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March 2021


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Temperatures soared to record highs in much of the region today as clouds yielded to sunshine and strong winds. At New York City's Central Park, the temperature reached 80° in March for the first time since March 31, 1998 when the temperature topped out at a sizzling 86°. Today was also just the 16th day on record when the temperature reached or exceeded 80° in Central Park. Records go back to 1869. Today was also the first 80° reading at JFK Airport since March 29, 1998 when the mercury rose to 82°.

High temperatures included:

Albany: 75° (old record: 74°, 1986)
Allentown: 77° (old record: 74°, 1963)
Annapolis: 83°
Atlantic City: 83° (old record: 71°, 1986 and 2003)
Baltimore: 83°
Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 70°, 1954)
Georgetown, DE: 86° (old record: 78°, 1988 and 2004)
Harrisburg: 77°
Hartford: 77° (old record: 74°, 1922)
Islip: 78° (old record: 65°, 1976)
Jacksonville: 90° (old record: 88°, 1965)
New Haven: 77° (old record: 67°, 1954)
New York City-JFK: 81° (old record: 67°, 1954)
New York City-LGA: 82° (old record: 72°, 1943)
New York City-NYC: 82° (old record: 76°, 1922)
Newark: 84° (old record: 73°, 1986)
Philadelphia: 83° (old record: 80°, 1921)
Poughkeepsie: 79° (old record: 75°, 1949 and 1963)
Richmond: 86° (old record: 85°, 1939)
Savannah: 90° (old record: 88°, 1929)
Salisbury: 82°
Sterling, VA: 81° (old record: 78°, 2004)
Trenton: 81° (old record: 79°, 1910 and 1921)
Washington, DC: 84°
Westhampton: 72° (old record: 67°, 1954)
White Plains: 80° (old record: 76°, 1963)
Wilmington, DE: 84° (old record: 77°, 1921)

Tomorrow will be cooler but still warm for the season. The ongoing sustained period warmer than normal readings will continue through the end of March.

In contrast, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.347 today.

On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.394 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.483 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.7° above normal).

 

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Today was a tsunami for allergies. Sunshine, 80s, strong winds gusting to 50 mph. That pollen perfect storm almost never happens. If its that windy its usually associated with cooler weather and/or rain. Plus winds were S to SW for a huge influx of new pollen

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4 hours ago, dWave said:

Today was a tsunami for allergies. Sunshine, 80s, strong winds gusting to 50 mph. That pollen perfect storm almost never happens. If its that windy its usually associated with cooler weather and/or rain. Plus winds were S to SW for a huge influx of new pollen

Crazy weather....could you imagine this in July

Downsloping winds..... 100 degrees with 60 mph winds and 15 pct humidity lol

 

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures soared to record highs in much of the region today as clouds yielded to sunshine and strong winds. At New York City's Central Park, the temperature reached 80° in March for the first time since March 31, 1998 when the temperature topped out at a sizzling 86°. Today was also just the 16th day on record when the temperature reached or exceeded 80° in Central Park. Records go back to 1869. Today was also the first 80° reading at JFK Airport since March 29, 1998 when the mercury rose to 82°.

High temperatures included:

Albany: 75° (old record: 74°, 1986)
Allentown: 77° (old record: 74°, 1963)
Annapolis: 83°
Atlantic City: 83° (old record: 71°, 1986 and 2003)
Baltimore: 83°
Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 70°, 1954)
Georgetown, DE: 86° (old record: 78°, 1988 and 2004)
Harrisburg: 77°
Hartford: 77° (old record: 74°, 1922)
Islip: 78° (old record: 65°, 1976)
Jacksonville: 90° (old record: 88°, 1965)
New Haven: 77° (old record: 67°, 1954)
New York City-JFK: 81° (old record: 67°, 1954)
New York City-LGA: 82° (old record: 72°, 1943)
New York City-NYC: 82° (old record: 76°, 1922)
Newark: 84° (old record: 73°, 1986)
Philadelphia: 83° (old record: 80°, 1921)
Poughkeepsie: 79° (old record: 75°, 1949 and 1963)
Richmond: 86° (old record: 85°, 1939)
Savannah: 90° (old record: 88°, 1929)
Salisbury: 82°
Sterling, VA: 81° (old record: 78°, 2004)
Trenton: 81° (old record: 79°, 1910 and 1921)
Washington, DC: 84°
Westhampton: 72° (old record: 67°, 1954)
White Plains: 80° (old record: 76°, 1963)
Wilmington, DE: 84° (old record: 77°, 1921)

Tomorrow will be cooler but still warm for the season. The ongoing sustained period warmer than normal readings will continue through the end of March.

In contrast, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.347 today.

On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.394 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.483 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.7° above normal).

 

wow when was the last time that all three New York City locations hit 80 in March?

 

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The last 5 days of March are averaging 54degs.(46/62), or +7.0.

Month to date is  44.1[+2.5].         March should end  near  45.7[+3.2].

GFS still with some snow on April 01.      A -15C 850mb T is likely near this time.      After the 4th.,  model spread too great to be useful.

51*(61%RH) here at 6am.  (was 57* at midnight)    50* at 7am.     52* by 9am.      56* by 11am.     Down to 54* at 11:30am.       55* by Noon.      57* by 1pm.   58* by 2pm, but down to 56* at 2:30pm.      53* at 5pm.

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This was a top 3 or 4 warmest March temperature for all our stations.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1945 89 0
2 1998 86 0
- 1990 86 0
3 2021 84 5
Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1998 86 0
- 1945 86 0
2 1990 85 0
3 1921 84 0
4 2021 82 5

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1945 86 0
2 1998 83 0
- 1990 83 0
3 2021 82 5

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1990 85 0
2 1998 82 0
3 2021 81 5

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1990 82 0
2 1998 81 0
3 1991 79 0
4 2021 78 5

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1990 84 0
2 1998 80 0
3 2021 79 5
Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1998 82 1
- 1990 82 1
2 2021 80 5

 

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Morning thoughts...

In the wake of yesterday’s record-breaking warmth, today will be partly sunny and continued warm. However, it will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 66°

Newark: 67°

Philadelphia: 69°

Clouds and rain will return for Sunday. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

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Tomorrow mostly cloudy with some showers and possibly thundershowers. It will remain mild for the season. The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings.

As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around.

Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today.

On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.068 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.391 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.9° above normal).

 

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow mostly cloudy with some showers and possibly thundershowers. It will remain mild for the season. The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings.

As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around.

Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today.

On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.068 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.391 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.9° above normal).

 

2018 had so many late season storms, April's was the capper.

What's stopping it from happening this time around?

 

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The last 4 days of March are averaging 54degs.(46/63).

Month to date is  44.7[+2.9].     March should end at  45.9[+3.4].

First 10 days of April are averaging 48degs.(40/57), or about -1.0.      This has been  going downward.

EURO has a Trace of Snow----but now it is on the 4th.       Models have been useless with this aspect of forecasting.

50*(90%RH) here at 6am.      52* at 7am.       Been up and down in the low 50's for hours, now at 1pm   51* and FOG <0.2mi.           Was near 57* for most of evening.

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7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

46F

Everyone loves the beautiful weather

 

However, let’s not mask the fact that this is yet another relentless +10 period.

 

It is way too early for this, with no extended normal weather in sight. 
 

Very alarming...again

 

 

 

 

Well there's a strong cold shot to start April and we've seen much warmer Marches before so things have been much worse. 

Still it's alarming that it doesn't take much to score another record high. Even a benign ridge could get it done nowadays.

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Morning thoughts...

A storm will pass to the west of the region. Periods of rain, including some thunderstorms, are likely. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 66°

Philadelphia: 71°

Tomorrow will be fair and cooler. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

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