March 2021

[donsutherland1]

Clouds and fog broke in parts of the region today sending temperatures into the middle and upper 60s. Other parts of the region remained locked in clouds and fog with temperatures being held to near 60°.

Where there was sunshine on Long Island, as well as parts of northern New England and Quebec, daily record high temperatures were set. Records included:

Burlington: 73° (old record: 68°, 1987 and 1996)
Islip: 67° (old record: 66°, 1987)
Montreal: 69° (old record: 62°, 1996)
Quebec City: 54° (old record: 50°, 2010)
Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 56° (old record: 45°, 2010)
Sherbrooke, QC: 71° (old record: 51°, 2009)
Trois-Rivières, QC: 58° (old record: 52°, 2010)
Westhampton, NY: 66° (old record: 59°, 2017)

Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day so far this year. Daily high temperature records could be approached or broken. Highs in the region will reach the lower to middle 70s with some upper 70s in places. Some showers and even thundershowers are possible.

A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures remains underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Some of the guidance suggests that a cold shot and at least some snow could affect northern New England near the end of March.

April could start out on the cool side. However, historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +8.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.042 today.

On March 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.484 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.277 (RMM).

The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. However, some of the recent guidance shows a fairly strong cold shot in early April, so there remains some possibility that the City's last freeze might not have occurred.

April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.9° (2.4° above normal).

 

[Intensewind002]

Was really nice today early on, had a high of 64 here. Now it's foggy as hell out, visibility was from a .25 mile to maybe as low as a tenth of a mile when I was driving home from work around 7pm

[bluewave]

Funny how we are getting the big -NAO drop to start April just like last year. This will also be the 2nd March in row with no measurable snowfall. It’s the first 2 consecutive Marches with just a T in NYC since 1945 and 1946.
 

2020  3 23  1.175
2020  3 24  1.233
2020  3 25  1.029
2020  3 26  0.781
2020  3 27  0.404
2020  3 28 -0.079
2020  3 29 -0.169
2020  3 30 -0.132
2020  3 31 -0.390
2020  4  1 -1.168
2020  4  2 -1.453
2020  4  3 -1.450
2020  4  4 -1.502
2020  4  5 -1.612
2020  4  6 -1.250
2020  4  7 -0.916
2020  4  8 -1.010
2020  4  9 -1.124

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2012	0.0	0
-	1903	0.0	0
-	1878	0.0	0
4	2021	T	7
-	2020	T	0
-	2010	T	0
-	2008	T	0
-	2002	T	0
-	1995	T	0
-	1988	T	0
-	1986	T	0
-	1983	T	0
-	1979	T	0
-	1966	T	0
-	1946	T	0
-	1945	T	0

 

[uncle W]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Funny how we are getting the big -NAO drop to start April just like last year. This will also be the 2nd March in row with no measurable snowfall. It’s the first 2 consecutive Marches with just a T in NYC since 1945 and 1946.
 

2020  3 23  1.175
2020  3 24  1.233
2020  3 25  1.029
2020  3 26  0.781
2020  3 27  0.404
2020  3 28 -0.079
2020  3 29 -0.169
2020  3 30 -0.132
2020  3 31 -0.390
2020  4  1 -1.168
2020  4  2 -1.453
2020  4  3 -1.450
2020  4  4 -1.502
2020  4  5 -1.612
2020  4  6 -1.250
2020  4  7 -0.916
2020  4  8 -1.010
2020  4  9 -1.124

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2012	0.0	0
-	1903	0.0	0
-	1878	0.0	0
4	2021	T	7
-	2020	T	0
-	2010	T	0
-	2008	T	0
-	2002	T	0
-	1995	T	0
-	1988	T	0
-	1986	T	0
-	1983	T	0
-	1979	T	0
-	1966	T	0
-	1946	T	0
-	1945	T	0

 

1945-46 Was a snowy December and February winter...before my time...I know hard to believe...

[uncle W]

40 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Was really nice today early on, had a high of 64 here. Now it's foggy as hell out, visibility was from a .25 mile to maybe as low as a tenth of a mile when I was driving home from work around 7pm

Living in SW Brooklyn we had many warm mornings and colder afternoons as the wind shifted from the west to south to southeast...the south shore of Staten Island where I live now is similar...the worst is when it gets foggy like you discribed above...I remember freezing a few times when I went to Coney Island at night...

[Allsnow]

We were due for March snow regression 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Unusually high number of 60° days for Long Island in March. We moved into 3rd place today at 6 days. Tomorrow will be day 7 with the big warm up.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 60	Missing Count
1	2016	10	0
-	2012	10	0
2	2010	7	0
-	2003	7	0
-	1987	7	0
3	1986	6	0
	2021	6	7
4	2020	5	0
-	2002	5	0
-	2000	5	0
-	1998	5	0
-	1995	5	0
-	1979	5	0
-	1977	5	0
-	1973	5	0

tomorrow will tie 2010

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We were due for March snow regression 

if it means a snowy February, I'm all for it!

lol you keep getting weenied

 

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of March are averaging 55degs.(46/65), or +8.0.

Wind and T should peak near 3pm-4pm at 25mph+ and 76* under variable skies, and back to the 50's by 10pm.

GFS/EURO still 'duking it out' over the snow chances.       It is back on the GFS---off on the EURO.      CMC has been an observer only---wait till the hurricane season starts for its headfakes.

March to date is  43.2[+1.7].         March should end at  45.4[+2.9].

50*(99%RH) here at 6am, some ground fog.    52* at 7am.      FOG <0.2 since 7am.   52* still at 8am.     50* briefly at 9:30am.       59* at 11am,  fog gone, just cloudy.      62* by Noon and some sun.           70* by 2pm.         Reached 78* with 30%RH at 3:45pm.       70* by 7pm.       65* by 8pm.      60* by 10pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

A day of near record and record high temperatures is in store. Today will become partly to mostly sunny, windy, and very warm. Winds could gust past 40 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 70s in most of the region. Some areas could approach or reach 80°. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 76°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 80°

Daily records include: 

Allentown: 74°, 1963

Bridgeport: 70°, 1954

Islip: 65°, 1976

New York City-JFK: 67°, 1954

New York City-LGA: 72°, 1943

New York City-NYC: 76°, 1922

Newark: 73°, 1943 and 1986

Philadelphia: 80°, 1921

Poughkeepsie: 75°, 1949 and 1963

Westhampton: 67°, 1954

White Plains: 76°, 1963

A cooler weekend will follow.

[gravitylover]

This is some seriously dense fog. A couple of hundred feet visibility tops, I haven't been out but I can't see the end of the neighbors yards across the street and that's about 300 feet away.

[Big Jims Videos]

Oz and 6z gfs worlds apart for next weekend and beyond 6z moves the low out in a hurry allowing for actual spring not horrible awful mist cold misery 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Oz and 6z gfs worlds apart for next weekend and beyond 6z moves the low out in a hurry allowing for actual spring not horrible awful mist cold misery 

maybe some snow chances in early April

 

[SRRTA22]

Chilly with a cold NE wind here in Jersey City

55f and cloudy

[weathermedic]

52 with a SW wind and fog in Sheepshead Bay

[Rjay]

53

[bluewave]

Temperatures are off the the races behind the warm front. Newark at 69° now. That’s a 10° jump in just 2 hours.

 

26 Mar 10:51 am	69	63	81		SSW	14G25		9.00		BKN017,OVC023	29.65	1004.6	29.67
26 Mar 9:51 am	65	61	87		S	9		10.00		BKN017,BKN023,OVC110	29.69	1006.1	29.71
26 Mar 8:51 am	58	55	90			3

[MJO812]

NAO and AO taking a nosedive next week

 

Lets see how long the NAO will stay negative 

[Snowlover11]

57 with a south wind at 9

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Temperatures are off the the races behind the warm front. Newark at 69° now. That’s a 10° jump in just 2 hours.

 

26 Mar 10:51 am	69	63	81		SSW	14G25		9.00		BKN017,OVC023	29.65	1004.6	29.67
26 Mar 9:51 am	65	61	87		S	9		10.00		BKN017,BKN023,OVC110	29.69	1006.1	29.71
26 Mar 8:51 am	58	55	90			3

There was a big difference between LGA (55°) and EWR (69°) at 11 am.

[FPizz]

Just hit 75

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There was a big difference between LGA (55°) and EWR (69°) at 11 am.

74° now at Newark.  
 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLOUDY    61  56  83 E3        29.69F
LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY    62  55  77 S7        29.66F
Kennedy Intl   NOT AVBL
Newark Liberty PTSUNNY   74  64  71 SW15G28   29.64F

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

74° now at Newark.  
 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLOUDY    61  56  83 E3        29.69F
LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY    62  55  77 S7        29.66F
Kennedy Intl   NOT AVBL
Newark Liberty PTSUNNY   74  64  71 SW15G28   29.64F

That surpasses the daily record of 73° from 1986.

[doncat]

76° here currently....windy.

[CIK62]

Looking like this at Noon.      I was 62* at Noon.     I have 65* with sun at 12:30pm. 

 

 

[bluewave]

80° at Newark and 77° in NYC

Newark Liberty MOSUNNY   80  58  46 W31G40  

Central Park   MOSUNNY   77  59  53 MISG    

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

80° at Newark and 77° in NYC

Newark Liberty MOSUNNY   80  58  46 W31G40  

Central Park   MOSUNNY   77  59  53 MISG    

You will want to pay attention to the wind gusts today.  Many gusts here from 35-40 mph.  Highest gust is 49 mph so far.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

You will want to pay attention to the wind gusts today.  Many gusts here from 35-40 mph.  Highest gust is 49 mph so far.

Some peak gusts around 60 mph to your west. I posted them in the other thread.

Cambria County...
Johnstown Airport            62 MPH    1026 AM 03/26   ASOS   

 

[donsutherland1]

1 pm:

JFK: 59 °

LGA: 71 °

NYC: 77 °  (new daily record)

EWR: 80 °  (new daily record)

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 81/DP 61