Edubbs83 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Flurries this morning on and off here on north shore of LI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Morning thoughts... After a few widely scattered snow flurries, today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 36° Newark: 37° Philadelphia: 38° Tomorrow will be fair and a bit milder. Next week will likely see the arrival of the warmest weather so far this season. Cooler weather could develop near or after mid-month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 6, 2021 Author Share Posted March 6, 2021 31 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said: Walt - thought you would like to know. We just had half hour of easily moderate snow just 4 miles west of Allentown, Pa. that whitened everything up with a good dusting. Sides of roads were getting white. 32 degrees. Over now but still lots of dark clouds! Yes. Think more flurries than forecasters expected. MPING loaded. I am starting to like the navgem areal coverage for events, more and more. It had this beating, yesterday. I think someone else on the forum is a proponent of the navgem. This flurry situation continues into late tonight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Flurries here this morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 22 hours ago, MJO812 said: I have my shovels ready Me too, to bury winter. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 17 hours ago, uncle W said: NYC might start March with eight straight days with a minimum 32 or lower...March 2019 just missed when the 3rd had a min of 33...I believe the record is 17 from March 1st to 17th 1960... Impressive cold shot when we are struggling to break 40 under clear sky’s in March 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Flurries 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This was the 2nd most backloaded DJF period on Long Island since 2010. Only Nemo in 2013 featured a more lopsided February snowfall total relative to December and January. 09-10 was more a bookend winter on Long Island. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season 2012-2013 0.6 3.3 31.4 35.3 2020-2021 7.5 1.1 24.9 33.5 2013-2014 8.1 25.2 24.5 57.8 2009-2010 25.3 6.4 21.7 53.4 2016-2017 3.2 14.0 14.7 31.9 2014-2015 0.4 30.2 13.4 44.0 2015-2016 T 24.8 13.2 38.0 2010-2011 14.9 34.4 3.9 53.2 2018-2019 T 0.9 3.5 4.4 2017-2018 6.0 22.0 1.4 29.4 2011-2012 T 3.8 0.6 4.4 2019-2020 4.2 2.5 0.0 6.7 12-13 was pretty lackluster here, Nemo was actually less interesting here than the storm we had this February. The Groundhog Day storm as I'll call it dropped more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: Flurries Must be a mid island and points east thing, it's just sunny and windy here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like we are in a warm up followed by cutter then cool down pattern. We finally get our first 60s and perhaps 70° warm up this week. Then the cutter and cool down again mid-month. Models are hinting at a warm up and another cutter around St. Patrick’s day. Then another cool down right after. Seems to be a battle between the more +AO pumping the SE Ridge and MJO 1 trying to flatten it out. This doesn't sound like a snow pattern at all....it sounds like a more typical spring pattern with rainy and 40s and sunny and 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Or is it sunny and 40s and rainy and 60s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 2 hours ago, LVwhiteout said: Walt - thought you would like to know. We just had half hour of easily moderate snow just 4 miles west of Allentown, Pa. that whitened everything up with a good dusting. Sides of roads were getting white. 32 degrees. Over now but still lots of dark clouds! Sounds like the mountains just to the north may have had more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 27 degrees here and still holding on to my snowpack. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Most of the snow is gone here but there's still plenty in less exposed spots. When you come across it on the trails it's pretty bullet proof, especially on north facing hills where spots are quite treacherous. I took a walk on the trail that goes through my neighborhood yesterday evening: https://www.instagram.com/p/CMEAP-YlkcD/?igshid=1e5gp2t8m7y0w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Just went for a walk with wife and dog. Definitely need spring weather. Walking in cold, seeing trees with no leaves, grass dormant is just a depressing look. Give me 70s, sun, green vegetation and a beer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 58 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Impressive cold shot when we are struggling to break 40 under clear sky’s in March 3-4 days of it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowzone Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Sounds like the mountains just to the north may have had more Wow. Very nice to know there is still a little bit of snow happening in some parts, even if it's far away from my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Most of the snow is gone here but there's still plenty in less exposed spots. When you come across it on the trails it's pretty bullet proof, especially on north facing hills where spots are quite treacherous. I took a walk on the trail that goes through my neighborhood yesterday evening: https://www.instagram.com/p/CMEAP-YlkcD/?igshid=1e5gp2t8m7y0w I'd like to see 100 degree heat minus the humidity, so a west to northwest flow summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'd like to see 100 degree heat minus the humidity, so a west to northwest flow summer I think those days are gone...its either hot and humid or just humid... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: I think those days are gone...its either hot and humid or just humid... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 3 hours ago, Snowzone said: Why is that quote under my name? Someone else said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Brrrr 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Brrrr More LR nonsense from the Gfs. Looks like a back and forth pattern after this week's warm up. Probably a few cold days mixed in for mid-late March but nothing crazy. AO still looks positive so don't expect prolonged cold even with favorable MJO. I'm thinking we see 75F Thursday or Friday this week after a very cold (teens in spots that radiate) Monday morning. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: More LR nonsense from the Gfs. Looks like a back and forth pattern after this week's warm up. Probably a few cold days mixed in for mid-late March but nothing crazy. AO still looks positive so don't expect prolonged cold even with favorable MJO. I'm thinking we see 75F Thursday or Friday this week after a very cold (teens in spots that radiate) Monday morning. What nonsense ? It is going to get cold after next week even if it is brief. Don't be shocked to see 1 more snow event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Tomorrow will be another cool day, capping a first week of March with temperature anomalies of 4°-6° below normal across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Early next week, a strong warming trend should commence. Parts of the region will likely see their warmest temperatures so far this year. The 60° isotherm will likely extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and perhaps its highest temperatures since late November. Toward the latter part of the week, near or just after mid-month, temperatures could begin to cool as the AO falls sharply from its forecast peak. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. The SOI was -2.73 today. The SOI has now been negative for seven consecutive days. The last time that occurred was October 14-20, 2020 when the SOI was negative for seven consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.243 today. On March 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.781 (RMM). The March 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.892 (RMM). The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Central Park has 0.2 more inches than Boston 38.6 Central Park 38.4 Boston 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Central Park has 0.2 more inches than Boston 38.6 Central Park 38.4 Boston More surprising is NYC has 3.7 more inches than Bangor Me. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 45degs.(37/54), or about +4.0. Some snow (on the 15th. this time) is showing up. About a 5-day warmup precedes it. The usual 'roll the dice' (GFS)to get the LR T's., goes from a high of 29* to 64* in two runs---for the 19th. 29*(50%RH) here at 6am. 31* by 10am. 38* by 2pm. 43* by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Tug of war pattern coming up between the warmer +AO and cooler MJO 8-1. The first week of March had a brief -AO with colder MJO phases. Now the stronger +AO rise will give us our first 60s and possibly 70° of the year for the normally warmer parts of the region. Beyond this week, the AO looks to fall back less positive while the MJO stays in the cool phases. So a cool down following the warm up this week. Amplified storms will tend to cut with a piece of the SE Ridge holding on. So if you want to see some more measurable snow before the season ends, we would need a weaker sheared out system to try and slip underneath. But it may be a thread the needle type set up so don’t get hopes raised too high. The PV over the lakes would be nice this time around instead of when it was in January. Enjoy this week because the cold air will be back even if its brief. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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