WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, George001 said: I know we are 7-8 days out, that’s why I said I’m not writing off the storm. However it’s important to be realistic, when one of the best models we have goes from a near miss with a strong storm just offshore to not even having a low that’s not a shift that can just be ignored. Maybe the Canadian picked up on something it didn’t before, but it could also just be an off run. Also you are wrong about the navy, it’s actually a great model if it’s used correctly. I strongly disagree with what you are saying about the navy. The navy has done a great job with catching onto real threats (2/1/21) and not biting on phantom threats (late jan). The navy does have a southeast bias, but it’s a useful tool. Its a great model in the mid-long range in identifying real vs fantasy storm threats. When the navy is on board for a big storm, even when other guidance is out to sea often it is picking up on something and it is a mistake to ignore that. It is usually saying that the other guidance is wrong and will correct west. On phantom threats, the navy often doesn’t even have a low. On the other hand the gfs, a model that many live and die by is absolutely horrible, it doesn’t even have a consistent bias, it’s just all over the place. It’s absolutely horrible at identifying patterns in the long range, and jumps around in the short range more than any other model. It’s honestly not even worth looking at, I personally don’t use it at all when making my forecasts. When my forecasts bust, if anything it’s because I’m not weighting the navy heavily enough if anything. Lol! Ok George. You’ll wise up eventually. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 0z GFS says in my hood after Wednesday we don't see another 40°F reading until the following Wednesday, with most days not getting above freezing. Too bad there is zero QPF. Back to cold and dry January scenario. Of course we will warm to the 50's thereafter with some QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: 0z GFS says in my hood after Wednesday we don't see another 40°F reading until the following Wednesday, with most days not getting above freezing. Too bad there is zero QPF. Back to cold and dry January scenario. Of course we will warm to the 50's thereafter with some QPF. Why look and frustrate yourself? Just assume it's over and hope to be pleasantly suprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I told Tip I’m on board with a 15F blizzard and then 70F 3-4 days later. Let’s lock it in. that would be exciting. 15F in Holliston and 31F here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2021 Author Share Posted February 28, 2021 Winter ends on a quiet note I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Cold n dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winter ends on a quiet note I guess. NAO blocking is squashing this storm on the models. Horrible. Hopefully its wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Birds are much more prevalent and noticeable now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Birds are much more prevalent and noticeable now. The ones who have been around have also changed their song. Very noticeable the last two weeks. They know. Also, we saw a small insect crawling around on the snow when we were walking the dog yesterday. It was below freezing and snowing but this bug was doing it’s thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winter ends on a quiet note I guess. I am at peace with it. Solid B- winter with above average snowfall when NINA was supposed to wreck Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I am at peace with it. Solid B- winter with above average snowfall when NINA was supposed to wreck Feb. B here We might have a chance once the NAO shoots back positive. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Birds are much more prevalent and noticeable now. 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The ones who have been around have also changed their song. Very noticeable the last two weeks. Same up here. It was quite abrupt. One day I was outside and there was much more bird chatter and the songs had changed. Im glad you guys mentioned something. The NNE thread, they are still posting about deep deep winter. Yes, it's still winter in NNE, but the changes are noticeable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Saw discussion in the NNE thread about longest run of 12 plus pack. 57 days in 2015 and 53 in 2011 here. A plus epic winters feature long deep packs. Using 8 inches as pack 2001 led the way with 80 followed by 2003 with 74. Using 6 inch pack 2003 tops the list with 87 followed by 2005 and 01 with 86. The longest continously pack of at least one inch was 05 with 107 followed by 78 with 106, 1987 was a sneaky good year with 97. This is from the nearby coop at North Foster since 1976. Places like ORH of course blow that away but airports don't keep depth records anymore which sucks. Blue Hill had 70 days of 12 plus in 1948 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Saw discussion in the NNE thread about longest run of 12 plus pack. 57 days in 2015 and 53 in 2011 here. A plus epic winters feature long deep packs. Using 8 inches as pack 2001 led the way with 80 followed by 2003 with 74. Using 6 inch pack 2003 tops the list with 87 followed by 2005 and 01 with 86. The longest continously pack of at least one inch was 05 with 107 followed by 78 with 106, 1987 was a sneaky good year with 97. This is from the nearby coop at North Foster since 1976. Places like ORH of course blow that away but airports don't keep depth records anymore which sucks. Blue Hill had 70 days of 12 plus in 1948 Do you have a nice chart for CON in 07-08? I know they went Dec thru Apr with 12”+. What about 24”+? I think they peaked at 45” in March. Seems high considering I peaked at 43”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2021 Author Share Posted February 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Saw discussion in the NNE thread about longest run of 12 plus pack. 57 days in 2015 and 53 in 2011 here. A plus epic winters feature long deep packs. Using 8 inches as pack 2001 led the way with 80 followed by 2003 with 74. Using 6 inch pack 2003 tops the list with 87 followed by 2005 and 01 with 86. The longest continously pack of at least one inch was 05 with 107 followed by 78 with 106, 1987 was a sneaky good year with 97. This is from the nearby coop at North Foster since 1976. Places like ORH of course blow that away but airports don't keep depth records anymore which sucks. Blue Hill had 70 days of 12 plus in 1948 I had to look at the Hingham numbers which is right near the water. 57 days in 2015 for 12”+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Do you have a nice chart for CON in 07-08? I know they went Dec thru Apr with 12”+. What about 24”+? I think they peaked at 45” in March. Seems high considering I peaked at 43”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Do you have a nice chart for CON in 07-08? I know they went Dec thru Apr with 12”+. What about 24”+? I think they peaked at 45” in March. Seems high considering I peaked at 43”. 115 days above 12" that year, 57! above 24". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: 115 days above 12" that year, 57! above 24". Yeah it was pretty insane. Thanks guys. Wish I could find a way into my old crashed HDD to get my old data. FML for not backing it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah it was pretty insane. Thanks guys. Wish I could find a way into my old crashed HDD to get my old data. FML for not backing it up. Crazy stat and I didn't realize what a good year 87 was Sunapee had 61 days above 40 inches. I need to go back and look at 87. It seems to have left my memory. I remember the Jan storms but that is it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 44 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I am at peace with it. Solid B- winter with above average snowfall when NINA was supposed to wreck Feb. Yea B-. Avg snow and a crap Jan but a great 20 day memorable stretch this month offset it a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2021 Author Share Posted February 28, 2021 I’ll give it a C. A few good events, but the Grinch, shitty January, and the 2/1 hose job definitely hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2021 Author Share Posted February 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Since it’s not over until March wraps up I will grade by quarters. Dec B plus. Jan F Feb A - March TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Since it’s not over until March wraps up I will grade by quarters. Dec B plus. Jan F Feb A - March TBD Yeah deep winter is over but snow chances probably aren’t. Another warning criteria storm could change the grade for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2021 Author Share Posted February 28, 2021 May go lower if March doesn’t bring anything. Hopefully it does, but the look is anything but snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Going on 38 straight days of 12"+ here, not much in the pipeline so will be dwindling. Grinch takes away A or A+ here, but I would go solid A-. Top 3 all timer in DEC and pretty consistent and above normal snowfall and snow cover. If March is totally punted, maybe down to B+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 D- at this point. Above normal temps and below normal snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Looks like gusts to 50 with Arctic front. Haven't had one of those in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 We have a chance next weekend with the NAO briefly going negative, AO briefly going negative and PNA going slightly positive for a brief time. Not sure if this month will be warm. Gfs and gefs has caved to the Euro with the MJO going into 8 and 1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now