March 2021

[wdrag]

I think today and generally this week through the 7th is why I'm not much a fan of the EPO as a predictor of the ps here in the northeast.   Probably great for stable patterns but even that, I'm unsure. Certainly doesn't look too good for this week inclusive of today as predictor? Counter comments welcome. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 36degs.(29/43), or -4.0.

No Snow.     In fact no precipitation for 10 days.      Same warmup still showing up starting March 09.       Rain on the 11th and 15th should do it for the next 15 days.   T uncertainty about the 13th.

22*(40%RH) here at 6am.     ( Was 33* at midnight.)          28* by Noon.           35* by 4pm.

[the_other_guy]

5 hours ago, Nibor said:

Winds are absolutely ferocious right now.

We are 200 feet up on a hill ...Winds were actually scary last night

 

18 F now

[bluewave]

The TPV driving the wind and cold this morning is one of the strongest to dive into Northern New England in early March. This is a 5 SD event for the Canadian Maritimes. So it becomes a supercharged 50/50 low that suppresses the storm track this week.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The TPV driving the wind and cold this morning is one of the strongest to dive into Northern New England in early March. This is a 5 SD event for the Canadian Maritimes. So it becomes a supercharged 50/50 low that suppresses the storm track this week.

This popped up out of no where once again. 

[Cfa]

Low of 21 here, currently 23.

Winds haven’t let up at all.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Overnight, high winds brought cold air into the region. Low temperatures this morning included: Albany: 9°; Allentown: 20°; Boston: 13°; Bridgeport: 20°; Islip: 21°; New Haven: 21°; New York City: 21°; Newark: 21°; Philadelphia: 25°; Poughkeepsie: 18°; and, White Plains: 18°

Today will be mostly sunny, windy, and unseasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle 30s in most of the region. With the gusty wind, it will feel more like mid-winter. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 36°

Newark: 37°

Philadelphia: 37°

Tomorrow will be fair and noticeably milder. Early next week could see the arrival of the warmest weather so far this season.

[Rjay]

@bluewave

 

[MJO812]

23 here in Brooklyn 

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This popped up out of no where once again. 

Unfortunately, the long range models don’t  handle TPV splits and wave breaks very well.

New run

Old run

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, the long range models don’t  handle TPV splits and wave breaks very well.

New run

Old run

 

Pretty amazing how this has happened all winter.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This popped up out of no where once again. 

Unless I misunderstood the above:   the operational GFS had this, but no other model 06z 2/23 cycle. Have attached the image.   It didn't end up quite as far south as the GFS (~504 1000-500 thickness), but certainly the OP was on it.  Soon after the GEFS cycles.  Here is from the 2/28-3/1 thread on Wed morning 2/24 -00z/24 cycle,  which the GFS pegged for it's most intense phase in our area  06z/2.  I didn't want to believe it. What this does, is tell me that the V16 upgrade would not have caught this so early (late to the table).

A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night (but not the GFS op ferocity which doesn't have much support).  - written 2/24A  ~655A

So while it seems the GFS v16 will be an improvement on the current GFSv156 op, I know it won't always be better and I don't know to how much of an improvement the V16 will be.  ALSO,  outliers in long range, sometimes become the closest to reality at whatever future lead time.   

Most of the time outliers are caste away as no good, only sometimes turning out to be the best predictor.  Not easy to know that the outliers are truly not of value. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Pretty amazing how this has happened all winter.

We’ll need one of the cutters during the 2nd week of March to produce another wave breaking event. That may be the best shot at NYC reaching 40” of snowfall in late March. Maybe the -AO can drop again after St.Patrick’s day with the way it has been bouncing around recently.

EPS March 15-22

 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We’ll need one of the cutters during the 2nd week of March to produce another wave breaking event. That may be the best shot at NYC reaching 40” of snowfall in late March. Maybe the -AO can drop again after St.Patrick’s day with the way it has been bouncing around recently.

EPS March 15-22

 

maybe I'll get a nice birthday surprise like what happened in March 29th 1974...that date is the last March date with numerous snowfalls...since I was born it snowed on the 27th-29th a few times...

3/27-28/1959.....0.6" NYC 1.2" LGA

3/29/1970..........4.0" NYC

3/29/1974..........3.2" NYC

3/28-29/1984.....3.3" NYC

3/28-29/1996.....4.1"   NYC

 

 

[crossbowftw3]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We’ll need one of the cutters during the 2nd week of March to produce another wave breaking event. That may be the best shot at NYC reaching 40” of snowfall in late March. Maybe the -AO can drop again after St.Patrick’s day with the way it has been bouncing around recently.

EPS March 15-22

 

Think we get widespread 60s next week, barring the storm this weekend perhaps pulling a miracle? 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Think we get widespread 60s next week, barring the storm this weekend perhaps pulling a miracle? 

Yeah, it looks like the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS get us our first 60°+ of the year during the 2nd week of March. But we still have time for some measurable snow before the month is over. The last average measurable snowfall date since 2013 has been March 23rd. I left off last year since the polar vortex was on steroids from December through March.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
Minimum	03-10 (2019)		11-15 (2018)		223
Mean	03-23		12-05		256
Maximum	04-16 (2014)		12-28 (2015)		281
2019	03-10 (2019)	0.2	12-01 (2019)	0.1	265
2018	04-02 (2018)	5.0	11-15 (2018)	6.4	226
2017	03-14 (2017)	6.9	12-09 (2017)	4.3	269
2016	03-20 (2016)	0.2	12-11 (2016)	0.3	265
2015	03-21 (2015)	0.3	12-28 (2015)	0.1	281
2014	04-16 (2014)	0.1	11-26 (2014)	1.4	223
2013	03-18 (2013)	2.1	12-08 (2013)	0.8	264

 

 

 

[crossbowftw3]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it looks like the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS get us our first 60°+ of the year during the 2nd week of March. But we still have time for some measurable snow before the month in over. The last average measurable snowfall date since 2013 has been March 23rd. I left off last year since the polar vortex was on steroids from December through March.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
Minimum	03-10 (2019)		11-15 (2018)		223
Mean	03-23		12-05		256
Maximum	04-16 (2014)		12-28 (2015)		281
2019	03-10 (2019)	0.2	12-01 (2019)	0.1	265
2018	04-02 (2018)	5.0	11-15 (2018)	6.4	226
2017	03-14 (2017)	6.9	12-09 (2017)	4.3	269
2016	03-20 (2016)	0.2	12-11 (2016)	0.3	265
2015	03-21 (2015)	0.3	12-28 (2015)	0.1	281
2014	04-16 (2014)	0.1	11-26 (2014)	1.4	223
2013	03-18 (2013)	2.1	12-08 (2013)	0.8	264

 

 

 

Makes sense, I am personally expecting at least one more chance at a >4" snow after this upcoming period but have to reel in expectations at least somewhat. The cold shot at 384 looks interesting, but it's 384 hours lol

[donsutherland1]

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to rise sharply over the next 7-10 days. It will very likely peak at or above +3.000 and several ensemble members suggest that it could top out at +4.000 or above. This outcome will help bring the warmest air so far this season into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Temperatures will likely reach the 60s in New York City during the height of the warmth. Philadelphia could see the temperature approach or even reach 70° if some of the guidance is correct.

This does not mean that New York City or Philadelphia have seen their last snowfall.  Since 1950, there have been three cases where the AO peaked at +4.000 or above during the first half of March. All of those cases subsequently saw additional measurable snow in both cities.

1956:
Maximum AO: +4.692, March 2
March 12-24: 21.1" snow in New York City (snowiest March 12-24 period on record)
March 12-24: 10.9" snow in Philadelphia (3rd snowiest March 12-24 period on record)
April 8: A storm brought measurable snow to New York City

Note: The snowy March period coincided with a return of AO blocking, which persisted through late April.

1990:
Maximum AO: +4.638, March 6
April 7: New York City: 0.6" snow; Philadelphia: 2.4” snow

Note: The AO never went negative again through April 7. The April 7 snowfall was largely a function of shortening wave lengths.

2015:
Maximum AO: +5.588, March 8
March 20-21: A storm brought measurable snow to such cities as Baltimore, Boston, New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. New York City picked up 4.5” snow and Philadelphia received 3.9” snow.

Note: The snowstorm was preceded by a brief period of AO blocking.

The sample size is very small, so the only conclusion that is useful is that one should not write off the possibility of snowfall following the AO’s forecast peak.

Were the AO’s peak to occur near or after March 15, the prospect for additional measurable snowfall would be low. All four cases that saw the AO peak on or after March 15 saw no measurable snowfall following the AO’s peak. Those cases were 1968, 1978, 1986, and 2020.

 

[CIK62]

Looking little  changed after the 8th.        However, the solid area of BN air that seemed headed here after the 18th for many runs now, looks like it went through the mix master(not shown) and became unidentifiable, middle of the road junk that won't cut it near springtime.          Long wait for nothing.          Same lack of precipitation except for the 11th,  15th. as before(not shown).

    

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

The amount of 60 degree days on/around Christmas is ridiculous, but also not surprising. Lol

That’s for sure. This will be the first time that both Dec 24th and 25th reached 60° with no 60° days until March. The big warm up around the solstice has become the new normal for us. This is currently the 3rd longest streak at Newark under 60° since 2010.

Data for December 24 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2015-12-24	71	59	0.03	0.0	0
1990-12-24	64	30	0.45	0.0	0
1996-12-24	63	38	0.37	0.0	0
2020-12-24	60	37	0.43	0.0	0
1941-12-24	60	47	0.46	0.0	0

 

Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1964-12-25	69	44	0.01	0.0	0
1982-12-25	68	40	0.02	0.0	0
2014-12-25	64	41	0.10	0.0	0
2015-12-25	63	54	0.03	0.0	0
2020-12-25	62	28	0.66	0.0	0
1940-12-25	61	32	0.00	0.0	0
1994-12-25	60	41	T	0.0	0

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 60 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	75	2015-03-10
2	74	2011-02-13
3	66	2021-03-01
4	65	2010-03-06
5	58	2014-03-10

 

[uncle W]

1998 was going to break the record for the least amount of snow when 2-5" fell across the city from I think was a rear end storm...snow on the backside of a storm...another date in March that saw a good size snowstorm is March 22nd...some March 21st-23rd snowstorms in NYC...

3/21-22/64.....4.9"

3/21-22/67.....9.8"

3/22-23/92.....3.2"

3/21-22/98.....5.0"

3/21-22/18.....8.4"

[donsutherland1]

After a day characterized by unseasonably cold temperatures and wind chills more typical of mid-winter than early March, milder air will return for a short time. Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s with some lower 50s in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas tomorrow.

Overall, the first week of March will see variable temperatures, even as the week will very likely average cooler than normal. Another short but sharp cold shot is possible Friday through the weekend. Afterward, a strong warming trend should commence. Parts of the region will likely see their warmest temperatures so far during the second week of March. The 60° isotherm could extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and perhaps its highest temperatures since late November.

Statistical guidance based on the state of the ENSO and forecast teleconnections implies that the first half of March could wind up generally 1°-3° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest dynamical guidance is suggests temperature anomalies toward the bottom of that range for the first half of March.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March.

The SOI was -6.80 today. The SOI has now been negative for three consecutive days. The last time that occurred was October 25-29, 2020 when the SOI was negative for five consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.775 today.

On March 1 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.004 (RMM). The February 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.887 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

 

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

1998 was going to break the record for the least amount of snow when 2-5" fell across the city from I think was a rear end storm...snow on the backside of a storm...another date in March that saw a good size snowstorm is March 22nd...some March 21st-23rd snowstorms in NYC...

3/21-22/64.....4.9"

3/21-22/67.....9.8"

3/22-23/92.....3.2"

3/21-22/98.....5.0"

3/21-22/18.....8.4"

That 98 storm was only a bare dusting in my area...

[uncle W]

45 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

That 98 storm was only a bare dusting in my area...

I had around 2.5" on Staten Island that day...

[MJO812]

Not a post in 8 hours

Sad

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, uncle W said:

maybe I'll get a nice birthday surprise like what happened in March 29th 1974...that date is the last March date with numerous snowfalls...since I was born it snowed on the 27th-29th a few times...

3/27-28/1959.....0.6" NYC 1.2" LGA

3/29/1970..........4.0" NYC

3/29/1974..........3.2" NYC

3/28-29/1984.....3.3" NYC

3/28-29/1996.....4.1"   NYC

 

 

March 1996 was highly underrated, didn't we get 3x 4" snowfalls that month?  And then another one on April 10th!

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, uncle W said:

1998 was going to break the record for the least amount of snow when 2-5" fell across the city from I think was a rear end storm...snow on the backside of a storm...another date in March that saw a good size snowstorm is March 22nd...some March 21st-23rd snowstorms in NYC...

3/21-22/64.....4.9"

3/21-22/67.....9.8"

3/22-23/92.....3.2"

3/21-22/98.....5.0"

3/21-22/18.....8.4"

yes that storm wasn't well predicted.  If you extend it to March 20-23, didn't we have one in March 1994, a 4" to end that season?  I remember a few seasons that had their last measurable snowfall in that period right near the equinox.  March 2015 should be on this list too.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to rise sharply over the next 7-10 days. It will very likely peak at or above +3.000 and several ensemble members suggest that it could top out at +4.000 or above. This outcome will help bring the warmest air so far this season into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Temperatures will likely reach the 60s in New York City during the height of the warmth. Philadelphia could see the temperature approach or even reach 70° if some of the guidance is correct.

This does not mean that New York City or Philadelphia have seen their last snowfall.  Since 1950, there have been three cases where the AO peaked at +4.000 or above during the first half of March. All of those cases subsequently saw additional measurable snow in both cities.

1956:
Maximum AO: +4.692, March 2
March 12-24: 21.1" snow in New York City (snowiest March 12-24 period on record)
March 12-24: 10.9" snow in Philadelphia (3rd snowiest March 12-24 period on record)
April 8: A storm brought measurable snow to New York City

Note: The snowy March period coincided with a return of AO blocking, which persisted through late April.

1990:
Maximum AO: +4.638, March 6
April 7: New York City: 0.6" snow; Philadelphia: 2.4” snow

Note: The AO never went negative again through April 7. The April 7 snowfall was largely a function of shortening wave lengths.

2015:
Maximum AO: +5.588, March 8
March 20-21: A storm brought measurable snow to such cities as Baltimore, Boston, New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. New York City picked up 4.5” snow and Philadelphia received 3.9” snow.

Note: The snowstorm was preceded by a brief period of AO blocking.

The sample size is very small, so the only conclusion that is useful is that one should not write off the possibility of snowfall following the AO’s forecast peak.

Were the AO’s peak to occur near or after March 15, the prospect for additional measurable snowfall would be low. All four cases that saw the AO peak on or after March 15 saw no measurable snowfall following the AO’s peak. Those cases were 1968, 1978, 1986, and 2020.

 

How much did NYC get in the April 1956 snow, Don?  and wow Philly got that much snow in April 1990?  How much did JFK get?  Looks like that was a southern storm?

I remember 89-90 for the odd cold dry December followed by record warm January and February and what can only be described as a heat wave in the middle of March!

and March 2015?  wasn't that a cold February and March and we had a single digit low just before March 1st and an 8 inch snowstorm in March?

 

[wdrag]

Modeling hope- unrealistic on my part?  Taking into account prior page posts by Bluewave and Don; and to this 00z/3 outlooked unfavorable AO/NAO/EPO/PNA, here goes. Suppose it will have to be thread the needle?   500 MB trough is ensembled to return to the central USA by mid month, with a reactivating storm track out of the southern Plains-Ohio Valley.  Modeling is trying to juice up the Tenneseee Valley again for a potentially active period March 14-~ April 5.  This I think is in keeping with some long ranging impressions (not mine) of an active severe weather season this spring.  CFS constantly has been offering snow/ice hopes down here in our forum from mid month onward for a number of cycles, implying high pressure to our north and a storm track trying to move up to and along I80 with a few cutters thrown in.  So in essence, the posts I've read the past page or so, all seem to have the correct possibilities. It's simply too early to end snow season.  Whether any of these from the 14th onward, provide NYC with more than a half inch of snow I don't know but I'm confident the I84 corridor has several more opportunities for meaningful snowfall into the first week of April.  Climo says temps warm and so if it's daytime light snow, probably lots of it melts.   

First opportunity (no thread since it could CUT). is ~Sunday the 14th.  Confluence between Pacific into southern USA with primary jet near 35-37N and the Canadian stream might give us a chance?  Not worthy of a thread, as yet, if ever. One of these that follows might bring membership satisfactory closure for the NYC snow season?  Reminder: this is said against the backdrop of unfavorable teleconnection indices.  MJO... I don't know what role it will play. 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not a post in 8 years

Sad

who?