March 2021

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive set of records for Cheyenne. NYC had its record all-time snowstorm in January 2016. October 2011 featured the biggest October snowstorm. So it’s quite a feat to pull this of in the same season. 
 

Upon further review, the 2-day snow observation of 30.8" fell 1.1" short of the 2 day record of 31.9" set in 1949. However, we did break the 1 day record for snowfall at Cheyenne with 22.7"

 

 

 

Didn't Cheyenne get over 36" from this storm?

 

[wdrag]

I hope there is something behind this week for NYC, tho I don't see it right now.  If NYC can't muster more than a T this week,  the season might be done, barring extraordinary changes in the upper air pattern in April.  

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 45degs.(37/53), or about +1.0.

A Trace of Snow still showing on all main models.        Crazy daily T swings of 30+ degrees for several days on EURO looks suspect.(24>59,27>67,30>66) Cafe Wha?

32* (33%RH)here at 6am. (34* at midnight)        35* by 10am.        37* by 4pm.       39* by 9pm and ground is wet.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

At weak system will move eastward across the region. It will be mostly cloudy and cold. A period of light rain or snow is possible in parts of the region, especially during the afternoon or early evening. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and the lower 40s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 40°

Newark: 41°

Philadelphia: 43°

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and milder. Overall, the March 16-19 period remains a period of opportunity for at least some snowfall in parts of the region. The next system will be a late-week developing nor’easter that could bring a period of accumulating snow to central and northern New England. A pronounced warming trend will likely commence during the weekend. As a result, there is a chance that the coming weekend could see Central Park’s last freeze of the 2020-21 season.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't Cheyenne get over 36" from this storm?

 

The 36” amount was taken by the public. It wasn’t the city’s official measurement.

Time: 2021-03-14T21:11:00Z UTC
Event: 36.0 HEAVY SNOW
Source: PUBLIC

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

ended up being a three footer at Cheyenne and over 27" at Denver their 4th largest on record.

Interesting that Denver's biggest March snowstorm was in March 2003, when they had over 30"....that also came at the tail end of a big drought like this one did, and we had a snowstorm in April a few weeks later after a pretty dry March (which came after a great February)...think we can do it again?

2002-03  Dec (above average snow), Jan (below average snow) Feb (much above average snow) Mar (below average snow) 

2020-21 Dec (above average snow), Jan (below average snow), Feb (much above average snow), Mar (below average snow)

Granted 2002-03 was much better than this season and one of the elite winters we've had. (graded as A+)

 

 

The long-term pattern evolution appears quite different from that of 2003. I suspect that this week could offer the last meaningful opportunity for a little snow in and around New York City. Even that is not assured.

[ILoveWinter]

We had a top 7 or 8 (?) February in NYC so while not receiving any more snow is a slight disappointment, I'd choose this sort of winter over the past several (even with the numerous March snow events within them) in a heartbeat.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

We had a top 7 or 8 (?) February in NYC so while not receiving any more snow is a slight disappointment, I'd choose this sort of winter over the past several (even with the numerous March snow events within them) in a heartbeat.

and we could pick up 0.5-1 inch tonight and another 0.5-1 inch on Friday quite easily.

 

[bluewave]

One last shot of winter into the weekend  before spring tries to make a return next week.

 

 

[JustinRP37]

This has been quite the impressive little cold snap. The winds were really sustained for quite some time. It would have been plenty cold for ski areas to pump out more snow, but in southern NY and southern New England the return on investment just isn't there this time of year. Vermont is doing quite well though. After last week's warmth though I got spoiled. If it isn't going to snow, let's get back to warmth!

[bluewave]

The last 3 snowfall seasons had their most extreme snowfalls in the fall or spring. 17-18 featured the record breaking 30" of snow in March on Long Island. The 18-19 season had the best snows in November and March with very little for DJF. May 2020 tied with 1977 for the latest trace of snow following one the lowest seasonal snowfall totals.  This season we finally got our most interesting snowfall records in February. 

[MJO812]

Lightly snowing here in Brooklyn

[Rjay]

Flurries in Massapequa 

[Brian5671]

Cold day here-cloudy and temp of 29 not rising much since this AM

[crossbowftw3]

Here comes trouble.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

Look at this particular set of words as well

[donsutherland1]

Some flurries in Mamaroneck.

[SI Mailman]

flurries here on Staten Island

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Here comes trouble.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

Look at this particular set of words as well

 

That's a scary read. Batten down folks.

[MJO812]

Flurries here in Brooklyn

[donsutherland1]

Some snow flurries this evening:

 

[psv88]

Dusting of snow out in Suffolk 

[Cfa]

Graupel, I thought it was raining at first. First precip in 15 days.

[Rjay]

Dusting on the grass 

[donsutherland1]

A weak system touched off some scattered snow flurries today into this evening. Following the passage of today's weak system, tomorrow will likely see a return to sunshine and milder conditions. Nevertheless, the remainder of the March 16-19 period could still offer some opportunity for at least some snowfall in parts of the region as a developing nor'easter moves offshore Thursday night. There will likely be an area of 2"-4" snowfall with some local amounts of 6" over a part of New England, including Boston, Providence, and Worcester. There is some chance that the rain could end as a period of snow or flurries even in New York City and its nearby suburbs.

The coming weekend will likely mark the start of a new warming trend. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The AO reached +3.000 on March 10. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. Most of the guidance favors the development of warmer conditions that would continue through the remainder of the month.

Tomorrow could see greatly elevated CAPE in an area extending from eastern Texas across the Gulf States. Extreme CAPE levels are likely over a portion of the Gulf States. As a result, there will be a high probability of severe thunderstorms with hail and possible tornados in parts of that area, especially in the Gulf States. That risk of severe weather will then likely move into the Carolinas and Virginia on Thursday and then offshore afterward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -5.51 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.651 today.

On March 15 the MJO data was unavailable.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.7° (1.2° above normal).

 

[wishcast_hater]

Dusting of snow up here...everything covered to my surprise.

[jm1220]

Light snow/snow grains a few minutes ago. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 45degs.(37/52), or about +1.0.

All the main models have an inch or two of tail end snow Friday AM, a setup which usually fails anyway.      After that, AN T's and no precipitation for a week.

37*(85%RH) here at 6am.         40* by 10am.        44* by Noon.         47* at 1:30pm.          45* at 4pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today, the Gulf States will feature a significant outbreak of severe weather. Widespread severe thunderstorms will be likely. Those thunderstorms could bring large hail, damaging winds, and tornados. There is potential for at least one or more EF-3 or above tornados given the extreme CAPE that is forecast in some parts of the Gulf Region.

In the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, quieter weather will prevail. In the wake of yesterday’s weak system that brought flurries to parts of the region, today will be partly to mostly cloudy and milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 49°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 52°

On Thursday night, a developing nor’easter will move offshore. That storm will bring a swath of 2”-4” snowfall with locally higher amounts to parts of New England, including Boston, Providence, and Worcester. The rain could end as a period of snow or flurries even in New York City and its nearby suburbs.

A pronounced warming trend will likely commence during the weekend. As a result, there is a chance that the coming weekend could see Central Park’s last freeze of the 2020-21 season.

[wdrag]

3/31-4/8 may be of interest in the north half of our forum... we'll see if this holds. Combination of TC (both EPS/GEFS), weakening AO, NAO gradually heading neutral or negative, EPO heading neutral or negative, all for an extended period of time (at least a week) and the PNA possibly increasing a bit, may be the reason why the CFS is adding SD to the northern part of our area, inclusive of I80.  CFS has had eyes on the 19th from time to time.  

I'll want to see the CFS keep this period of 3/31-4/8 in its sights (one or 2 significant wintry events) as we head toward the end of March. 

[bluewave]

It looks like we are on track for a warmer than normal March. While the departures won’t be a s high as last year, it would be the 2nd warmer March in a row. This is a departure from previous years when March was a reliably colder month. We also saw record warmth in November which has also been a colder month recently.