wdrag Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 Waiting another 12-48 hours before a possible thread on March 6-7. Modeling potential exists for a large late winter coastal storm with snow inland and rain/snow coast. For now mostly Atlantic cod, but should continue to monitor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 48 minutes ago, wdrag said: Waiting another 12-48 hours before a possible thread on March 6-7. Modeling potential exists for a large late winter coastal storm with snow inland and rain/snow coast. For now mostly Atlantic cod, but should continue to monitor. Strong cold high to the north could mean snows down to the coast. Really impressive potential. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Strong cold high to the north could mean snows down to the coast. Really impressive potential. Models are getting closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Waiting another 12-48 hours before a possible thread on March 6-7. Modeling potential exists for a large late winter coastal storm with snow inland and rain/snow coast. For now mostly Atlantic cod, but should continue to monitor. In other words there is still the possibility of the storm tracking too close to the coast since you mentioned it could still be another rainstorm there ? There will be a fresh injection of cold enough air from Canada just prior to the possible storms arrival which is a needed ingredient for a SECS . Also hard to believe this storm will be suppressed like the ones in January when the blocking was too extreme or are the flows this time around going to be to separate and fast not allowing any type of phasing along the coastal plain ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Models are getting closer MJO now expected to be in phase 8 as the storm arrives. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: MJO now expected to be in phase 8 as the storm arrives. Looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: In other words there is still the possibility of the storm tracking too close to the coast since you mentioned it could still be another rainstorm there ? There will be a fresh injection of cold enough air from Canada just prior to the possible storms arrival which is a needed ingredient for a SECS . Also hard to believe this storm will be suppressed like the ones in January when the blocking was too extreme or are the flows this time around going to be to separate and fast not allowing any type of phasing along the coastal plain ? Hope you're right. 06z/27 GEFS split the northern and southern streams by the 7th and never hooked enough to give much of northward response (post tilt northern stream). Would like to see the southern stream short wave come out faster, but it may not. Then by the time it does, too late with little cold enough air remaining. Distant horizon in time. Definitely not doing anything (from my initiation) for another day or 2 til some sort of model agreement on a northward translation close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Models are starting to show more blocking. Keep an eye on this period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 IMO this is where we want to be about a week away on the GFS surface maps - don't want to be in the bullseye YET - just a shift 100 -150 miles to the west of the surface LP - sharpening up the trough and we will be dealing with at least a SECS - that HP in southern Canada is also very important 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Para gfs is close 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Cmc is also west from 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 Yes, GFSv16 has ~half a foot along the e coast (I95 eastward from northern NC northeastward). I'd like to the EPS/GEFS snow amounts start accumulating for this potential, before I jump in. Lot's can wrong but interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 25 minutes ago, wdrag said: Yes, GFSv16 has ~half a foot along the e coast (I95 eastward from northern NC northeastward). I'd like to the EPS/GEFS snow amounts start accumulating for this potential, before I jump in. Lot's can wrong but interesting for sure. check those amounts out right on the Jersey coast Walt - and Long Island too - 21 inches southern DelMarva ???I doubt if that will happen only there - what do you think ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Since nothing to track, you know we’re all waiting for what the euro shows next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 vs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: check those amounts out right on the Jersey coast Walt - and Long Island too - 21 inches southern DelMarva ???I doubt if that will happen only there - what do you think ? Nice to see but so much can shred or tighten up... at this distant date... treat as another member and watch the EPS (and GEFS/GEPS) 24 hr qpf and snowfall, of course the 500MB pattern. I could see this running up into New England or interior NJ with snow to rain as per some of the modeling i saw a day or two ago. Worthy of self monitoring, plenty of patience and not too much time invested--in case it's a dissapointment. Been a good winter. Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 1 hour ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Since nothing to track, you know we’re all waiting for what the euro shows next weekend I dont think anyone cares what the euro says this far out. It is just a normal model now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 18Z GFSv16 vs. 12Z GFSv16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 21 hours ago, wdrag said: Waiting another 12-48 hours before a possible thread on March 6-7. Modeling potential exists for a large late winter coastal storm with snow inland and rain/snow coast. For now mostly Atlantic cod, but should continue to monitor. I wonder if cod taste better when they are stuffed with snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 20 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Strong cold high to the north could mean snows down to the coast. Really impressive potential. This March 6th period has history on its side both ways.....historic hits and historic busts..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 14 hours ago, wdrag said: Nice to see but so much can shred or tighten up... at this distant date... treat as another member and watch the EPS (and GEFS/GEPS) 24 hr qpf and snowfall, of course the 500MB pattern. I could see this running up into New England or interior NJ with snow to rain as per some of the modeling i saw a day or two ago. Worthy of self monitoring, plenty of patience and not too much time invested--in case it's a dissapointment. Been a good winter. Walt Well this looks like a happy medium between the cutter/hugger scenarios and the OTS scenarios. Would like to see it about 50-100 miles closer and stop there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 28, 2021 Author Share Posted February 28, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I wonder if cod taste better when they are stuffed with snow? Doesn't look an event to me, unless we get a clipper that dives southeast from the Great Lakes and passes s of LI around the 7th-8th. Long ways to go. Think I'd look for the clipper as a 'hope' for any widespread synoptic scale low pressure driven snow event, otherwise we have an unusually long essentially dry period here that lasts from March 2nd beyond March 9. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 33 minutes ago, wdrag said: Doesn't look an event to me, unless we get a clipper that dives southeast from the Great Lakes and passes s of LI around the 7th-8th. Long ways to go. Think I'd look for the clipper as a 'hope' for any widespread synoptic scale low pressure driven snow event, otherwise we have an unusually long essentially dry period here that lasts from March 2nd beyond March 9. Yeah, looks like the TPV that gives us the brief Arctic outbreak Monday night into Tuesday acts to suppress the southern stream for a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Doesn't look an event to me, unless we get a clipper that dives southeast from the Great Lakes and passes s of LI around the 7th-8th. Long ways to go. Think I'd look for the clipper as a 'hope' for any widespread synoptic scale low pressure driven snow event, otherwise we have an unusually long essentially dry period here that lasts from March 2nd beyond March 9. this sounds familiar- didn't we also have this in January before the storms started piling in later in the month? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I wonder if cod taste better when they are stuffed with snow? I would check with the family but then I may never post again. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 The MJO running from phase 8-2 in March is not consistent with a warm March. Don't be surprised to see models back off the warmth. The short term Greenland block was definitely not expected. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The MJO running from phase 8-2 in March is not consistent with a warm March. Don't be surprised to see models back off the warmth. The short term Greenland block was definitely not expected. Agree and you can see it on the 12z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Colder start to March on the 12z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: The MJO running from phase 8-2 in March is not consistent with a warm March. Don't be surprised to see models back off the warmth. The short term Greenland block was definitely not expected. Funny how blocking just shows up out of nowhere sometimes....although this year it's not as much of a surprise given how much of it we've seen so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 "It was one of those March nights when winter seems to resume its sway and disperses its last storms and snowfalls with a vengeance..." Tolstoy, War and Peace..... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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