bluewave Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How did this event last so long, I was shocked at the heavy rain last night, I thought this was basically a frontal passage and would end during the day. The super high winds this morning shocked me too It was a 2 part event. Morning warm front followed by evening cold front. Most impressive rains here were with the morning warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: It was a 2 part event. Morning warm front followed by evening cold front. Most impressive rains here were with the morning warm front. I must've slept through that I found the rains in the evening much heavier and then the high winds kicked in. I found the morning rains just light- what time were the heaviest rains in the morning? I woke up around 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Morning thoughts... Clouds will break and it will become partly to mostly sunny. It will also be breezy. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 57° Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat milder. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 if NYC gets below freezing in April it will be the first time since 1977 that NYC got to freezing from Oct to April... 1976-77, 1974-75 and , 1969-70 did it...edited... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I must've slept through that I found the rains in the evening much heavier and then the high winds kicked in. I found the morning rains just light- what time were the heaviest rains in the morning? I woke up around 11. it was before then for sure where you are-it hit around here at 10:30 and went for a good hour or so of heavy rains-then just mist and fog the rest of the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, uncle W said: if NYC gets below freezing in April it will be the first time since 1977 that NYC got to freezing from Oct to April... 1976-77, 1975-76, 1974-75 and , 1969-70 did it... strange it did not happen in 2002-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: strange it did not happen in 2002-03 In October 2002, the lowest temperature in New York City was 36°, on October 24. Prior to the 32° temperature on October 31, 2020, New York City had not seen an October freeze since October 31, 1988 when the temperature fell to 31°. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: In October 2002, the lowest temperature in New York City was 36°, on October 24. Prior to the 32° temperature on October 31, 2020, New York City had not seen an October freeze since October 31, 1988 when the temperature fell to 31°. I do remember a trace of snow in October 2002, it must have happened with temps in the mid 30s. And wow that is a long interval with temps of freezing or lower in October! That includes the October snowstorm in 2011! I wonder if that was the most snow NYC has ever seen in a storm in which the temperature never got to freezing or below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 3 hours ago, uncle W said: if NYC gets below freezing in April it will be the first time since 1977 that NYC got to freezing from Oct to April... 1976-77, 1975-76, 1974-75 and , 1969-70 did it... This is one of those rare times that an October minimum temperature departure was lower than the whole DJF winter. 10-31 had a -14 low temperature departure in NYC. The winter lowest temperature departure was -13 on 1-29. Almanac for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY October 31, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 46 59 81 in 1946 41 in 1869 Min Temperature 32 46 62 in 1961 29 in 1925 Almanac for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY January 29, 2021 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 25 39 69 in 2002 13 in 1977 Min Temperature 14 27 50 in 2002 -0 in 1873 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I do remember a trace of snow in October 2002, it must have happened with temps in the mid 30s. And wow that is a long interval with temps of freezing or lower in October! That includes the October snowstorm in 2011! I wonder if that was the most snow NYC has ever seen in a storm in which the temperature never got to freezing or below? NYC's highest snowfall with a temperature above freezing occurred on April 2, 2018 when 5.5" snow fell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Tomorrow will be fair and a bit milder. Overall, the remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings. April could start out on the cold side, but moderation should occur later in the first week of the month. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The warmer scenario remains the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +0.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.703 today. On March 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.424 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.093 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (3.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 more elevated heavy convection wednesday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 moisture from the gulf and tropical atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: moisture from the gulf and tropical atlantic There's no way we'll ever see a drought again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: Yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Yikes cold water eastern atlantic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 16 hours ago, uncle W said: if NYC gets below freezing in April it will be the first time since 1977 that NYC got to freezing from Oct to April... 1976-77, 1974-75 and , 1969-70 did it...edited... We all know what the Summer of 1977 was like in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 14 hours ago, bluewave said: This is one of those rare times that an October minimum temperature departure was lower than the whole DJF winter. 10-31 had a -14 low temperature departure in NYC. The winter lowest temperature departure was -13 on 1-29. Almanac for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY October 31, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 46 59 81 in 1946 41 in 1869 Min Temperature 32 46 62 in 1961 29 in 1925 Almanac for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY January 29, 2021 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 25 39 69 in 2002 13 in 1977 Min Temperature 14 27 50 in 2002 -0 in 1873 Do you think we can beat that in April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 The last 2 days of March are averaging 54degs.(46/61), or +7.0. Month to date is 45.2(+3.1) March should end at 45.7(+3.2). First 10 days of April are averaging 53degs.(44/61), or +4.0. 46*(47%RH) here at 6am. 47* by 9am. 49* by Noon 50* at 1pm. 52* by 3pm. 53* at 4pm. 48* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 got down to 29 here, solid frost on everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 29 in Muttontown & 30.3 in Syosset for low, frost as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 68° Rain will arrive late tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches and moves across the region. An area running from upstate New York up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec could pick up a moderate to significant snowfall. Following the frontal passage, an unseasonably cold air mass will move into the East for the first two days of April. New York City could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018 when the temperature fell to. 32°. Some near record to record low temperatures are possible on Friday in the Gulf States and Southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 9 hours ago, nycwinter said: cold water eastern atlantic.. Warm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 We'll all be below freezing April 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 68° Rain will arrive late tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches and moves across the region. An area running from upstate New York up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec could pick up a moderate to significant snowfall. Following the frontal passage, an unseasonably cold air mass will move into the East for the first two days of April. New York City could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018 when the temperature fell to. 32°. Some near record to record low temperatures are possible on Friday in the Gulf States and Southeast. It looks like the coastal storm track is the reason it wont snow to the coast.....hugger track, Don? If it was 150 miles farther east, the situation would be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 68° Rain will arrive late tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches and moves across the region. An area running from upstate New York up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec could pick up a moderate to significant snowfall. Following the frontal passage, an unseasonably cold air mass will move into the East for the first two days of April. New York City could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018 when the temperature fell to. 32°. Some near record to record low temperatures are possible on Friday in the Gulf States and Southeast. Don, that previous last April freeze was a week after the snowstorm we had that April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don, that previous last April freeze was a week after the snowstorm we had that April? Yes. There was no freeze during the storm. April 8-9, 2018 both had lows of 32 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We'll all be below freezing April 1-2. But then Easter through next week look amazing, sun and warmth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Newark should get to 80 days with a min 32 or lower after this week... Year..........Oct...Nov...Dec.....Jan.....Feb....Mar.....Apr...Tot... 2020-21.....1.........2.......19.......25.......21.......12..................79 2019-20.....0.......11.......19........18.......13.........3.........1.......65 2018-19.....0.........9.......17.......25.......21.......16..........1.......89 2017-18.....0.........8.......21.......24.......13.......18.........4.......88 2016-17.....0.........1........18........13.......18.......16.........0.......66 2015-16.....1.........4.........0........27.......17.........6.........5.......60 2014-15.....0.......12.......12........28......28.......19.........0.......99 2013-14.....0.......12.......21........27.......25.......19.........1......105 2012-13.....0.........6.......14........21.......23.......15.........3.......82 2011-12.....1..........1........14........17........15..........5.........0.......53 2010-11.....0.........3.......27........28.......21........12.........0.......96 2009-10.....0.........1.......20.......25.......24.........2.........0.......72 2008-09.....0.......12.......20.......30.......23.......13.........0.......98 2007-08.....0.........3.......17........22.......21........14.........0.......77 2006-07.....0.........2.......12........19........27........12.........5.......77 2005-06.....0.........6.......24.......15........20.......14.........0.......79 2004-05.....0.........4.......17........20.......23.......19..........0.......83 2003-04.....0.........2.......22.......27.......26........11..........3.......91 2002-03.....0.........4.......22.......29.......23.......14..........3.......95 2001-02.....0.........4........11........15........16........11...........2.......59 2000-01.....0..........7.......28.......25.......19.........13..........0.......92 1999-00.....0.........3.......16........23.......21..........4..........1........68 1998-99.....0.........3.......14........22.......15.........11..........0.......65 1997-98.....1.........10.......18........14.......12.........12..........0.......67 1996-97.....0........15.......13........26.......16.........16..........2.......88 1995-96.....0.......16.......28.......28........18.........17..........0......107 1994-95.....0.........5.......13.......19........24..........6..........3.......70 1993-94.....0.........4.......15.......28.......25.........12..........0.......84 1992-93.....0.........5.......14.......20.......24.........15..........0.......78 1991-92.....0.........5.......18........19.......19..........17..........2.......80 1990-91.....0.........2.......13.......23.......16..........10.........0.......64 1989-90.....0.........9.......31.......17........16..........11..........1.......85 1988-89.....1..........2.......24.......19.......22........15..........0.......83 1987-88.....0.........5........15.......24.......24.......13..........0.......81 1986-87.....0.........6........16.......25.......28.......14...........1.......90 1985-86.....0.........0.......23.......25.......23.......12..........0.......83 1984-85.....0.........9.......14.......29.......21........13..........0.......86 1983-84.....0.........2.......18.......27........12........15..........0.......74 1982-83.....1..........9.......12.......20........19.........7..........0.......68 1981-82.....1..........6.......22.......28.......19........10..........7.......93 1980-81.....0........10.......24.......29.......16........16..........1.......96 1979-80.....0.........2.......15........25.......24.......14.........3.......83 1978-79.....0.........4.......19........20.......22.........9.........1.......75 1977-78.....0.........7.......23.......28.......28........13.........1.....100 1976-77.....3........17.......27.......31........19...........8........3.....108 1975-76.....2..........1.......21.......29.......16.........13........2.......84 1974-75.....3.........8.......16........18.......17.........16.........9.......87 1973-74.....0.........2.......16........19.......25........11.........1.......74 1972-73.....1..........9........9........18.......19..........2........0.......58 1971-72.....0.........5.......11........21........25........16........4.......82 1970-71.....0.........4.......20.......28.......15.........10........0.......77 1969-70.....2.........9.......26.......30.......24.......14........2.....107 1968-69.....0.........2.......27.......23.......23.......20........1.......96 1967-68.....0........12.......15.......25.......25.......12.........1.......90 1966-67......1..........5.......21.......20.......25.......16.........1.......89 1965-66.....2.........7........18.......24.......21........13.........1.......85 1964-65.....0.........5.......19.......28.......22........12.........1.......87 1963-64.....0.........3.......27.......20.......26........13........4.......93 1962-63......1.........3.......23.......25.......26.......12.........1.......91 1961-62......0.........6.......23.......27.......23.......12.........1.......92 1960-61......0.........4.......28.......28.......15.......12.........0.......87 1959-60.....0.........7........18.......24.......24.......25.........1.......99 1958-59.....0.........5.......27.......25.......24.......18.........0.......89 1957-58.....0.........6........16.......24.......23.........9.........1.......79 1956-57.....0........12........14.......29.......22.......10.........3.......90 1955-56.....0.........8........27.......27.......19.......20.........3.....104 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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