March 2021

[psv88]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

17.7 in Muttontown this morning. Only got down to 21.3 in Syosset.

21.7 here in commack

[bluewave]

GFS continuing with the first -5 to +5 AO rise in such a short period of time. 

2021  2 10 -5.285
2021  2 11 -5.254

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like no rain and mostly sunny right through next weekend?

 

That’s possible. It may take a little longer before a stormier pattern develops. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That’s possible. It may take a little longer before a stormier pattern develops. 

There is a lag with the mjo. Looks like a stormy end of March into April. By that time  , it will most likely be rain.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

There is a lag with the mjo. Looks like a stormy end of March into April. By that time  , it will most likely be rain.

I'd rather have the heat- screw the rain, but you know as well as I do about once a decade we do get a snowstorm in April ;-)

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

21.7 here in commack

24.6 here shortly before 7am.  Breeze off the sound never quit.  Up to 36 as of noon but I have reservations about the effectiveness of the radiation shield on my setup..

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s funny how April has been snowier than March when February had 20”+ since our snowfall increase in 2003.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2010	32.9	T	0.0	32.9
2021	30.6	T	M	30.6
2014	30.3	0.2	0.4	30.9
2003	29.9	3.3	4.4	37.6
2006	21.5	1.2	1.3	24.0

Now you know why I like April more than March lol.

You expect it in March and when it doesn't live up to expectations it leaves a sour taste.

In April it's a nice surprise to get it so when it happens it makes you remember it- especially since we all know it will be the last snow of the season.

 

[gravitylover]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Now you know why I like April more than March lol.

You expect it in March and when it doesn't live up to expectations it leaves a sour taste.

In April it's a nice surprise to get it so when it happens it makes you remember it- especially since we all know it will be the last snow of the season.

 

Unless it snows in May like last year. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Now you know why I like April more than March lol.

You expect it in March and when it doesn't live up to expectations it leaves a sour taste.

In April it's a nice surprise to get it so when it happens it makes you remember it- especially since we all know it will be the last snow of the season.

 

The “last hurrah” pattern that can give a late snow event can come back in April in those years while in a snowy Feb, the pattern warms up in March and shuts down the snow which might be what’s happening now. 

[snowman19]

Hope everyone gets out to enjoy this glorious week of weather coming up. Looks amazing, we finally hit the 60’s! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing! I’ll be out practicing the bag pipes and doing Irish square dances in the warm weather :-) Gotta get ready for St. Paddy’s next week!

[bluewave]

This will be only the 6th time since 1991 that NYC had to wait until March for the first 60°+ day of the year. But it’s the first time following a warmer than average winter. So you can see how rare the winter south based blocking pattern was.

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	DJF AVG Temp
2015	03-26 (2015)	62	31.4
2003	03-16 (2003)	68	31.2
2014	03-11 (2014)	66	32.9
2010	03-08 (2010)	61	33.8
2004	03-01 (2004)	63	32.4

2021................................................36.1

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd rather have the heat- screw the rain, but you know as well as I do about once a decade we do get a snowstorm in April ;-)

 

 

April snows can be very picturesque. One photo from the April 2, 2018 snowstorm:

[SnoSki14]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12Z guidance is warmer next 10 days  as the +AO and SE Ridge pattern is correcting stronger. 

 

 

There goes any chance at more wintry events. 

Rest of the month looks mild. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 12Z guidance is warmer next 10 days  as the +AO and SE Ridge pattern is correcting stronger. 

 

 

This could be kind of a replay of February where the core of the cold never reaches the East.

[gmendevils8204]

40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There goes any chance at more wintry events. 

Rest of the month looks mild. 

I'm OK with that.  It was a solid winter.  Really looking forward to the nicer weather this year.

[White Gorilla]

56 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This could be kind of a replay of February where tie core of the cold never reaches the East.

Glad to hear.  I am done with winter. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

This could be kind of a replay of February where the core of the cold never reaches the East.

If we can keep the lower heights from building over Nova Scotia it can be a pretty warm month altogether. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

There goes any chance at more wintry events. 

Rest of the month looks mild. 

TORCH!   That SE ridge means business

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

There goes any chance at more wintry events. 

Rest of the month looks mild. 

Its over

[495weatherguy]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

TORCH!   That SE ridge means business

We can only hope that this verifies

[nycwinter]

i wan't a cold spring who wants a warm spring and a hot summer not me!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i wan't a cold spring who wants a warm spring and a hot summer not me!

I still don't quite understand why anyone would want a hot summer. For what purpose? A normal summer with low to mid 80's as highs and low 60's in the early am, I live in the HV and that's the norms, is perfect weather, why do people covet 90's?

[dave0176]

8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I still don't quite understand why anyone would want a hot summer. For what purpose? A normal summer with low to mid 80's as highs and low 60's in the early am, I live in the HV and that's the norms, is perfect weather, why do people covet 90's?

I love it man my favorite time of the summer is the first three weeks of July. Although the last 3-4 years have been rough once August rolls around with those terrible dews. 

[MJO812]

Disappointed  that Central Park will not hit 40 inches.

[MJO812]

Epo tanks on the eps 

[donsutherland1]

The temperature rose into the 40s across much of the region today. Not too far south in Baltimore and Washington, the temperature rose into the 50s. Tomorrow, that warmth will surge northward with much of the region seeing the temperature top out in the 50s with some 60s possible.

Wednesday could be a few degrees cooler and then the warmest air of the season will arrive for Thursday and Friday. The 60° isotherm will likely extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and likely its highest temperatures since late November.

Toward the latter part of the week, near or just after mid-month, temperatures could begin to cool as the AO falls sharply from its forecast peak. However, just as was the case during the historic February arctic outbreak, the core of the cold will likely remain west of the region on account of a fairly expansive western Atlantic ridge.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -4.12 today. The SOI has now been negative for nine consecutive days. The last time that occurred was March 16-31, 2020 when the SOI was negative for 16 consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.206 today. Over the next few days, the AO is forecast to rise sharply. The ensembles suggest that the AO could peak at or above +5.000. This would be a rare event in March. Since 1950, only March 7-8, 2015 saw the AO at or above +5.000. The March record is +5.588, which was set on March 8, 2015.

On March 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.764 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.713 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.0° (0.5° above normal).

 

[crossbowftw3]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature rose into the 40s across much of the region today. Not too far south in Baltimore and Washington, the temperature rose into the 50s. Tomorrow, that warmth will surge northward with much of the region seeing the temperature top out in the 50s with some 60s possible.

Wednesday could be a few degrees cooler and then the warmest air of the season will arrive for Thursday and Friday. The 60° isotherm will likely extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and likely its highest temperatures since late November.

Toward the latter part of the week, near or just after mid-month, temperatures could begin to cool as the AO falls sharply from its forecast peak. However, just as was the case during the historic February arctic outbreak, the core of the cold will likely remain west of the region on account of a fairly expansive western Atlantic ridge.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -4.12 today. The SOI has now been negative for nine consecutive days. The last time that occurred was March 16-31, 2020 when the SOI was negative for 16 consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.206 today. Over the next few days, the AO is forecast to rise sharply. The ensembles suggest that the AO could peak at or above +5.000. This would be a rare event in March. Since 1950, only March 7-8, 2015 saw the AO at or above +5.000. The March record is +5.588, which was set on March 8, 2015.

On March 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.764 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.713 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.0° (0.5° above normal).

 

Any indication on if the cold out west could end up as significant as it was last month, relatively speaking, or is it looking more seasonably cooler?

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

TORCH!   That SE ridge means business

It should make the summer and hurricane season really interesting again.

Also some big heat waves are possible.

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

It should make the summer and hurricane season really interesting again.

Also some big heat waves are possible.

plenty of early indicators we're in for another active hurricane season. Background state looks eerily similar to last year. 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Any indication on if the cold out west could end up as significant as it was last month, relatively speaking, or is it looking more seasonably cooler?

No. This air mass is cold but nothing like the February one relative to normal (standard deviations from normal).