Fozz Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 What will it actually take to get into a pattern that favors storms and precip? GEFS extended looks bone dry for the whole month, though I have no idea how accurate it is. I keep hearing about shorter wavelengths in March, or that teleconnections aren’t as important. Is there a particular reason why the guidance shows such an ugly precip hole over much of New England? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Been busy with work. Enjoying the warmer weather. Kind of worried about next week's cold weather. I'm not trying to deliver packages in that weather. Thought I escaped it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Been busy with work. Enjoying the warmer weather. Kind of worried about next week's cold weather. I'm not trying to deliver packages in that weather. Thought I escaped it. Your’re 24 yes old and 295lbs. I think you’ll make it in a day of temps in the 20’s 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 33 minutes ago, Fozz said: What will it actually take to get into a pattern that favors storms and precip? GEFS extended looks bone dry for the whole month, though I have no idea how accurate it is. I keep hearing about shorter wavelengths in March, or that teleconnections aren’t as important. Is there a particular reason why the guidance shows such an ugly precip hole over much of New England? It’s not a good pattern for lots of rapid-fire shortwaves and storms. The fact wavelengths are shortening some just means it’s a little easier to sneak something in within an ugly regime. The teleconnectors might be less influential than mid-winter in March, but they still matter. If we get a blocky Canada around mid-month and beyond, then things could get a little more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Your’re 24 yes old and 295lbs. I think you’ll make it in a day of temps in the 20’s Make sure you bundle up on Tuesday junior..... Lol I've lost 20 pounds in 2 months. I actually took the job to load weight so I'm very happy. The gains I've tracked via my whoop fitness tracker have been cool. Back when it snowed a few weeks ago, made the mistake of not wearing gloves on some of the colder days. Feeling in my fingertips is just coming back lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's gonna be a big one. MJO now solidly expected to be in phase 8 too. When models start sniffing something out 7+ days then you know it'll be significant. Sounds a bit like your impetus is solely in the MJO ?? I'd be leery of that - There's an ambrosia or reasons why an MJO anywhere from late phase 7 to early phase 2 around the RMM, would mean less for us here. The MJO does not drive specific events, firstly. I don't know what your specific level of education/experience/wisdom is, so taking fwiw - it sounds like you're intimating: MJO = big one Primer: MJO is a pattern enhancer. Crucially, it is dependent upon the surrounding hemispheric mode or it cannot really readily enhance. The erstwhile hemispheric circumstance has been out of phase with MJOs on the left side of the RMM as a seasonal-scaled issue. What that means is that any wave presentation currently displayed in that left region, are probably being damped ... In other words, if the surrounding hemispheric mode was supporting, it would be much larger and coherent as a curved trajectory around the side of the RMM. In short, because it is "struggling" in that sense, it's likely not really as able to enhance the pattern. More bark then bite - This is called "destructive" interference. This is actually been the case all season long .. where for some reason, the wave "wants" ( for simplistic brevity...) to be emerging on the left side, but the La Nina ( and probably HC expansion stuff ) are a hemisphere perpetually 'canceling it out'. Notice, we have seen almost no emerging wave strength over the last Phase 2 - 5/6 ranges, which is actually a "constructive" interference? It is interesting that there is no wave attempt/ .. origin over on that side ( as a separate matter ) Trying to sense how destructive vs constructive interference will augment the hemisphere is - to put it lightly - a bit of an artistic undertaking. But, when momentum is struggling to meet a measured value, that tends to imply that the achievement is being offset by destructive interference - so it likely doesn't represent much forcing. The other aspect is the apparent wave shortening and gradient weakening ... that means that any forcing that could remain...may get lost in the obscuring entropy of that breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Models are starting to show more blocking. Keep an eye on this period. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Man, gfs JUST missed having the full fledged phase 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Man, gfs JUST missed having the full fledged phase Para 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Hey now, I said we slash highs by 20+ degrees and gusts to 35+ yesterday. It does look a little squally from ALY into BOX's CWA on the tip of that TPV. Looks like another cold afternoon spoiled by a cheap evening max - perhaps 34 when I record Monday evening and 18 for the Tuesday PM high. then upper 30s the next day. Cold snaps almost always are shorter at this part of winter even if lowest temps are equal. This winter's cold has already been at March-length; maybe we can get 12-hour cold blasts with same-day mild-up later next month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Cmc is also west from 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Whoa heck of an interesting 12z suite so far 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Whoa heck of an interesting 12z suite so far Very cold verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Been quietly admiring the down playing of that cold shot and squalls by NWS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 Might have to lock in some violence on the para. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Just now, OceanStWx said: Nice, maybe we glad we live here as well? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Might have to lock in some violence on the para. The only thing I have left to decide today is whether I use a 100% blend or just a 90/10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Been awhile since we had a good cold front come in with heavy squalls. i think it was 94 we got a few, that was a great year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice, maybe we glad we live here as well? My Ariens needs one more pass on the driveway, I'm tired of scraping these 1-2 events off before it ices up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The only thing I have left to decide today is whether I use a 100% blend or just a 90/10. I’d use 100% para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: My Ariens needs one more pass on the driveway, I'm tired of scraping these 1-2 events off before it ices up. Just had mine hauled away to get serviced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: My Ariens needs one more pass on the driveway, I'm tired of scraping these 1-2 events off before it ices up. I was wondering what those upslope guys do when it snows 1-2 inches every other day, snow blow or a quick shovel. I'd rather get it all once and blow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I was wondering what those upslope guys do when it snows 1-2 inches every other day, snow blow or a quick shovel. I'd rather get it all once and blow it. I mean at the moment my 2.5 year old loves to go out and "shovel" so it kills an hour and gets him outside. But I can also throw my headphones in and take a beer outside for an hour when I snowblow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: My Ariens needs one more pass on the driveway, I'm tired of scraping these 1-2 events off before it ices up. Just flipped to ice pellets here after 1.5" of snow. Models did great in my area and good forecast from Gray. I had posted on the NNE page that other than the Dec storm which gave me 2 feet I have not had one storm over 3.5" this season. Clawed my way up to 60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: OTS for here as portrayed. At least it would be something with some meat to track, instead of these little near-nothings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Been awhile since we had a good cold front come in with heavy squalls. i think it was 94 we got a few, that was a great year. I can remember squalls in October of years passed that dropped a quick inch or two. Playing soccer on the Hill at David Prouty in Spencer late season was always brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Things look awful. It’s looks cold (for time of year)and storm less How 'bout now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 March 13, 2018 anyone? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Not getting swept away in this ...it's just as is, this GFS has motioned distinctly toward the 'subsume' model phasing... Getting to this set up at 162 hours in a slackening gradient -- > increasing entropy, is a bit of an undertaking so we'll see. Am aware that it is joined by a GGEM "trend" ... It's in that D6-9 window I was mentioning early so from where I'm sitting it bears watching.. Basically animating that above.. the polar arm/oval above Michigan rotates into/ .. captures the southern transiting SW ... notice the gap in teh 582 to 576 height contouring over Miami - that's critical ...because the flow relaxation is not asborbing that southern system. It's synergy - a stronger southern system injects more PWAT air/ dynamics for/when the N/ stream captures it then explodes in the classical model of how those work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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