March 2021

[bluewave]

More confirmation of the GFS cold bias fix.

 

[forkyfork]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I have my shovels ready

did you kill someone

[uncle W]

NYC might start March with eight straight days with a minimum 32 or lower...March 2019 just missed when the 3rd had a min of 33...I believe the record is 17 from March 1st to 17th 1960...

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Next week will hit 70 bank on it 

Yeah pretty easily if not 75 honestly. We hit 80 in Feb and 80s in March so it's not a huge stretch.

I hope it stays mild afterwards. Hopefully models are wrong on the colder 2nd half. 

60s/70s with sunny, dry days are some of my favorites in the spring/fall. 

[MJO812]

Weenie gfs run

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weenie gfs run

Nice storm on the 18th, but lala land will be gone in 6 hrs 

[MJO812]

Favorable mjo with negative epo

[Allsnow]

Decent winter for nyc lol

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah pretty easily if not 75 honestly. We hit 80 in Feb and 80s in March so it's not a huge stretch.

I hope it stays mild afterwards. Hopefully models are wrong on the colder 2nd half. 

60s/70s with sunny, dry days are some of my favorites in the spring/fall. 

I don’t drop my wanting of winter until April. IMO winter is already short enough. Today felt like one of the coldest days of the winter due to the wind. Won’t mind the nice stretch coming up.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Decent winter for nyc lol

 

We were as backloaded as Glasgow was frontloaded.

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be fair and continued cold. Sunday will be somewhat warmer and still dry.

Overall, the first week of March will see variable temperatures, even as the week will very likely average cooler than normal. Another short but sharp cold shot is possible Friday through the weekend. Afterward, a strong warming trend should commence. Parts of the region will likely see their warmest temperatures so far during the second week of March. The 60° isotherm could extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and perhaps its highest temperatures since late November.

Toward the latter part of the second week of the month or just after mid-month, temperatures could begin to cool as the AO falls sharply from its forecast peak.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March.

The SOI was -6.94 today. The SOI has now been negative for six consecutive days. The last time that occurred was October 14-20, 2020 when the SOI was negative for seven consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.805 today.

On March 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.892 (RMM). The March 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.719 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, mattinpa said:

I don’t drop my wanting of winter until April. IMO winter is already short enough. Today felt like one of the coldest days of the winter due to the wind. Won’t mind the nice stretch coming up.

Indeed it did feel like one of the coldest.  I wore a hard hat this morning outside, and my skull felt like it was frozen.  Never felt like that skiing, not even in sub zero temps...

[rclab]

7 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i lied and i came back because i have nowhere else to go

also i just want to say rclab, you are an incredibly pleasant person.

Good evening Will, I took Brian’s ‘weenie’ and bid a ‘Thank You’. As always ....

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

Indeed it did feel like one of the coldest.  I wore a hard hat this morning outside, and my skull felt like it was frozen.  Never felt like that skiing, not even in sub zero temps...

Indeed. I just went to the mailbox in my big coat and hat and was still anxious to get back inside.

[CIK62]

Now see this>>>>>    18Z GFS       On the 18th.   15" of Snow,  32* highs?????          Boy, the new GFS has its work cut out for it on its very first day of operation.........24 hours earlier.

[wdrag]

538A/6. Good morning. No threads from me on any upcoming snow for at least another day or more.  Right now, any promising discussion of snow from myself, after ~ the 13th onward needs ro be reserved for the nw suburbs thread. Have no confidence on when.

00Z/6 modeling differs, with the EC-EPS overall colder than the GFS-GEFS. Yet, both ensemble systems bring snow acc of 2" or more to LI by the 20th. Part of that may be climo.  So, my guess,  some sort of unknown amount of snowfall is probably coming to LI in mid -late March, but when?? 

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

When is Easter this year?

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 44degs.(36/52), or +2.0.

32degs.(52%RH) here at 6am.        34* by Noon.

All that snow/cold for the 18th. is gone and T's are 20 degrees higher then, than two runs ago.    GFS going out in its vogue and milieu.

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yep-a start around 7pm is perfect.   

April 2003 and April 2018 were both very decent all day snowfalls, did you shovel either of those?

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

The AO reversal in February continues to set records. This is the first February with a daily -5 reading and only a monthly -1 average. The previous -5 drops in 2010, 1978, and 1969 all had  -3 and lower monthly averages. 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

2021 -2.484 -1.191

2010 -2.587 -4.266 

1978 -0.347 -3.014

1969 -2.967 -3.114   

 

 

 

 

Chris why are there two sets of numbers?

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Next week will hit 70 bank on it 

18 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Next week will hit 70 bank on it 

welp  I guess it's time to shut the heat off then  you know who is probably going to say it lol

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Decent winter for nyc lol

it's been categorized as an "extreme" winter for NYC on the WSI

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

First time since 1950 that NYC had no measurable snowfall first week of March with such a low warmest minimum. 2014 was the only recent year that came close. It was also the last time NYC had more than 25” of snow in February.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Highest Min Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 7	Snowfall
1	1960-03-07	21	14.8
2	1978-03-07	25	5.0
3	1950-03-07	30	T
4	2006-03-07	31	1.3
-	1969-03-07	31	5.6
5	2021-03-07	32	0.0
-	2014-03-07	32	0.1
-	1952-03-07	32	5.3
6	2019-03-07	33	10.4

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
2021	26.0	0
2020	T	0
2019	2.6	0
2018	4.9	0
2017	9.4	0
2016	4.0	0
2015	13.6	0
2014	29.0	0

 

March 2014 we missed snowstorms to our south that hit DC to PHL, we made up for that in 2015

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, forkyfork said:

did you kill someone

no but he might be planning to

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

We were as backloaded as Glasgow was frontloaded.

 

I think this should be classified as a bookend winter with December and February both being very good.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful out

 

Just came back from a nice jog

Ant, where's your shovel?

 

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think this should be classified as a bookend winter with December and February both being very good.

 

This was the 2nd most backloaded DJF period on Long Island since 2010. Only Nemo in 2013 featured a more lopsided February snowfall total relative to December and January. 09-10 was  more a bookend winter on Long Island.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
2012-2013	0.6	3.3	31.4	35.3
2020-2021	7.5	1.1	24.9	33.5
2013-2014	8.1	25.2	24.5	57.8
2009-2010	25.3	6.4	21.7	53.4
2016-2017	3.2	14.0	14.7	31.9
2014-2015	0.4	30.2	13.4	44.0
2015-2016	T	24.8	13.2	38.0
2010-2011	14.9	34.4	3.9	53.2
2018-2019	T	0.9	3.5	4.4
2017-2018	6.0	22.0	1.4	29.4
2011-2012	T	3.8	0.6	4.4
2019-2020	4.2	2.5	0.0	6.7

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

April 2003 and April 2018 were both very decent all day snowfalls, did you shovel either of those?

 

I cant remember on 2003   4/18 I just let melt even though it was 8 inches.   I have an SUV so just drove over it.  It was gone in 2 days.  April 18 was an early morning to noon snow here if I recall correctly.     Great event.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Ant, where's your shovel?

 

In my room

[LVwhiteout]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

538A/6. Good morning. No threads from me on any upcoming snow for at least another day or more.  Right now, any promising discussion of snow from myself, after ~ the 13th onward needs ro be reserved for the nw suburbs thread. Have no confidence on when.

00Z/6 modeling differs, with the EC-EPS overall colder than the GFS-GEFS. Yet, both ensemble systems bring snow acc of 2" or more to LI by the 20th. Part of that may be climo.  So, my guess,  some sort of unknown amount of snowfall is probably coming to LI in mid -late March, but when?? 

 

Walt - thought you would like to know. We just had half hour of easily moderate snow just 4 miles west of Allentown, Pa. that whitened everything up with a good dusting. Sides of roads were getting white. 32 degrees.  Over now but still lots of dark clouds!