March 2021

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the spread in minimum temperatures 32 or lower between NYC and Newark NJ is getting large

This was the warmest winter at Newark that recorded 45”+ of snow.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	DJF Avg Temp
1	1996-04-30	78.4	31.6°
2	1961-04-30	73.5	30.8°
3	2011-04-30	68.2	32.9°
4	1978-04-30	64.9	28.6°
5	1994-04-30	64.5	31.0°
6	2014-04-30	61.1	31.3°
7	1958-04-30	58.3	32.8°
8	1967-04-30	57.3	34.3°
9	2003-04-30	53.1	30.7°
10	1948-04-30	51.0	28.9°
11	2010-04-30	47.9	33.7°
12	2004-04-30	47.8	31.8°
13	2015-04-30	46.4	30.4°
14	2021-04-30	45.7	35.2°

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Some early signs of a hot summer with the dry weather and overperforming temperatures. 

We also don't have the typical spring -NAO/AO that we've been seeing lately.

We finally cashed in during the winter with that combo

 

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

We finally cashed in during the winter with that combo

 

i am annoyed that a few nyc weather forecasters said we had 28 inches of snow this winter they did not add the snow we had just a few days before winter officially began..

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i am annoyed that a few nyc weather forecasters said we had 28 inches of snow this winter they did not add the snow we had just a few days before winter officially began..

also the snow season aint the same as the winter season, they should just talk about the snow season.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i am annoyed that a few nyc weather forecasters said we had 28 inches of snow this winter they did not add the snow we had just a few days before winter officially began..

Compared to even a decade ago, an increasing share of TV weather has essentially become little more than “fast food” of weather, though there remain exceptions. On many stations, it is no longer substantive (details and time spent discussing weather developments have decreased even as the impact of weather has not). On air expertise is sometimes superficial.

One sees fewer degreed meteorologists involved. Likely, on account of fewer degreed meteorologists being involved, when it comes to discussions of such things a precipitation type issues, one never sees the deployment of even a single sounding chart to illustrate what is going on aloft. Hence, an avoidable public misperception that it is ‘cold enough’ for snow persists even when there is too much warm air aloft.

This is an unfortunate situation. I always advise my friends and co-workers to follow the National Weather Service if they really want a forecast they can rely on. I continue to be impressed by the dedication and expertise possessed by those within the region (ALY, BOX, OKX, and PHI). 

[Uniblab]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Compared to even a decade ago, an increasing share of TV weather has essentially become little more than “fast food” of weather, though there remain exceptions. On many stations, it is no longer substantive (details and time spent discussing weather developments have decreased even as the impact of weather has not). On air expertise is sometimes superficial.

One sees fewer degreed meteorologists involved. Likely, on account of fewer degreed meteorologists being involved, when it comes to discussions of such things a precipitation type issues, one never sees the deployment of even a single sounding chart to illustrate what is going on aloft. Hence, an avoidable public misperception that it is ‘cold enough’ for snow persists even when there is too much warm air aloft.

This is an unfortunate situation. I always advise my friends and co-workers to follow the National Weather Service if they really want a forecast they can rely on. I continue to be impressed by the dedication and expertise possessed by those within the region (ALY, BOX, OKX, and PHI). 

Never rely on weather on air personalities. 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This was the warmest winter at Newark that recorded 45”+ of snow.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	DJF Avg Temp
1	1996-04-30	78.4	31.6°
2	1961-04-30	73.5	30.8°
3	2011-04-30	68.2	32.9°
4	1978-04-30	64.9	28.6°
5	1994-04-30	64.5	31.0°
6	2014-04-30	61.1	31.3°
7	1958-04-30	58.3	32.8°
8	1967-04-30	57.3	34.3°
9	2003-04-30	53.1	30.7°
10	1948-04-30	51.0	28.9°
11	2010-04-30	47.9	33.7°
12	2004-04-30	47.8	31.8°
13	2015-04-30	46.4	30.4°
14	2021-04-30	45.7	35.2°

1957-58 and 2009-10 had less days with a minimum 32 or lower than this year...

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Compared to even a decade ago, an increasing share of TV weather has essentially become little more than “fast food” of weather, though there remain exceptions. On many stations, it is no longer substantive (details and time spent discussing weather developments have decreased even as the impact of weather has not). On air expertise is sometimes superficial.

One sees fewer degreed meteorologists involved. Likely, on account of fewer degreed meteorologists being involved, when it comes to discussions of such things a precipitation type issues, one never sees the deployment of even a single sounding chart to illustrate what is going on aloft. Hence, an avoidable public misperception that it is ‘cold enough’ for snow persists even when there is too much warm air aloft.

This is an unfortunate situation. I always advise my friends and co-workers to follow the National Weather Service if they really want a forecast they can rely on. I continue to be impressed by the dedication and expertise possessed by those within the region (ALY, BOX, OKX, and PHI). 

there's really no need to anymore.   You have smart phones with weather apps built in, the internet-so much more information available at anytime of the day. Gone are the days you had to wait til a 6:20pm weather forecast on Channel 7.    With that said, even the local newscasts as a whole are becoming obsolete.    It's basically a readback of information most have read online during the day....

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Some early signs of a hot summer with the dry weather and overperforming temperatures. 

We also don't have the typical spring -NAO/AO that we've been seeing lately.

I agree-day after day of clear skies and little  rain this month....

[winterwx21]

34 minutes ago, Uniblab said:

Never rely on weather on air personalities. 

There are a few good ones that have full meteorology degrees like Lee Goldberg, Jeff Smith and Nick Gregory. But not many. Most other weather on air personalities in this area are terrible.

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

There are a few good ones that have full meteorology degrees like Lee Goldberg, Jeff Smith and Nick Gregory. But not many. Most other weather on air personalities in this area are terrible.

I haven't watched a weather newscast in years.   

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Compared to even a decade ago, an increasing share of TV weather has essentially become little more than “fast food” of weather, though there remain exceptions. On many stations, it is no longer substantive (details and time spent discussing weather developments have decreased even as the impact of weather has not). On air expertise is sometimes superficial.

One sees fewer degreed meteorologists involved. Likely, on account of fewer degreed meteorologists being involved, when it comes to discussions of such things a precipitation type issues, one never sees the deployment of even a single sounding chart to illustrate what is going on aloft. Hence, an avoidable public misperception that it is ‘cold enough’ for snow persists even when there is too much warm air aloft.

This is an unfortunate situation. I always advise my friends and co-workers to follow the National Weather Service if they really want a forecast they can rely on. I continue to be impressed by the dedication and expertise possessed by those within the region (ALY, BOX, OKX, and PHI). 

mass media has become fast food trash food in general, when you have all the major news companies owned by a few megacorporations, trash news is what you will get and luckily the new generation will have none of it

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Uniblab said:

Never rely on weather on air personalities. 

applies to mass media in general

[bluewave]

Another low dewpoint special today.

Central Park   SUNNY     62  13  14 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Another low dewpoint special today.

Central Park   SUNNY     62  13  14 

this weather is awesome

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this weather is awesome

The lack of clouds, rain, and humidity has been impressive around the region for March.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The lack of clouds, rain, and humidity has been impressive around the region for March.

 

Maybe we are headed into a cyclic dry period for awhile?  It's about time.

 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models have been in push back mode recently. We were supposed to get the soaking rain last week. But the heaviest rains went to our south. Models had another soaker for us later next week. But now much of the moisture is forecast to stay  to our west. So we get a nice warm up and windy conditions. We’ll see if the Euro can finally deliver some soaking rains near the end of the month or that one gets pushed back also.

 

Chris, when do you think the next time is that we might see some clouds?  I dont often see cloudiness forecasts on here but it might be appropriate considering we've had blue skies for a few days now.

 

[CIK62]

For a quick guess on cloud cover look for 700mb RH>70%.       This would have some clouds on Wed.,  and on Thurs./Fri. for sure.   Also next week at this time again.

btw:  T's for the rest of the month on the GFS are 53degs.(45/61), or about +7.0.

 

[uncle W]

back in March 1983 the city was thinking about drought restrictions...after a few deluges in March and april flood warnings were issued instead...

[donsutherland1]

Under brilliant sunshine and a cloudless sky, the temperature soared into the lower 60s in New York City. The New York Botanical Garden has taken on an increasingly springlike appearance. It won’t be too much longer before the cherry trees begin to bloom.

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, uncle W said:

back in March 1983 the city was thinking about drought restrictions...after a few deluges in March and april flood warnings were issued instead...

and a record late snowfall on April 19-20 at JFK and Long Island followed by one of the hottest summers of all time.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

For a quick guess on cloud cover look for 700mb RH>70%.       This would have some clouds on Wed.,  and on Thurs./Fri. for sure.   Also next week at this time again.

btw:  T's for the rest of the month on the GFS are 53degs.(45/61), or about +7.0.

 

I actually see clouds right now in the southern part of the sky.  It's still mostly sunny, but obviously not completely clear.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I actually see clouds right now in the southern part of the sky.  It's still mostly sunny, but obviously not completely clear.

There are a few high clouds in the East in southern Westchester County.

[dWave]

Theres a brush fire in pelham bay park..around where Pelham pkwy passes I 95

[dWave]

Damn its actually quite a large fire on that huge hill which is a former landfill. At the end of pelham pkwy just before the birdge toward Orchard beach/city island. Hard to access up there. Thick smoke into co op city, more moderate into Pelham/New Rochelle.

Also nearby a fire on Stillwell Ave & Pelham pkwy S

[donsutherland1]

Today the temperature rose into the lower and even middle 60s across much of the region. As a result, New York City's monthly temperature departure has now moved above the normal figure through March 21.

A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and continued mild. It will be a little cooler than today. Up north, there is potential for near record to record warm temperatures in eastern Canada tomorrow and Tuesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +8.85 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.288 today.

The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 could be New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes.

April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018.

Select April Statistics:

1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1
1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3
1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2
1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0
1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0

Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013

Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926

Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015

Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901

Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020

Most days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (2.1° above normal).

 

[tristateweatherFB]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Damn its actually quite a large fire on that huge hill which is a former landfill. At the end of pelham pkwy just before the birdge toward Orchard beach/city island. Hard to access up there. Thick smoke into co op city, more moderate into Pelham/New Rochelle.

Also nearby a fire on Stillwell Ave & Pelham pkwy S

I lived in the Pelham parkway section for many years.  They kept saying they were going to build something on that land. What’s burning a lot of brush?

[donsutherland1]

46 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

I lived in the Pelham parkway section for many years.  They kept saying they were going to build something on that land. What’s burning a lot of brush?

Hopefully, at some point, that area will be cleaned and converted into a park with playing fields, a track or walking trail, among other options if it is the site I believe it is. 

[Rtd208]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The models have been in push back mode recently. We were supposed to get the soaking rain last week. But the heaviest rains went to our south. Models had another soaker for us later next week. But now much of the moisture is forecast to stay  to our west. So we get a nice warm up and windy conditions. We’ll see if the Euro can finally deliver some soaking rains near the end of the month or that one gets pushed back also.

 

Its a shame things have dried up for late week, we could really use the rain. We could be headed towards a "3 H" summer here with light precipitation amounts until tropical season really kicks into gear in August. We'll see