March 2021

[donsutherland1]

SPC’s day 1 convective outlook:

[nyrangers1022]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

SPC’s day 1 convective outlook:

The new tornado alley

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be rainy, as a developing storm moves eastward and then offshore tomorrow night. As colder air pushes in, rain will change to snow in parts of the Northeast.

There will likely be an area of 2"-4" snowfall with some local amounts of 6" over in an area running through New England, including Boston and Worcester. There is a chance that the rain could end as a period of snow or flurries even in New York City and its nearby suburbs.

The coming weekend will likely mark the start of a warming trend. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The AO reached +3.000 on March 10. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. Most of the guidance favors the development of warmer conditions that would continue through the remainder of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -2.68 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.288 today. The AO's 5-day change from its March 12 peak of +5.656 is -5.994. That is the 4th largest 5-day decline on record. The only higher cases occurred during November 8-13, 1959 (-6.439), January 20-25, 1976 (-6.036), and January 19-24, 1976 (-5.997). Daily recordkeeping began on January 1, 1950.

On March 16 the MJO data was unavailable.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.7° (1.2° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be rainy, as a developing storm moves eastward and then offshore tomorrow night. As colder air pushes in, rain will change to snow in parts of the Northeast.

There will likely be an area of 2"-4" snowfall with some local amounts of 6" over in an area running through New England, including Boston and Worcester. There is a chance that the rain could end as a period of snow or flurries even in New York City and its nearby suburbs.

The coming weekend will likely mark the start of a warming trend. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The AO reached +3.000 on March 10. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. Most of the guidance favors the development of warmer conditions that would continue through the remainder of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -2.68 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.288 today. The AO's 5-day change from its March 12 peak of +5.656 is -5.994. That is the 4th largest 5-day decline on record. The only higher cases occurred during November 8-13, 1959 (-6.439), January 20-25, 1976 (-6.036), and January 19-24, 1976 (-5.997). Daily recordkeeping began on January 1, 1950.

On March 16 the MJO data was unavailable.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.7° (1.2° above normal).

 

Don what makes you think that there's very little chance of something like April 2003 happening this year?  I dont think at this time in 2003 we thought that something like that would happen either.  Sometimes we get a surprise snow even in the middle of a mild pattern and those things can't be forecast more than 24-48 hours in advance.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like we are on track for a warmer than normal March. While the departures won’t be a s high as last year, it would be the 2nd warmer March in a row. This is a departure from previous years when March was a reliably colder month. We also saw record warmth in November which has also been a colder month recently.

 

Better to have a snowy February.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.(39/55), or about +3.0.

Month to date is 40.2[0.0].       The rest of the month is averaging 50.5(42/59).     March would end at 44.8[+2.3], with these figures.

Snow is gone from all but the GFS for Friday AM.      Starting the 23rd. the GFS is all 60's for the high T's and nothing lower than 40*.       Earliest drop off in the 850mb T's is the 30th., so one day in the 30's might be pulled off then.

44*(88*RH) here at 6am.          47* by Noon.      45* at 8pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds pounded parts of the Gulf Region yesterday. Today, the focus of the severe weather will stretch from Georgia, across the Carolinas, and into Virginia before moving offshore.

At 7:50 am, an area of rain was advancing into eastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. Rain will develop this morning in most of the region. Precipitation will likely total 0.50”-1.50” from Philadelphia to Boston with some locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00”. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 50°

Newark: 50°

Philadelphia: 52°

As colder air presses southward tonight, rain will change to snow across central New York State and central New England. That snow will push southward. There will be an area of 2”-4” snowfall with locally higher amounts in parts of New England, including Boston and Worcester. The rain could end as a period of snow or flurries even in New York City and its nearby suburbs.

A pronounced warming trend will likely commence during the weekend. As a result, there is a chance that the coming weekend could see Central Park’s last freeze of the 2020-21 season.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds pounded parts of the Gulf Region yesterday. Today, the focus of the severe weather will stretch from Georgia, across the Carolinas, and into Virginia before moving offshore.

At 7:50 am, an area of rain was advancing into eastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. Rain will develop this morning in most of the region. Precipitation will likely total 0.50”-1.50” from Philadelphia to Boston with some locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00”. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 50°

Newark: 50°

Philadelphia: 52°

As colder air presses southward tonight, rain will change to snow across central New York State and central New England. That snow will push southward. There will be an area of 2”-4” snowfall with locally higher amounts in parts of New England, including Boston and Worcester. The rain could end as a period of snow or flurries even in New York City and its nearby suburbs.

A pronounced warming trend will likely commence during the weekend. As a result, there is a chance that the coming weekend could see Central Park’s last freeze of the 2020-21 season.

Looks like Boston will finally pull ahead of NYC in snowfall.  I knew a 0.2" lead was way too fragile to hold.

 

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what makes you think that there's very little chance of something like April 2003 happening this year?  I dont think at this time in 2003 we thought that something like that would happen either.  Sometimes we get a surprise snow even in the middle of a mild pattern and those things can't be forecast more than 24-48 hours in advance.

 

It’s too soon for me to make any calls about snowfall for April. I do think this will be the last chance for snowfall in March given the forecast pattern and strong consensus on the guidance about warmer conditions for the remainder of the month beginning Sunday. 

[MJO812]

Disappointing that Central Park will not hit 40 inches for the winter.  I think we missed out on 3 opportunities in January with suppression. 

Not complaining since this was the best winter since 2017-2018.  The last time I seen a foot or more of snow in one storm was in 2016.

[NEG NAO]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Disappointing that Central Park will not hit 40 inches for the winter.  I think we missed out on 3 opportunities in January with suppression. 

Not complaining since this was the best winter since 2017-2018.  The last time I seen a foot or more of snow in one storm was in 2016.

only need 1.4 inches and still at least  4 weeks to get - don't have to accumulate it all in one event............

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

only need 1.4 inches and still at least  4 weeks to get - don't have to accumulate it all in one event............

Gets harder and harder to get snow each day in March. A chance but a slim one.

[Allsnow]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Better to have a snowy February.

 

This! March is one of the worst months of the year. I’m glad we didn’t get snow this month and we used it all in February 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This! March is one of the worst months of the year. I’m glad we didn’t get snow this month and we used it all in February 

Odd winter-Jan and March snowless, Feb rocked

[Santa Claus]

today, a much-needed soaking rain which will wake up all sorts of noxious weeds and awful biting insects filled with disease.  nature is healing.

 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Better to have a snowy February.

 

March has had an inverse relationship to February snowfall since the snowier era began in 2003.  All the 20”+ Februaries had under 4” during March in NYC. The under 5" Februaries generally had a nice rebound in March like in 2018. 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Feb	Mar
2010	36.9	T
2014	29.0	0.1
2006	26.9	1.3
2003	26.1	3.5
2021	26.0	T

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Feb	Mar
2020	T	T
2012	0.2	0.0
2004	0.7	4.8
2019	2.6	10.4
2007	3.8	6.0
2016	4.0	0.9
2009	4.3	8.3
2011	4.8	1.0
2018	4.9	11.6

 

[JustinRP37]

33 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

today, a much-needed soaking rain which will wake up all sorts of noxious weeds and awful biting insects filled with disease.  nature is healing.

 

Some of those biting insects and arthropods keep some of us paid! But this season does have the markings for an above average tick season. 

[Cfa]

0.01” 

First measurable precip since March 1st, 17 days ago.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Odd winter-Jan and March snowless, Feb rocked

And we had a nice December snowstorm this winter. Very good winter overall, despite January being snowless. 44 inches so far here in Piscataway. It looks as if it's over now that the models have dropped the early friday morning back end snow accumulation and we're going into a mild pattern for this weekend and next week, but of course we can't completely rule out something for the end of March and early April. It would be nice to see Central Park get to 40 inches, as Anthony said, but many other areas (especially just west of the city) did hit 40 inches. I'm very happy with the 44 inches here. Well above average.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

This! March is one of the worst months of the year. I’m glad we didn’t get snow this month and we used it all in February 

I agree that March is a bad month, but to me April takes the top prize.  Some snow in March makes it at least interesting.  Otherwise we have today, 40s and rain.  

[Snowshack]

51 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And we had a nice December snowstorm this winter. Very good winter overall, despite January being snowless. 44 inches so far here in Piscataway. It looks as if it's over now that the models have dropped the early friday morning back end snow accumulation and we're going into a mild pattern for this weekend and next week, but of course we can't completely rule out something for the end of March and early April. It would be nice to see Central Park get to 40 inches, as Anthony said, but many other areas (especially just west of the city) did hit 40 inches. I'm very happy with the 44 inches here. Well above average.

36" here on LI north shore.   I think calling it a very good winter is a bit generous.   We basically had the one week in December kicked off by the snow (but erased by the usual Grinch) and then three great weeks in Feb.   Overall very good when compared to the last two stinker years,  but this year still leaves that less than satisfying feel, to me at least.  

Hoping we can get a year to kick off in mid-December and run snowy through the holidays for a change.   

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

36" here on LI north shore.   I think calling it a very good winter is a bit generous.   We basically had the one week in December kicked off by the snow (but erased by the usual Grinch) and then three great weeks in Feb.   Overall very good when compared to the last two stinker years,  but this year still leaves that less than satisfying feel, to me at least.  

Hoping we can get a year to kick off in mid-December and run snowy through the holidays for a change.   

I have 40” here (maybe a little more) so I definitely can’t say that’s a disappointment. 30” of it came in 3 weeks but seems like we get these boom and bust periods more often now. 

[Cfa]

33.8” here, almost 10” above normal.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Snowshack said:

36" here on LI north shore.   I think calling it a very good winter is a bit generous.   We basically had the one week in December kicked off by the snow (but erased by the usual Grinch) and then three great weeks in Feb.   Overall very good when compared to the last two stinker years,  but this year still leaves that less than satisfying feel, to me at least.  

Hoping we can get a year to kick off in mid-December and run snowy through the holidays for a change.   

I had snow cover for almost 4 weeks straight. I can't remember the last time we had snow on the ground for that long.  That is extremely unusual for this area. It was deep, deep winter for almost a month, so I have to say this was a very good winter.

[nycwinter]

this is a bust  some models had us close to 2 inches in this storm we wont even get a inch..

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

this is a bust  some models had us close to 2 inches in this storm we wont even get a inch..

dry begets dry

[NorthShoreWx]

41.9" total for the winter here. We've been in a good place this winter relative to east, west and south.

18z NAM is back to light accumulating snowfall on LI overnight after having had it and dropped it over successive runs.  We'll see.

[uncle W]

this winter was very good...anytime you get close to 40" and a major snowstorm its good...this winter had a little or a lot of combined analogs talked about before the winter...December and February being the main winter months...2007-08 was in the mix...this year was 2007-08 on steriods...1973-74 was in there...December 16-17 had the great ice storm...2020 was mostly snow...the first week in February 1974 had measurable snow on five of the first 8 days...this year was similar but much snowier...1966-67 and 2005-06 was mentioned as analogs...if you pick the right analogs you can come up with a better forecast than seasonal models....going in I was thinking 20-25" of snow...after the December storm I raised expectations...

[Santa Claus]

7 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Some of those biting insects and arthropods keep some of us paid! But this season does have the markings for an above average tick season. 

ticks: nature's second-worst animal.

after watching my boss go through Lyme i became a militant tick-checker.  everyone should if you have a chance to be exposed.

given the progression of weather around here i assume the tick problem is just going to get more extreme every year.

[donsutherland1]

Colder air will press southward tonight. As the temperature falls, rain will change to snow in parts of the Northeast. Precipitation will likely total 0.50" - 1.50" from Philadelphia to Boston with some higher amounts.

There could still be an area of 1"-3" snowfall with some locally higher amounts in an area running through New England, that could include Boston and/or Worcester. There is a chance that the rain could end as a period of snow or flurries even in New York City and its nearby suburbs.

The coming weekend will likely mark the start of a warming trend. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The AO reached +3.000 on March 10. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. Most of the guidance favors the development of warmer conditions that would continue through the remainder of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -2.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.117 today.

On March 17 the MJO data was unavailable. MJO data will no longer be posted until the data is again available.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.0° (1.5° above normal).