Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 I dunno.. .thing is, that could tone it down by 15 deg and still be exotically deep and equally as annoying - assuming the latter is what Gaia's really after.. The Euro did carry a similar cold shot at least once in recent runs and considering we're not really in the Euro's wheel house ... It may all end up that we get a 32 F high and two cold nights, interrupting some AN afternoons out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nao going negative This is believeable Only for a few days. Then the GFS breaks it down and goes very + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Enjoy For a few days now, the global schemes have all shown the likelihood of surge of bitter cold moving into southeastern Canada during early March. It is not hard to envision a intensifying Maritimes low combining with a sharpening trough sweeping across southeastern Canada driving a piece of the bitter air mass south into New England. Whether or not the pattern across southeastern CT and the Maritimes allows it to happen is very uncertain. Obviously at this time frame, you bet against it. But I think there is a good chance a bitter cold air mass will indeed move into southeastern Canada. Whether or not it can be propelled southward into New England is an open question. But I certainly would not dismiss it; especially for portions of Northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 hour ago, radarman said: peach trees ftl... the fact that feb has been chilly may mitigate damage. A few years ago one of these March cold shots ruined the crop. The closest decent peach harvest that year was S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Enjoy Oh how i wish this would verify so i can listen to all the pissing by folks. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: How cold was Will in that picture of him as a lil weenie in the sled? It was really cold for the date but in absolute terms, not that cold. Prob mid 20s. It was the April 1982 blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: HC is not the primary reason why we had a couple of subpar winters, climo is. We don't avg 80" of snow....never have, and probably never will. What he is saying is valid, but its not the reason that we don't have a blockbuster winter every season. Yes i understand. Maybe the way I typed that came across subpar haha. I totally agree on climo. Where I live and work we're already at average for the year. That's the reason I mentioned the VERY good winters...I see many that are quite a bit younger than me are very spoiled by blockbuster winters. I've lived through many bad years. I think what I'm interested in most is IF the HC speculation could be somewhat correct regarding east coast storm development? Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 21 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The trend has been for late starting winters or non starting winters. For some maybe, however I am basically at my average for snowfall this season, so is it a non winter? Not for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: The 06z operational GFS is the first run of that particular model that has offered any demonstration at all that spatially fits it's own CPC telecon spread - particularly beyond D7..8. Firstly, that weird synoptic "tucking" event at 500 mb up there over eastern Ontario. It was dumped by the 00z Euro .. the previous cycle, 12z yesterday had it, 00z she gone. Meanwhile, the GFS and most GEF members at 00z really are absurdly deep with that feature (March 2nd). We are still deep enough inside 1790 through 1980 winter climatology and so deeper anomalies in general are okay ... Not sure that requires 500 mb heights at 468 dm over the GOM... height depths seldom found in Antarctica - Pretty solid likeliness that is the GFS not having any limitations at all in its ability to lower heights as an ongoing attempt by NCEP to offset global warming utilizing fake modeling. Kidding...but jesus Christ. It does that everywhere ..all scales, dimensions, intents and purpose, in the ongoing maelstrom of atmospheric fluidity. It's egregious... I don't want any V16 ... in fact, I don't want GFS, anymore ... I'm sick of it. For those of us of summer enthusiasm ..it will ruin summer if one spends any time using it during the warm season. Last year, it started about 10 days after the Solstice, driving 300 hour range autumn patterns in July.. It's cold bias is so bad ... just don't f'ing run the model beyond 48 hours until you've figured this shit out... please - Here's another aspect about the GFS based upon multiple seasons of persistence and thus, easy prediction. As we work our way into spring ... there are going to be times when the flow relaxes more and ridging becomes apparent across mid and lower latitudes of the continent in all guidance ... These period "should" be evocative of joy and nape dreams of euphoria for ah, more "normal" seasonal -seeking/guided individuals ( to which, ... NO ONE in this social media represents, of course hahaha )... But nope ... schmuck actually chooses to look at the GFS's surface synoptic... Ooh, and their day was going so good up until that point... when their eyes get a big load of that big pasty ass of a surface high pressure hanging over the log the 50th parallel across S Canada Canada. Sorry just having fun.. .but, that flow out there beyond 8 ... shows that buttocks high pressure tendency - built it, but it shows a lot of relaxed milder thickness and crumbled homogeneous baroclinic tendencies to the layout. The latter is at least encouraging. That seems to also agree a bit with the Euros post D8 ... Normally one would be two tokes into a crack pipe blowjob to ever infer much from either guidance' D8 ..entering spring migraine no less, but both seems to nod to the highly concertted/continuity of the +AO/+NAO/-PNA ... I almost wonder if that period may emerge - given time - with more of a warm push... we'll see - Oh my, how do I respond to this novel haha. I hear you on the fake news/science thing. I mean isn't the beginning of any science the fact that... I don't know so lets figure it out? (and no it doesn't get figured in a press conference) It's just an interesting phenomenon that you've proposed and needs to be studied. Too many young ones have got used to blockbuster winters in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Thought last night's 00z euro was close to something. If the precedent ULL was a bit slower probably would have forced the main wave a bit farther S. PNA ridge trying to spike a bit which could help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 So the new improved GFS is a disaster for a model. Perfect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 At least the goofus has been backing off on the cold next week. It'll be cold either way for a couple of days, but likely nothing exotic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: So the new improved GFS is a disaster for a model. Perfect Put it with the Ukie and shoot it to the sun as far as I’m concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: At least the goofus has been backing off on the cold next week. It'll be cold either way for a couple of days, but likely nothing exotic. Yeah I guess we shouldn’t be shocked it backed off -33C at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah I guess we shouldn’t be shocked it backed off -33C at 850 Time to moderate it even more. I'll be happy when it verifies at -15C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Time to moderate it even more. I'll be happy when it verifies at -15C. Feels nice out there. Went for a jog and it’s nice just going in a sweat shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 I'm sure most would have preferred if you had on some sweat pants too............... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 When Ants doesn’t post.. no snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm sure most would have preferred if you had on some sweat pants too............... That’s only when I’m snow blowing the driveway. Especially the snow banks, the to and fro motion really rocks it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: When Ants doesn’t post.. no snow chances Or it’s Antifa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: When Ants doesn’t post.. no snow chances So nothing out at day 10-15 then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Stick a pitchfork in this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s only when I’m snow blowing the driveway. Especially the snow banks, the to and fro motion really rocks it. Be very careful cleaning out the “blower”...which also adds a whole new dimension to the term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Prob gonna have a chance or two in the first week of March if EPS is right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Stick a pitchfork in this Winter. Good luck with that. If wishes were dishes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob gonna have a chance or two in the first week of March if EPS is right. Yeah that hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Good luck with that. If wishes were dishes... Good luck with widespread below 0F temps in SNE in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2021 Author Share Posted February 24, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Good luck with widespread below 0F temps in SNE in March That's not happening, but we may sneaky some winter chances in across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: That's not happening, but we may sneaky some winter chances in across the area. Any my post didn't refute that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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