or ALB to mid NH was point fantastic.   Otherwise, this has been a drag slog of rationalized bs to get through ... and I know I may be in the minority but I do love summer, ...tracking heat...tracking convection. These are equally as interesting to me as deep winter fair ...

The last thing my personal druthers either wants nor requires at this point is protracting abysmal cold weather that only placates nostalgia threads of storms of spring yore, but won't deliver shit out the window.  ...  You know, in a separate texting thread a Met buddy referred to yesterday as a "bottom 10 day - only in New England can a gem sky of irradient life giving sun manage to pull off a piece of shit afternoon "   Lol ..funny

[CoastalWx]

I'd take a pack that's good enough to have winter fun in over bare ground for sure. But at this stage with nothing imminent, I'll take any nice weather. 

[CoastalWx]

Just piles and the real shady yards with some snow. Honestly surprised that even lasted. 

[MJOatleast7]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This won't get read after this first sentence - I'm sure... but I've also noticed an interesting aspect about the synoptic behavior during springs into early summers over eastern N/A ...particularly along and above the mid latitudes. 

I've called it "continental folding pattern" - personal sort of euphemism for how the fast flow [ apparently ] of the mid and higher latitudes of the Pacific are still impinging on the super-circumstance of the western N/A high country - the cordillera of the Canadian - U.S. Rockies .. This longer termed persisting fast Pac flow is force up, and then by Coriolis convention/physics it is forced it to turn right producing DVM mass loading; which creates an enhanced tendency for higher heights ... Down stream is enhancing eastern Canadian trough

It seems to me more common in spring and autumn, ...and "I think" [ hypothesis incoming] ..that is the root cause in this seasonal lag effect people are catching onto. It's why it's snowing vastly more frequently in Octobers/Novembers than the previous 100 years of climo ( prior to ... 2000 etc..), as well, why we've have so many CAA events later into April and Mays...

These cold intrusions that are out of season are belied by the ongoing AN - baseline CC signal that's also in place at all times.  We don't see them in the yearly means...We just see a year that was .. decimals, or 1 or 2 above normal... But it has snowed in f'n May, like 9 of the last 19 springs ... and probably that often in October.. I remember in 1987, on October 10...there was a strong coastal storm that dumped an impressive early season blue bomb over the Capital District/western CT ... and I could smell the snow in the air even though it only rained here in eastern Mass.. I thought that was an incredible to 'smell snow' so early in the year...  Now?  ..it's like, Halloween so where's winter.

Anyway, ..even extending this later into late May into the mid summer period...I am noticing tendencies for a 700 to 500 mb level easterly flow to set up N of Bermuda that tends to come into the M/A ...more and more. This has muted big heat from getting up here... despite some big time toppy ridge looks at times.  The big ridge around the 4th of July ..I think that was 2017, ..the one where the GFS finally had to give up on its N/stream bias ...but in doing so, went completely nuts and put up 111 F high temperatures for HFD-BED like this was sage land between the jungle and desert over NE Sierra Leone of west Africa ... no problem...  of course we only managed 94 to 97 .. Big heat,  but believe it or not... left it on the field.

That set up hybridized that usually polarward position of the Bermuda deep layer typology such that that easterly "trade" jet came into the M/A .. and muted thicknesses under those towering 600 dm ridge heights.  You could have packed 585 thicknesses in there with east, and made a buck-04 out of that but it was like synoptic-scaled taint.  No one would notice that ... It's just unknowable to anyone outside tortured realm of crushing Meteorological-nerdology ... haha. Who would at 96/75 anyway -

But in general... I've seen this in a lot of June and July's in recent years.. where you set up an anticyclonic mid level rotation tendency between NS and Bermuda, which places the real heat conveyor up into the NE Lakes and Ontario - last year's big heat over NNE in May... while DCA-PHL-NYC were un-memorably warm, is probably the better example of a kind of synoptic inverse effect of the Bermuda ridge ( CC related no doubt...) ...re-positioning in the means more N. 

So as the HC expands north (CC)do you think it’ll eventually put E NE in the trade wind belt in the summer? Says the weather geek looking for his first landfalling TC from the *east* like in the Caribbean...Probably still 50 years or so from that happening.