Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro and Para almost pulled it off Those aren't even close. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I just can't think of any HWW on NW flow. Even if we did tickle 50 kt I'm not sure impacts would even be that widespread. There’s a ton of them in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Amazing variation between SNE vs NYC metro this season. Here the winter is a solid B/B+ with well above normal snows, 4 weeks of snow cover, BN Feb temps. Nice December storm. Lack of 50+ temperatures. Negatives are a sucky January with AN temps Dec & Jan. If temps were a little colder with a good Jan storm then it would be an easy A- or better. The only true A/A+ seasons since 2000 would be 02/03 and 09/10. 13/14 & 14/15 are B+/A- 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 are my only two A+ since 2000. 2010-2011 is an A....A+ is a rare bird. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can think of some. We had a good one back in late Feb 2019 I believe. That was a nasty one. Ironically we had one last year on W-SW flow in late Feb. I could see a lot of 45kt stuff tonight. I feel like I remember a good one in 2006 as well...Feb maybe? I think it hit upstate NY harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Those aren't even close. Closer to Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a ton of them in SNE There really aren't though. You get plenty of HWWs issued on NW flow, but actual verification of them is extremely rare. It's just hard to do around here due to the combination of it's hard to create a strong LLJ when you're well mixed and our infrastructure (even CT's) is hardier to NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 I welcome you all to Morch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 28 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Those aren't even close. Actually they are Still plenty of time but whoever thinks winter is over needs a drink. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 It would be nice if the both of you would have made a comparison instead of posting gibberish. Here was the 12z run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Actually they are Still plenty of time but whoever thinks winter is over needs a drink. Most likely it's over for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2021 Author Share Posted March 1, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Actually they are Still plenty of time but whoever thinks winter is over needs a drink. Coming off the high from the CPAC? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It would be nice if the both of you would have made a comparison instead of posting gibberish. Here was the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Ok.. So, I will first say ( before I get comments from people who don't read before they comment ), a MET in CT said that the storm for the weekend is offshore, BUT... Things can change as we have 5-7 days until the event. Also, as you are all aware of ( or, for those of you who fell and bumped your heads ), things can and will change within 5-7 days. Let's hold our composure and see what happens by mid week. Things can go either way ( there is clearly not a definite direction on the storm for the weekend ). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Ok.. So, I will first say ( before I get comments from people who don't read before they comment ), a MET in CT said that the storm for the weekend is offshore, BUT... Things can change as we have 5-7 days until the event. Also, as you are all aware of ( or, for those of you who fell and bumped your heads ), things can and will change within 5-7 days. Let's hold our composure and see what happens by mid week. Things can go either way ( there is clearly not a definite direction on the storm for the weekend ). There is almost no room for the storm to get far enough west in the longwave pattern. Everything would have to break right.....plausible? Sure. Extremely unlikely? Also true. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2021 Author Share Posted March 1, 2021 There might be a 5% chance it comes far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Ok.. So, I will first say ( before I get comments from people who don't read before they comment ), a MET in CT said that the storm for the weekend is offshore, BUT... Things can change as we have 5-7 days until the event. Also, as you are all aware of ( or, for those of you who fell and bumped your heads ), things can and will change within 5-7 days. Let's hold our composure and see what happens by mid week. Things can go either way ( there is clearly not a definite direction on the storm for the weekend ). Which do you prefer, New Britain, Old Britain, or Great Britain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: There might be a 5% chance it comes for enough west. And even if it does, I'd probably not be very interested if I was in the western half of New England. You'd want to be in downeast maine first and then maybe E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: And even if it does, I'd probably not be very interested if I was in the western half of New England. You'd want to be in downeast maine first and then maybe E MA. I'd want to be in the month of May. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2021 Author Share Posted March 1, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd want to be in the month of May. Like I said, put me in a coma until Memorial Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 39 minutes ago, dendrite said: Closer to Bermuda. Wish we were there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Like I said, put me in a coma until Memorial Day. This time of the year sucks for us folks. There is nothing worse. Weeks of fog and rain and mist. Get ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It would be nice if the both of you would have made a comparison instead of posting gibberish. Here was the 12z run. Comparison for what? Storm isn't even remotely close to to even coming close. I'll let you carry on hyperventilating over model runs every 6hrs hallucinating on "trends" that have no sensible change in weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Don't know if it was OceanSt posted this on the Gray NWS FB page but I never thought about this. Great graphic. Makes total sense met. winter isn't on the same date across the country. Areas near water will lag. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 56 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Those aren't even close. As a snap shot ? no .. obviously looking at that, it's well enough seawards to not matter. The risk assessing there at 162 hours out ... heh, it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There might be a 5% chance it comes far enough west. It ain't happening Ant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 My 1/5 chance from two days ago is now like 1/20. You need the ridge/trough placements to be off by several hundreds of miles 5/6 days out. Pulling for a miracle but you probably need to see a lot more improvement by 12z today or it's ova Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Today’s 50’s vanished faster than a box of donuts in Ant’s police cruiser . Poor Tip can’t catch a nape 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 It's already 47° here. Sweet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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